Josh Pate picked the Miami Hurricanes to win the 2026 national championship in 2.0 of his season prediction days back.
Pate’s original bracket had Notre Dame taking home the hardware, but the college football analyst ultimately revisited his picks—and after fall camp and a deeper dive, he’s sold on Mario Cristobal and last year’s runner-up getting the job done this season.
One of the more-respected names in the commentating space, Pate is a diehard college football enthusiast—someone who turned his passion into his career—eating, breathing, drinking and seeing all things college ball 365 days a year.
As a result, his opinion weighs heavier than some of the other less-invasive, click-bait folks now invading the space.
While one man’s opinion is meaningless in the grand scheme of things—as countless talking-heads are giving their picks as this new season gets underway—Miami fans should at least take a minute to marinate on this recognition and appreciate where things have landed going into year five.
A few years back the Canes were consistently picked middle-of-the-pack in the Atlantic Coast Conference and now here’s Miami—top of mind and back atop college football—with a handful of unbiased professionals picking ‘The U’ to win this year’s national championship.
What a long, strange trip it’s been.
‘MIAMI’+’TITLE CONTENDERS’=SYNONYMOUS
It was a severe drought with a revolving door of head coaches before Cristobal came home—the University of Miami finally getting serious about football and investing big in athletics after the 2021 season, when it poached a two-time national champion and hometown hero after year four at Oregon—where money and resources had him turning the Ducks into a national power.
That said, good intentions, potential and a vision don’t change two decades-worth of problems over night—and it was a rocky start out the gate.
The loss to Middle Tennessee State year one and a lopsided six-touchdown shellacking at the hands of Florida State.
The non-kneel against Georgia Tech year two and a bowl season that ended with opt-outs and a loss to Rutgers.
The all-gas-no-brakes year three; a high-powered offense with zero defense as a College Football Playoffs berth slipped away after a regular season-ending choke-job at Syracuse.
There was incremental growth each season, but it barely felt measurable as there was nothing tangible to show for it—outside another win or two each passing year—until 2025.
Even year four even had its turning-point moment when Miami fell to 6-2 after an early-November road loss at SMU.
It felt like another promising season was fast-slipping away—a typical late-season collapse on the horizon—before a seven-game win streak saw the Hurricanes reaching the national championship game as a 10-seed and coming up a drive short against team-of-destiny, No. 1 Indiana.
While nobody could honestly say that leaving a title on the field was the best thing to happen to this program, there is something to be said for what happens next when you come up short of that ultimate goal—and that’s precisely how Miami enters year five of the Cristobal era.
HARDEST LESSONS OFTEN THE BEST ONES
Just like SMU turned out to be a blessing in disguise, there is a one-of-a-kind fuel that comes from losing to Indiana—as well as something Cristobal can now sell, as he rallies this team to go “1-0” every week and to get back to work.
Year five was always seen as the season the college football world saw the program as totally transformed; all the old recruits gone and roster full of his guys—a new culture established and all those broken things that led to the coaching change now firmly in the rear-view.
If that was the sentiment in a more-traditional era of college football, then what does that mean in this NIL era—where the Hurricanes are cash-flush, have an administration all-in on building a winner and secured the bag regarding the best-fit head coach for their program?
A tireless recruiter and an alpha dog who has said repeatedly he’ll die trying—Cristobal oft stating he can’t go to his grave without making Miami into “Miami” again?
This isn’t your father’s or uncle’s five-year plan for a rebuild, either—this is a perfect storm coming to fruition; a half-decade project with “limitless” focus, process and potential.
For those who are the “haves” in today’s game; money, resources, top-flight recruiting and development of players—it shouldn’t be lost on anyone why there is so much hype around these Hurricanes.
Perception has become reality and all of those best-case scenarios when Cristobal took over; they’re playing out in ways Miami fans could’ve only dreamed, while detractors of ‘The U’ stew in a sea of jealousy, bitterness and denial.
The college football world waxed poetic for years about how much better the sport would be if Miami was “back” … until it became a reality. Ever since, they’ve been trying diminish, tear it down or shoot holes in any narrative that has the Hurricanes mentioned in the same breath of other modern-day powerhouses.
They hate us ’cause they ain’t us.
