Imperfect as they are, the Miami Hurricanes could very well go on to win the national championship this season if the football gods have anything to say about it.
Why and how? Because this isn’t your father’s era of college football.
Hell, for many of a certain age, it’s probably the third or fourth incarnation of this ever-changing sport that you’ve experienced in your lifetime.
Many are fast to point out that Miami no longer controls its own destiny regarding an ACC Championship game berth, but an at-large bid is on the table at 11-1—not much different than Ohio State going 10-2, losing to Michigan in their regular season finale, missing out on the Big Ten title game … and the winning four in a row to capture the natty as a No. 8 seed.
Stranger things have happened, but admittedly some confidence is lost in this Hurricanes team at the halfway point, as recent actions have proven that superior scheming and innovation aren’t the path this coaching staff are looking to take.
If these Canes are going to get it done down the stretch, all signs point to Miami out-talenting, out-working and out-executing the competition—as that’s the Mario Cristobal way and how things roll when that former offensive lineman DNA is the backbone of your program.
REAL TALK AT THE HALFWAY MARK
Some glaring weaknesses have been on display for Miami; that seven-quarter run that started in fourth quarter at Florida State, going through the Louisville loss and right up to halftime against Stanford this past weekend—where some second half bully-ball was enough to grind down the inferior Cardinal last Saturday night.
Miami will also have to defy odds and trends year four under Cristobal; a program that went 3-10 in November and beyond the past three seasons—the Hurricanes starting out strong and fading down the stretch, for a slew of reasons.
Cristobal’s first two years were forgivable as part of a culture rebuild, roster overhaul and cleaning up the mess Manny Diaz left behind, while last year’s tank-job was a defensive collapse—all the mojo gone after Georgia Tech popped that invincibility bubble and the Canes finished 1-3 after an improbable 9-0 start.
For those willing to admit it, something changed two weeks back with that first loss of the season.
Fans wanted to see Miami shaking off that fourth quarter collapse at Florida State; the Seminoles ratting of a 19-0 run to bring 28-3 to 28-22, before the Canes recovered what could’ve been a game-defining final onside kick.
Instead of any bounce-back, an embarrassing loss where Miami rolled in flat—coaches gamed-up and out-schemed—so focus shifted to Stanford, after the Canes pissed away the lone mulligan of the season.
Those loyalists who are past this winning-cures-all season of our mentally-ill fandom; we deep-dive the how, the why and the meaning behind these games.
There is a connective tissue that runs throughout the entirety of a season; where you’re either growing, improving and looking like a championship contender as the year rolls on—out you’re eventually exposed as a pretender and it’s feels like just a matter of time before you’re eliminated.
For those with this certain mindset; on par with that sick Rueben Bain energy as the clock struck zero in Tallahassee—the all-everything defensive end sitting stone-faced on the bench; to the point where if the final score graphic wasn’t beneath him, all body language would’ve signaled a Miami loss.
The Canes’ inability to bury the Seminoles in a game it led by 25 minutes earlier; it felt like a problem—albeit one that could be fast-corrected if Miami came out and took care of business and course-corrected after the bye.
Instead, something felt exposed as Louisville schemed for this Miami team—Jeff Brohm with two weeks to surgically pick apart weaknesses in this new-look, first year defense—while the Cards’ own stout defense managed to shut down all aspects of the Canes’ game.
Florida took away the pass weeks back, so Miami ran it down their throat. The following outing, Florida State stacked the box—resulting in open receivers all day long—as Carson Beck threw for four touchdowns in what should’ve been a rout.
Brohm and Louisville managed to pressure Beck into bad decisions, while also shutting down the run and leaning on superior play in the secondary—stifling all phases of Miami’s offense—and for a half against Stanford, the Cardinal was pretty-much doing the same, leading to some impossible-to-ignore red flags, despite a 35-point win and a zero belief that winning cures all.
