The Miami Hurricanes are headed up to South Bend for a showdown with Notre Dame that’s been on Irish radars since the clock hit zeroes on August 31st of last year, as the Canes held on for that 27-24 season-opening upset.
As fate would have it; that wasn’t even the biggest win between these two last fall—that came one December 7th on Selection Sunday, when Miami rightly earned the at-large bid in the 2025 College Football Playoffs, leaving Irish fans in a glass case of emotions ever since.
There’s an entirely separate conversation about the committee itself and all gaslighting efforts to put the Irish and the Canes at each others’ throats over this final spot, as they just slid in the likes of Alabama and Oklahoma with no questions asked—a reminder that it’s plus-one economics for the SEC—but that’s a fight for another time.
This one is all about a storied rivalry that defined the 1980s and went dormant for decades—Miami capturing two national championships since that final 1990 regular season meeting (1991, 2001) while Notre Dame hasn’t brought it all home since that controversial showdown in 1988 ended, 31-30 on a failed two-point conversion.
One would be remised to not bring up the missing Heisman contender in the room; all-everything wide receivers Malachi Toney suffering an ankle injury in practice on Wednesday—news of the superstar playing hurt soon shifted to preventative surgery that wound end Toney’s regular season, where he’d be set to return somewhere between an ACC Championship game and the start of the College Football Playoffs.
A one-man highlight reel for Miami; breaking records and opponents’ wills on a weekly basis—Toney deserves every accolade throw his way, and then some, for all he’s meant to this Hurricanes’ program since arriving on campus last spring.
1,027 yards, 73 receptions and 13 receiving touchdowns two-thirds of the way through this season—the production has been staggering—which is why there is so much smoke regarding what it will take to attempt to replace what he’s brought to the table in game-defining fashion the past two years.
There is a clutch-factor that can’t be defined; which underscores why quarterback Darian Mensah has zoned-in and made Toney not just his ultimate go-to—but the strongest one-two offensive punch in college football this season.
All that to say, this is no one-trick-pony offense—which seems to be the national narrative since Toney was sidelined.
CANES’ CUPBOARD FULLER THAN CRITICS ADMIT
It’s one thing to be the top-target, but don’t confuse preference, reliability and the comfort Mensah feels in leaning on Toney, with some notion it’s him and nothing reliable behind him.
There’s a ton more talent in that wide receivers room this season than on last year’s team that reached the national title game—bank on that—so a gear-head and car-buff analogy seems apropos as we discuss all that’s under Miami’s hood.
Toney was the Lamborghini Muerciélago that became Mensah’s new favorite toy—but now that it’s in the shop just jumped back behind the wheel of last year’s Ferrari F430, which represents Cooper Barkate in this analogy.
Daylyn Upshaw is that 911 GT3 in the garage with low mileage—Samourian Wingo is the new Corvette Z06 with stickers still on the windows, but it cooked on the test drive and looks ready to go.
Vandrevius Jacobs is that Shelby Cobra nabbed from a trusted collector that there hasn’t been much time to mess around with yet—while Elijah Lofton is the everyday AMG G-Wagon: built for the dirty work, but ready to get any job done.
In no world is Miami’s offense “better” with someone special enough to be called Baby Jesus now sidelined—but there’s also something to be said for having this one individual so consistently great and special that everyone else gets comfortable, just trusting him to lead the way.
Comfort is a slow death and as much as it’s been easy to just let Toney cook—as November gets underway and the post-season isn’t too far off in the distance—this is realistically a good time for guys who naturally slid into secondary roles to also become answers to questions when things go sideways.
TONEY IS ‘THE ONE’—CANES WILL BECOME ONE
At the expense of another analogy, this current dynamic with Miami got me thinking about Neo after Morpheus was captured in The Matrix.
Up to that point of this mind-bending sci-fi thriller, Morpheus is the believer—the one who sees what Neo is capable of before Neo can see it in himself.
To this point, Neo has shown flashes of his greatness—but he still looks to someone else for certainty and validation, while working through this process of figuring out if he really is “the one” and has what it takes.
During that journey, he reaches that point in the story where the person who was guiding him through everything—he’s suddenly gone—and now Neo is forced to make these crucial, future-determining decisions without any reassurance from his most-trusted source.
When we saw Morpheus captured; it didn’t give Neo any new abilities—it simply took away the person he counted on to know what to do—and that in itself forced him to now trust his own abilities.
That in itself is this new forced opportunity for Miami, buried deep within this brutal injury to a do-everything superstar in the final stretch of this regular season—against the Irish in the Canes’ biggest game of the year and toughest remaining challenge leading up to a conference title game.
The college football world seems to have forgotten how Barkate was that WR1 for Mensah last year at Duke, including that ACC Championship game win which eluded Miami since joining this conference—a cool 72 receptions last year for 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns—the chemistry between these roommates has been lost in the shuffle.