Whether it was the No. 7 preseason ranking in the AP poll, or non-stop efforts from critics and haters to constantly bring up Louisville, SMU or missing the ACC Championship, due to a quirky tiebreaker—they’re equally as fast to gloss over a post-season run that included a win at No. 10 Texas A&M, a Cotton Bowl upset of No. 2 Ohio State and taking out No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl—as it’s breaking a lot of peoples’ brains that ‘The U’ is a contender again, so the lashing-out is wild.
Of course that’s the difference between the amateur and the consummate professional; the logical versus the illogical and those who let emotions drive feelings, opposed to a realistic acceptance of what-is.
Pate has no dog in this fight; and unlike a lot of lesser podcasts and platforms out there—his end-game isn’t rage-bait, trending or clout-chasing by making every other episode Miami-themed—which seems to have become a new standard in the industry since the Canes started balling again.
It’s a parallel-universe; one where we’re even seeing lifelong Seminoles fans and supporters dedicating multiple segments a week to arch-rival Miami.
LOGICAL BELIEVE; ILLOGICAL IGNORE
The Hurricanes have always been a polarizing program that is either loved or hated, with no real in-between—so a lot in the space will find countless ways to now work Miami into their daily coverage for clicks.
If even the most-biased, Canes-hater could choose objectivity for a minute, they too could easily see what Pate and some others are latching onto here, instead of letting basic and biased takes weight them down.
One can’t just point out the losses if they don’t have a clue what else is on this Miami roster—especially the homegrown or traditionally-recruited guys who were highly-touted and are ready for their coming-out parties.
Yes, losing a Rueben Bain, an Ahkeem Mesidor or a Francis Mauigoa—all in the first round—it leaves big shoes to fill.
No sh*t, guys—thanks.
But that’s sort of the point regarding Cristobal, this Miami culture, the focus on violent battles at Greentree and an air of accountability that permeates through this program—as we all enter year five of this era, with the Canes back to ‘reloading’ and no longer ‘rebuilding’.
For every talking-head quick to mention turnover on that defensive line; how many really know names like Marquise Lightfoot, Justin Scott and Armondo Blount?
Three bonafide 5-Star linemen who not only enter their junior year with some meaningful reps; they too were coached up by Jason Taylor and Damione Lewis, while learning from example from the first rounders who just left the building.
Ahmad Moten and his big personality return at defensive tackle while former 5-Star Damon Wilson transferred in from a sack-happy season at Missouri—against revered SEC talent last year, no less—and both are already projected to be next year’s first rounders out of Coral Gables.
Miami also added linemen Jarquez Carter from Ohio State and Keona Davis from Nebraska—and while outsiders could easily try to downplay both, there wasn’t a ton of national hype when Keionte Scott came over from Auburn or Jakobe Thomas rolled in from Tennessee last fall, but how did those guys work out?
Again, for those who refuse to let it sink in—Cristobal is not just tireless and world-class in his recruiting efforts; the ability of this staff to identify talent right-fit guys is otherworldly—and yes, while Scott and Thomas are irreplaceable in a sense, let’s check back on things later this season after everyone has had some time to see Boston College transfer and former American Heritage safety Omar Thornton working his magic for Miami.
The secondary in itself is the perfect example of what Cristobal and staff are doing; traditionally recruiting and O.J. Frederique, while bringing home an Xavier Lucas when he got away on the first go-around—and much like Bryce Fitzgerald hit the ground running as local true freshman last fall, JJ Dunnigan has been stealing headlines since spring and looks like another right-fit, immediate-impact guy—while transfers Zechariah Poyser and Ethan O’Connor are back for more year two in this Corey Hetherman system.
Even that; Miami’s mad scientist defensive coordinator had the ability to just turn Bain and Mesidor loose often last year; scheming be damned when you have game-wreckers at that level in your arsenal—but again, how come all those who questioned what Hetherman would be able to do year one aren’t the same ones quick to mention that his year-two efforts should come with a huge step forward in 2026?
SNUBS CAN CHANGE ALL FOR THE BETTER
Any real Miami fan worth their weight isn’t losing a wink of sleep over preseason rankings—while the true psychos know that No. 7 is a blessing as it feeds right into Cristobal culture and the one-at-a-time, back-to-work mentality he preaches.
No. 1 only matters when the confetti drops in Las Vegas after that clock hits zeroes on January 25th, 2027—and right now, all anyone in Coral Gables should care about is the focus it will take to go week in and week out between now and then.