COACHES LIVING IN A WIN-NOW CULTURE
This isn’t yesteryear; an era where a new head coach gets five years to right the ship—and understanding he’ll need time to clean up the previous guys mess; the new norm at Miami as Cristobal was the third head coach in a five-year span and sixth over a 17-year run as Miami averaged 7-5 between 2006 and 2021.
This is now a world driven by the transfer portal; an era where a Big Ten doormat like Indiana went 3-9 in 2023 under Tom Allen—a 33-49 run over his seven-year stint as head coach of the Hoosiers, with five losing seasons—before hiring Curt Cignetti last year.
The result? A former under-the-radar James Madison head coach went 11-2 last year in Bloomington, reaching the College Football Playoffs—and now in year two, Cignetti and his Hoosiers are 8-0 and the No. 2 football team in the country … at a basketball school, no less.
Point being; the clock is ticking on Cristobal—and any current head coach with a few years in at their current gig—if optimal results and expectations aren’t achieved in a timely manner.
Steve Kim is a long-time Canes columnist, sports media personality and logical-driven voice, in a space that has become crowded with over-emotion or contrived takes for engagement and clicks.
Where I’ve finally got more critical with my assessment on Miami over the years; Kim has always shot-straight and he’s a respected voice in several sports arenas that go beyond Hurricanes’ athletics.
He understandably called me out years back when I wasn’t fast enough to criticize the prehistoric offense Mark Richt was running—and I think I caught some strays for not turning on Al Golden fast enough, giving him too much time and grace out of pity for the Nevin Shapiro scandal he inherited.
Kim shared a great example a few times in recent weeks that bears repeating here; the philosophy of the late, great San Francisco 49ers, three-time Super Bowl champion head coach Bill Walsh—whose offensive approach wasn’t to establish the run, but to “establish points” as he wants his team to play from ahead.
Pound the ball late to tire-out defenses and let your defenders tee-off down the stretch when playing with a lead—such an obviously better approach than any caveman-like effort to establish the run at all costs; blaming a lack of execution when this failed logic results in a loss to a two-touchdown underdog like Louisville, or stifled and tied at the half against a 30-point dog like Stanford.
The Orange Bowl Boys podcast has gripes that I agree with, as well—lighthearted-yet-frustrated in their efforts, as they beat themselves up for expecting something different than the obvious—comparing the stubbornness of Mark D’Onofrio and his off-brand, failed defense under Golden, to current offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson doubling-down on a predictable, innovation-less rushing attack.
For those who missed it early this week, Dawson got testy with the Miami media—not only showing his hand that he’s paying attention to fan-frustration with his ground game approach, but jawing with reporters about any questions or criticism of his inside runs and play-calling.
The OBB trio half-joked about Cristobal’s machismo—that it was effectively “pussy” football to run a sweep or of tackle. When talking about that tough-guy, offensive lineman culture—a “real man” runs it between the A- or B-gap, winning his battles; he’s not running it outside or away from the scrum.
In Dawson’s defense, it’s not far-fetched to believe an offensive coordinator who comes from an Air Raid background probably wants more first down passing and to spread things out a bit—but when dealing with Cristobal and offensive line head coach Alex Mirabal in stereo; the Hal Mumme disciple isn’t going to win many philosophical battles with this Columbus duo, lifelong buddies and like-minded former lineman.
If the ground-and-pound blueprint is working, there isn’t much to question.
When a team is halfway through the season and at a tipping point, as opposing defenses have film and a beat on any simplistic offensive approach—will Cristobal allow some leeway and innovation with how Dawson calls the game, or does Miami double-down on this execute-better talk?
REINVENTION TIME FOR MIAMI’S BIG-O
The first half game plan for Stanford was abysmal; swept under the rug by the winning-cures-all crowd, because some second half bully ball made for a more-impressive final score than actually was.
Stanford limped into HardRock last Saturday night; a 3-4 team with 16 players listed as out and over a half dozen as questionable—primed for a letdown, going cross country after upsetting a bad Florida State team.
The Cardinal was not only without top safety in the first half—courtesy of a targeting call late last week against the Seminoles, while also down several corners, a few linebackers, another safety and a defensive lineman.