Toney’s success, while Upshaw stepped into that WR3 role—it’s kept Jacobs on the shelf in unexpected fashion; a guy who was ultimately South Carolina’s best receiver and go-to target for Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers, despite only playing nine game last fall due to a hamstring injury.
Wingo turned heads in spring and many talked about a strong true freshman campaign this fall—a la Toney for Miami last year—but it’s a much more crowded wide receivers room this fall and almost an embarrassment of riches for coach Kevin Beard as he tries to work all his guys into the rotation.
The talent is in that room; all that changed now its the responsibility and expectation as the guy who makes the biggest plays is unavailable for the next several weeks.
That monster third-and-long where Toney was coming down with a contested grab it in triple coverage against Florida State one-yard past the sticks?
Someone else either has to make that play, or this offense simply has more pressure to avoid those and-long situations as Shannon Dawson calls a different kind of Toney-less ballgame.
And if you’re part of this maligned, criticized, counted-out defense—you’re responsible for the stops you haven’t made to date, while subconsciously knowing Toney was a backstop and could erase any damage on the next offensive possession with a get-back drive.
PUNCHED IN THE MOUTH = NEW PLAN
Let’s call it what it is; this defense has lived with the luxury of a video-game cheat code on the other side of the ball for the past eight games.
Give up a bad drive, take a bad angle or fail to wrap up a defender—hence those 22 missed tackles last week that gave North Carolina an extra 100-plus yards on offense; seven receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns helped keep pace in Chapel Hill.
Miami’s defense never worried if the offense would answer; it became the expectation and norm—and it doesn’t matter how great the team in this position, there is something that changes psychologically with how each possession and play is approached urgency-wise, even if nobody would ever consciously admit it.
We have phrases in this life like “backs to the wall” or “a gun to our head” in our lives for a reason—things meant to describe intense pressure or raised stakes when certain variables enter the equation.
For the past eight games, every possession that didn’t end in a stop—it felt recoverable when these Hurricanes defenders watched Toney and the offense respond by getting another one back throughout the season.
This new variable—the absence of Toney—it takes away any certainty, to the point these same players must now approach every down with a different sense of urgency, testing this defense in a way it hasn’t been tested all year.
While that could sound daunting on the surface, the reality of the fact is this Miami defense has been afforded the luxury of not having to play with that high level of intensity the first two-thirds of this year—able to go at half-speed—but don’t confuse that for an inability to crank it up a notch or turn it on when it’s go-time.
Intensity and urgency aren’t things that can be manufactured or ramped-up just because; that adrenaline only gets pumping in authentic moments.
These human interest stories of superhuman strength when someone lifts a car when rushing to the aid of someone in need, crazy stories about an individual fighting off some apex predator, or people surviving some crazy fall and event, kicking into survival-mode for something that realistically should’ve killed them.
Without the ramped-up pressure and blood pumping, we’re all mere mortals in these moments—but when stakes are raised and things take on that do-or-die, kill-or-be-killed energy—as humans, we fast realize we have another gear, or simply the ability to tighten up and raised our intensity.
DEFENSE LOSES SAFETY-NET; MUST RISE UP
Call it what it is, this Miami defense has been cruising—certain guys seemingly disappearing week-to-week—but it also has more under the hood than its being given credit for.
Marquise Lightfoot has been a one-man wrecking crew on that defensive line; this would be a good week or Justin Scott, Armondo Blout and Damon Wilson to bring that same level of energy and effectiveness, as the production has been sporadic in comparison to Lightfoot.
Wreak havoc—and when you get in the backfield; wrap up. Too many quarterbacks escaping would-be sacks this year to keep plays alive—and that is suicide when CJ Carr is the guy dealing on the other side this weekend.
Mo Toure and Chase Smith; better effort in coverage when those running back and tight ends are crashing the middle of the field and experienced quarterbacks are getting the ball out quickly when linebacker are a step behind.
Omar Thornton; take some better angles and wrap up—other members of this secondary, play the ball more fundamentally than you have been.
Conventional wisdom has Miami losing this football game—but there’s also something unconventional about taking the Canes’ best player out of the equation; “the one” that Notre Dame has been building its entire defensive game plan around for weeks.
Honestly, what happens when you’ve done nothing but game plan against shutting down Toney and letting other guys get theirs—as well as the the hype and energy of trying to shut-down college football’s most-exciting player—and now he won’t even be in the building this Saturday night?
Same for all that film that’s been studies on a Miami offense that runs through Toney; this is almost like a season-opener offensive with new looks, personnel and plays that haven’t been run these past eight weeks.
There’s also forced change that could have Mario Cristobal working with Dawson to go back towards that trench-warfare, ground-based approach that carried Miami through last year’s College Football Playoffs; that brand of bully-ball Miami had on display from the opener against Notre Dame, to coming up a drive short against Indiana with a national championship on the line.