It’s still funny, though—this perception versus reality thing–and how it works against Miami, but for others in the sport.
Ohio State saw their bid for back-to-back national titles ended by N0. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl last season—not to mention 11 superstar players drafted off that loaded rosters, including four first-rounders—yet the Buckeyes are still No. 1 in the preseason polls and six spots ahead of the Canes.
Will that matter in the grand scheme of anything come December or January?
Of course not—but it underscores a current bias in this sport; that the pundits and critics mostly believe Miami was anomaly last fall and they’re not putting the Hurricanes in the same category as the other big dogs.
Oregon has never won a national title, Texas is two decades removed from their last—and we have to go back to the second term of Ronald Reagan as POTUS the last time Notre Dame brought home a championship—yet all three remain media darlings, where their positives get accentuated and the negatives don’t get dissected the way Miami’s do.
Seriously, for all the Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price hype the world had to endure last season—virtually zero conversation this fall about what the Irish lost at running back this off-season—while the CJ Carr love is through the roof, despite ten pedestrian opponents and no bowl game since the Irish opened with losses to Miami and Texas A&M last September.
The “disrespect” isn’t even all just national; the perennially-incompetent Atlantic Coast Conference had to leave all-everything wide receivers Malachi Toney off of their preseason Player of the Year ballot—and while conspiracy theorists point to the fact that transfer quarterback Darian Mensah checked that box for Miami, two Clemson defensive standouts were included.
Fans flipped out, while we have to believe Cristobal had a good laugh at that one—as there really is no sweeter music to Miami as a program this fall than Toney being overlooked and out-to-prove—as that undercurrent is always the lifeblood a successful Canes’ season.
Upside; all of this theory will get solved on the field in the coming months—where one side will be proven right and the other will faceplant—so as the kids say, spot the ball.
That really is the x-factor here and why so many long-time Miami enthusiasts have a belief that has been gone for too long—because of that switch flipped after the SMU loss and what was accomplished from that point on; it was a monster breakthrough—one where again, perception became our new reality.
Everything that needed to happen, outside of one more deep ball on that final drive—or special teams not whiffing on punt-block—it went down last year in cinematic fashion.
Conversely, had things not gone precisely as they did, the ceiling and hype wouldn’t be what they are right now—as the Hurricanes wouldn’t have had the opportunity that changed the course of things.
REPLACE “MIAMI”—EVERYTHING CHANGES
Remove Miami from the equation and put some other team in that same position in 2025—an “Arizona State”, or a program of that caliber; last to get in as a 10-seed—and then unpack and play-out everything that happened down the stretch with them as the underdog, instead of Miami.
Left for dead at 6-2 the first week of November, said-team goes on to rally and win the final four games of the regular season—and at 10-2, everybody and their mother is beating the drum they belong in over the Notre Dame team, with the same record, that they beat in the opener.
It’s not even a debate if it’s a brand-less team with no baggage who accomplished the feat—while also beating three of four common opponents more-soundly than the Irish did—but when the argument was “Miami” and “Notre Dame”, too many got caught in their feelings, until the final hour after way-too-much selling had to take place before logic prevailed.
Once in, the first challenge is a road game at No. 7 Texas A&M—the Aggies undefeated going into the final week of the season and third-ranked in the land, before falling to Texas—this was a juggernaut of a match-up in College Station, with all the home field advantage and “12th Man” hype … and in this case “Arizona State” upsets them and moves on.
Everybody in college ball is immediately behind this story and certainly isn’t focusing on the low-scoring game and missed kicks—it’s all about heart, finding a way and getting it done—earning a showdown with the most-loaded team in the land and the favorite to win back-to-back national titles, No. 2 Ohio State.
“Arizona State” would have a puncher’s chance in this game—a double-digit underdog—and when the ended up winning by two scores, while dominating in the trenches—those “Sun Devils” would’ve become America’s Team overnight; slaying Goliath in dominant fashion and onto the next, where they’d take out No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl, en route to the national championship.
None of the vitriol that the Hurricanes caught would’ve followed a team like the “Sun Devils” or some other nondescript program that the masses don’t have such distinct feelings towards—but because it was the University of Miami, there was a retroactive “thug tax”, or some preconceived notion, as a large swath of college football fans never got over that microwave dynasty of the 1980s and 1990s and way “The U” turfed the lawn of that entire pristine landscape.