This was not only as easy a match-up as Miami will see down the stretch; schematically it was the most-ideal time to run some spread sets, to create less congestion in the middle and to get Beck out of this game-manager role—throwing more on first down, where he’s comfortable—opposed to predictable passes on second and third downs when the defense knows what’s coming.
Yes, we saw Tony Johnson making some plays and taking steps towards locking down the WR3 slot that Keelan Marion hasn’t strongly held onto—while Josh Moore had four grabs and JoJo Trader got almost two dozen snaps—but it was still that stubborn, pound-the-ball early philosophy; slowing down the game, opposed to speeding it up and getting this offense more touches.
Miami’s first scoring drive was a 15-play, 71-yard possession that took 7:26 off the clock—finally getting on the board with less than two minutes remaining in the half; the entire offensive process much more painstaking than it should’ve been against an undermanned Stanford team that traveled three time zones east for this match-up.
As mentioned, the Canes went on a 35-0 second-half tear—but that was fueled by two interceptions and some great punt returns by all-everything Malachi Toney, resulting in flipped fields. Miami started on the Stanford 40-yard line, three-yard line, 30-yard line and 45-yard line the next four possessions; three touchdowns and a turnover-on-downs after an inexplicable one-back set on a 4th-and-1 that got stuffed.
Still, it set up 28-7 going into the fourth quarter and optically Miami was out of the woods.
Another grind-it-out, 76-yard, 4:36 drive pushed things to 35-7 with 9:34 remaining—the Canes getting one more with Emory Williams in, handing off to Chris Wheatley-Humphrey and Gerald Pringle—who punched it in on a 4th-and-1 with under a minute remaining for a better-looking 42-7 final.
Roman Marciante over at Orange Bowl Boys has his “Student Of The Game” breakdown that unpacks Miami’s showdown with Stanford that really is must-watch—both for the fan who wants to better-understand the game, as well as throwing some cold water on any a-win-is-a-win energy—as the how and why here need to be discussed if there really is any ACC Championship energy or hope of a College Football Playoffs berth.
Three was also the standard OBB breakdown, here the trio got through the niceties ad second half dominance, before a harder-hitting concerns and criticisms segment that delved into the unimaginative ground game against this inferior opponent.
Cristobal’s one-at-a-time philosophy is a tried-and-true coaching formula for keeping players focused on the task at hand; giving every opponent the respect they deserve—no looking ahead—as you treat a Florida State the same way you do a Stanford in this economy.
But there’s no room for a one-at-a-time energy in the coaching game; a flawed belief that what worked against Notre Dame early—when there was no film on Beck in this offense, or this new-look defense—will work down the stretch.
NEW WORLD RULES FOR TODAY’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Again, this is 2025—not 1985, 1995, 2005 or even 2015—the levels to which this fast-moving sport are changing; it’s immeasurable.
We’re talking about an era of college football that goes beyond the transfer portal and big NIL spends.
In this new world of college football, support staffs are massive—up to two dozen analysts on staff—game-planning, scouting, breaking own opponent film, deep-diving analytics and doing all the can to help their coaches gain a competitive edge for each week’s match-up.
This is an entire new landscape; one where antiquated thinking, sticking to tendencies, refusing to adapt, or stubbornly citing a lack of execution as the culprit when you lose—it’s going to get you both in the long- and short-term.
For the sake of argument here, I wrote a few prompts for ChatGPT—putting myself in the shoes of an analyst on SMU’s staff this week; which is arguably something Gen Z staffers do nationwide for top flight college football programs; using all the tools at their disposal.
I wrote this from the perspective of a defensive coordinator for the Mustangs, trying to game-plan against Dawson and the Hurricanes this week—citing a predictable ground game, as well as the fact that Louisville’s defense had success against Miami across the board; honest that the Mustangs don’t have the same personnel as the Cardinals, so to game plan around the roster they’re working with.