CRISTOBAL READY TO GROUND & POUND (AGAIN)
Mark Fletcher hasn’t had to be “that guy” this season because of some new tools in the shed and this high-flying Mensah-to-Toney connection—but don’t mistake for a minute what Cristobal forever considered the identity of his offense; trench warfare and running the ball down the opposition’s throat.
What happened in a 27-13 game at Clemson a few weeks ago early fourth quarter when Miami wanted to put the game on ice?
Nine runs un a row and four fourth down picked up on a 62-yard drive that chewed almost six minutes off the clock—rotating between Fletcher and this new game-breaker that is Javion Mallory, who could absolutely be massive for Miami in South Bend—as could Jordan Lyle, who is working is way back to who he was the last time these two teams met.
Talk about a game circled, unfinished business or a revenge game—Lyle earned the starting role at going into fall ball and game one against Notre Dame last year—only to tweak an ankle after five carries, which went on to derail his 2025 season; no better get-back moment than picking up where one left off against the Irish last August.
Aside from making it a 34-13 game late in the fourth after that possession; the Canes made a statement that they were still going to choke opponents out and out-physical the competition when the moment called for it. It’s the style of ball many expected Miami to go back to in the post-season—but with Notre Dame on the other sideline and Toney back home in Coral Gables—it feels like playoff football starts tonight in South Bend, so expect some ground-and-pound for a myriad of reasons.
The Irish have had this game circled on their calendars for over a year in a way the Hurricanes haven’t.
Miami won the regular season match-up, earned the at-large birth and made a monster run to a title as a 10-seed—picking up wins over No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Ole Miss along the way—while Notre Dame lost the head-to-head, missed the College Football Playoffs and immediately opted out of bowl season with minutes of that news on Selection Sunday.
Miami’s plate has been too full to think about Notre Dame since last August, while the Irish have obsessed about the Hurricanes everyday for the past year and change—vocal about this “revenge” energy and “unfinished business”—which can help fuel off-season workouts and and spring football, but as the circled-on-the-calendar game gets closer, the pressure ramps up as the stakes have been articulated and made clear.
All of that leave-no-doubt energy is a great motivational tool—but what happens once you’ve let doubt creep in?
IRISH UP AGAINST A WALL; CANES WITH BREATHING ROOM
What happens when you take a No. 2 ranking on the road weeks back and fall to No. 8 BYU—a Cougars team who stumbled at Central Florida a week after they pulled this monster upset—killing any narrative that Notre Dame lost to some juggernaut in Provo?
Now that “choke” storyline creeps back in, as the Irish are now winless over the past nineteen games regarding the only three formidable foes they’ve faced over that span—which adds another layer as a loss to Miami on Saturday night all but knocks Notre Dame out of the College Football Playoffs for a second consecutive year.
Miami certainly doesn’t want to lose this game to a hated rival—and with a 1-9 record overall in South Bend, this is a coveted road win any way it’s sliced or diced—but fact remains, the Hurricanes have a mulligan in this non-conference showdown, as well as a logical variable to point to if falling short on the road without Toney.
8-1 isn’t ideal, but it simply uses up a mulligan and forces Miami to regroup for three home games against Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College to close out the regular season—setting up what looks like an ACC Championship Game against Wake Forest on December 5th—where a win punches their ticket to the postseason.
Notre Dame gets Boston College, a reeling SMU and Syracuse to close out—no conference title game as an Independent and no style points available is they crash out with a second loss on Saturday night.
Not to mention the stigma of another big-game loss, while falling to a Hurricanes team who won with the best player in college football back home elevating and icing his bum ankle.
Both sides want and need this game for different reasons, but Miami and Notre Dame each roll into this primetime showdown with different degrees of pressure.
The Canes are currently blemish-less and Toney-less; time on their side and playing with the house’s money, as there are four more opportunities to course-correct and reach the College Football Playoffs—while the Irish have their entire stack in the middle and no room left for a bad beat.
We’ll find out Saturday night under the lights how it will all unfold in South Bend.
The only known variable; it’s a completely different ball game in every sense of the word with Toney not on that field—every pundit, critic, rival, hater or opposing fan wondering who is going to save Miami now—while Hurricanes fans wonder who on this roster is ready to play their own version of super-hero, making the next game-changing play of this special season.
There’s a difference between knowing who and what’s missing, versus knowing who and what’s coming.
Miami might be rolling in Toney-less; but the Canes head to South Bend with a roster full of counted-out guys playing less for a “No. 1” ranking than they are for the dude in the No. 1 jersey who has been their guiding light the past two years—and that’s a completely different meaning of the word “payback”.
Play for No. 1 tonight, Miami—the one back home and the one next to your name.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. Hit him on X for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.