No, if this were “Arizona State” and they were returning what Miami has in 2026; superstars across the board, traditionally-recruited kids ready to take a step forward, right-fit portal pulls and a top-notch quarterback—not to mention assistants coaches who are masterful in building the trenches—the hype-train around this team would arguably be the biggest story in college football this season.
But again it’s Miami and because of the baggage, the deep-rooted hatred and the fact the traditionalists that will never accept a big-city, huge-market, small private school’s college football program being a powerhouse or the face of their precious sport, it’s an entirely different grading system.
‘THE U’ OPERATES IN A DIFFERENT ECONOMY
Those old losses in the Cristobal era will continue getting brought up, just like setbacks against Louisville and SMU get more mileage than wins over Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss last year.
Miami will never win in the court of public opinion.
The Orange Bowl Boys podcast often talks about a plus-one economy for the SEC; it’s a minus-one economy for the University of Miami—doubted until proven, while any setback is going to be put under a microscope in a way that other powerhouses simply don’t have to deal with.
All that to say, Miami really wouldn’t have it any other way—that “us against the world” mentality has become cliché as others have tried to co-opt it when dealing with any adversity or negativity—but for those who lived through the Hurricanes’ golden era, no other program in the country can attempt to don the black hat and play the ultimate villain like ‘The U’.
Nick Saban had to guard his Crimson Tide against ‘rat-poison’ as the accolades were always flowing in from all sides.
Miami will never fully have that problem; making that chip on the shoulder authentic in away others try to manufacture—which all plays directly into Cristobal’s culture and modus operandi for his Hurricanes.
YES, THIS TEAM COULD LEGIT BE BETTER
Miami doesn’t just enter 2026 loaded, it also has something to prove and a hunger that can’t be manufactured—but it’s also not some fabricated revenge-tour and trumped-up energy that will distract from the task at hand—so let’s call it like it is.
Carson Beck was fantastic for Miami last year, but Darian Mensah will be the better-fit in this Shannon Dawson offense—and while CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion were very serviceable receiver options behind Malachi Toney, this year’s room is head and shoulders all-around better than 2025.
Duke transfer Cooper Barkate will be that go-to for Mensah that Xavier Restrepo was for Cam Ward—while Josh Moore, Vandrevius Jacobs and Daylyn Upshaw are set to ball. Miami should also see some instant-action with Somourian Wingo, Milan Parris and Vance Spafford as freshman, a la Toney last fall.
This running backs room managed to return the heart and soul of this program in Mark Fletcher—again, a monster story in college football if he’s playing in the SEC instead of Miami—losing his father two years ago, a mother who drives around the country to all of his games as she’s afraid to fly; as well as this new wrinkle where a well-know alum—NFL Hall of Fame receiver Michael Irvin—coordinated getting her a custom RV for her road trips.
Fletcher will be joined by returners Marty Brown, Jordan Lyle and Gerald Pringle—while true freshman Javion Mallory makes it a five-headed monster, drawing comparisons to legend Frank Gore with his running-style.
So yes, while The Great Wall of Alex Mirabal will be replacing some top talent this year, he will be doing so with mix of well-tested Miami guys, a few solid transfers and two world-class recruits in Jackson Cantwell and Ben Congdon—all of which should be in peak form by late-season as we live in a new-world where a kid like Cantwell was on-campus last December and practicing with this Canes’ squad in the post-season.
Will this offense be comparable or better than 2024? Time will tell, but it should certainly have more spark and versatility than last year’s national champion runner-up—and it will be opposite a defense that could arguably be better all-around than last year’s when all is said and done.
Miami hasn’t had a team this complete in decades—and when you couple that with Cristobal entering year five, the culture precisely where it needs to be and both the fuel that comes from getting so close last year, as well as the belief that also comes from accomplishing what the Canes did those final eight games of 2025—you not only have something special brewing; you have as authentic a reason to believe in ‘The U’ as anyone could’ve had since the end of the Butch Davis era.
Canes fans have two options going into this season; fear of the past, or full-belief in the now—doubt by way of years of being let down, or faith because enough was proven down the stretch last season.
The choice is yours, so choose wisely—but we’re all in and believe this team as what it takes to bring home number six.
The rest is in the hands of the football gods to make this dream into reality.
In the words of the immortal Ed Reed; “Jokes are over… jokes are over”.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.