From there, another prompt for a deeper-dive into what Louisville did against Miami that worked—as well as getting into some compare and contrast to what worked against the Seminoles, but didn’t work against the Cardinals (e.g. – after FSU stacked the box, Miami leaned into intermediate throws while Louisville sat on these windows with trap/robber rotations.)
It’s shocking, scary, exciting and fascinating to see all this detail—right down to a downloadable PDF cheat-sheet at the end.
The only thing more-alarming than the existence of this level of tech itself? Any coaching staff overly-reliant on machismo-driven to run the ball down the throats of opponents, where getting them to submit their will and tap out MMA-style in every circumstance—that’s the modus operandi week in and week out.
I’m sure some of that critique comes off cartoonish or like a caricature of the Cristobal persona, or what Dawson and others on the offensive side of the ball are spouting—but this really is the one big downside to the former offensive lineman head coach mentality.
The culture always comes back to getting that push, picking up that short-yardage and moving the sticks—by out-toughing, out-willing and out-working the defense—opposed to staying one step ahead and zigging where they zag; out-scheming and out-thinking your opponent en route to victory.
The crazy thing; that Miami really only needs a few tweaks and some fine-tuning here—nobody is asking for an overhaul.
Look back at that early intersection at Florida State; where Dawson dialed up the flea-flicker on first down—Beck with the perfect deep ball to Toney, as they play itself and body language from the freshman receiver got the safety to bite and it was game-on.
Miami showed some balls late against Louisville as well; everyone expecting a first down run after the Canes recovered that fourth quarter Cardinals’ fumble on the 12-yard line.
Instead, an end-around with Toney, who followed some great blocking and housed it—and then using the receiver as quarterback on a pitch for the two-point conversion strike—the only time all night Miami coaches were one step ahead of the Louisville crew.
Does anyone who watched that Friday night showdown really believe that Miami just needed to “execute better” against Louisville? That at its core, the game was lost on a few penalties, missed tackles or turnovers?
Yes, Beck played terrible—four interceptions—but that in itself wasn’t just luck of the draw.
Sure, the veteran quarterback could’ve and should’ve have taken some check-downs—instead of trying to get it all back in a few big plays—but that doesn’t negate that those deep balls were thrown into triple-coverage and were well-defended and picked off by some acrobatic defenders making big-time plays.
Ron English called a game that took away the run and put the game on Beck’s arm—while not giving him the time he had to pick apart Florida State’s quick-to-bite-secondary—and it made all the difference in the world.
The same to be said for taking away the advantage Miami’s defensive line had against Louisville’s offensive line.
If you can’t beat ’em—negate ’em—Brohm wisely getting the ball out of the hand of Miller Moss in about two seconds every passing attempt, to a point where a game-changer like Bain couldn’t be the disruptor he normally is.
STRATEGY OVER EXECUTION EVERY TIME
We’re re-litigating this loss for a reason.
Imagine if Brohm chose stubborn and comfort instead of innovative; acknowledging the size mismatch and just demanded that his undersized offensive line “executed” better, instead of gaming the system to their advantage?
It took everything and the kitchen sink for Louisville to hang on against Miami; who eventually tightened up on defense as the Canes outscored the Cardinals, 21-10 down the stretch—while early offensive innovation and “establishing points” gave the road dogs a cushion that was the difference in the upset.
Isn’t that the point in this sport? To control what you can control, to strategize where you can strategize and to create a blueprint to give your team a competitive advantage—one where you hopefully negate the bad plays, the dropped balls, the interceptions, the onslaught penalties and other aspects of the game that are out of your control?
Yes, Miami went on to beat Stanford, 42-7—because it was Stanford—and simple, brute force was enough against an inferior, beat-up opponent from the other side of the country; a game where you could piss away two quarters, start slow and eventually wear them down with a straightforward ground game and dominant second half.
Who else is left on this schedule that Miami will be able to spot two dead quarters of football—while guaranteeing two turnovers, a few solid punt returns, flipped fields and a basic, punishing ground game will be enough for an incomplete win ?
Miami is at SMU, hosts Syracuse and North Carolina State at home and then is off to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks to close the regular season; each game offering another sample-sizing for opposing coaches to game-up regarding this Hurricanes’ offense.
As the past few weeks have unfolded and fans have been forced to be honest with themselves, who was really the brains of this Miami offense last year—Dawson and his play-calling, or Cam Ward and his superhero-like efforts to make plays?
No one really knew or cared last season, as the “Cardiac Canes” were finding ways to win and stumbled to that 9-0 start—but unpacking it now, Miami was less reliant on a traditional ground game and effectively had Ward engaging in playground ball—scrambling around behind a solid offensive line as veteran receivers had enough time to shake coverage and get open.
The thread of Ward’s legs also another dimension, while nobody in the sport loses sleep when the statuesque Beck attempts to gallop for a few yards.
The run worked as-is the earlier part of this season; no film on Dawson’s new offense with Beck at the helm—a handful of new receivers and running backs—as Miami was able to move it around the first month of the year, while the defense sort o came out of nowhere, by way of lowered expectations from last year, some new portal pick-ups and a third new coordinator in four seasons.
Corey Hetherman has proven to be all that, but unfortunately the same kind of personnel drop-off that exposed Lance Guidry between 2023 and 2024 seems to be akin to the different in the Dawson offense from 2024 to 2025—the reality of who and what Ward inherently was, versus what he was coached to do last fall—seems to coming into clearer focus one game at a time.
HALFWAY HOME; INNOVATE OR DIE
All this to say, there’s a bigger conversation in the coming weeks depending on how and where these next five regular season games go—but after the past few weeks, it seems apropos to get in front of the conversation.
The saying “innovate or die” has been part of culture for decades and in the most innovative era of college football seen in any of our lifetimes, it rings truer than ever.
I felt Cristobal was the answer for this program for years; that right-fit former player and national champion to come in with a CEO mentality and old school attitude—proven success at Oregon, while becoming a masterful recruiter learning under Nick Saban at Alabama—no better on-paper guy for the Miami job, which has never been for the average college football head coach.
There first two years were throwaway; cleaning up the mess Diaz left behind and building culture—while year three saw the offense “solved” while the defense was a step behind.
A month into year four, it looked like this offense solved the riddle—ground-and-pound was unstoppable, while a complimentary passing attack filled in the holes—which paired with an opportunistic defense and a roster that finally passed the eye test; there was reason to believe.
And then Louisville happened—proving that there was more to that fourth quarter against Florida State than anyone wanted to believe—and now this more-of-the-same first half against Stanford, where beating up an inferior team in the second half did enough for some to just say “scoreboard” and move on.
But it’s not really just about the scoreboard, is it? Not when chasing 12-0 versus 10-2 this regular season; doing those little things that weren’t done last year—things that would’ve resulted in an ACC title game berth, a conference title and a College Football Playoff run.
Some are going to call this nitpicking; but there are enough of us in the camp of been-there, seen-than who are witnessing all the tell-tale signs of a stubborn coaching staff setting this Miami team up to grind or scrap in ways it shouldn’t need to.
There isn’t ranked team left on the schedule and the Canes will be double-digit favorites in every remaining game this year—which in itself is meaningless, considering Louisville won at HardRock as a two-touchdown underdog.
The perfect solution to this imperfect problem; a coaching staff that gets defensive at the podium, but behind closed doors can admit that change is necessary—Dawson with some key offensive tweaks to the running game this week and a Miami team showing SMU and Rhett Lashlee some things they hadn’t seen on film regarding these Hurricanes.
Second-best? Just finding a way to grind out a win, getting to 7-1 and winning another one-game season—as it means you’re f ours, there’s also still alive and are on to the next.
Of course there’s also that worst-case scenario, that remains a reality every week that Miami doesn’t grow, learn, innovate or get stronger as the season progresses—resulting in another November setback; one that ultimately ends this season—just as 10-2 had the Canes sitting home championship weekend in early December and at a C-tier bowl game, instead of the College Football Playoffs.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a brand storyteller for some exciting companies and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.
