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Timing is everything and some college football seasons are more meant to be than others.
It’s on display every year; teams that seem to have that ‘it’ factor and who look the part, versus some who get the lucky breaks—while others find themselves snakebitten from the get-go and unable to recover.
Whatever the Miami Hurricanes lacked the first three years of the Mario Cristobal era; all of that talk about culture, process, right-fit guys and a roster that passed the eye test—the wry smile and cocksure energy exuded by the fourth-year UM head coach all off-season now makes a lot more sense after taking out No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 18 South Florida in recent weeks.
Same to be said for Shannon Dawson and his pre-season comments about Miami reeling in Carson Beck from Georgia; the third-year offensive coordinator giving off a kid-in-a-candy-store energy—which makes sense when you replace Cam Ward with a 23-year old sixth-year senior that went 24-3 with the Bulldogs, spending five seasons in the SEC at a powerhouse, championship-caliber program and looking like an NFL rookie quarterback early this fall.
Toss in Corey Hetherman locking himself in the film room, while marveling at all the talent he has at his disposal this fall—building on the top-notch defense he put together in Minnesota last fall with nowhere near the same level of personnel—and it doesn’t feel super-premature to start believing in what the Hurricanes are showing a few weeks into this new season.
The cynic will point to two decades of underachieving at Miami; ignoring that it’d been a revolving door of second-tier head coaches at an underfunded program.
“The U” became an afterthought as it saw the best local talent heading out the door to play for powerhouses willing to drop bags—or at minimum, teams led by coaches who were backed by athletics directors fully willing to fund building champions.
Brand-wise, the Canes did themselves no favors pairing a world-class offense with a junior-varsity defense last fall; a formula that set the stage for Ward to play superhero, chucking it all over the yard to keep pace for a defense that couldn’t get a stop if it’s season depended on it—as proven by a 42-17 collapse at Syracuse after Miami jumped out to a 21-0 lead.
NOWHERE TO RUN OR HIDE
The lone good to come out of that 1-3 skid last season; the fact there was nowhere to hide. Cristobal had to own wasting a generational offensive talent—which led to the urgency of revamping the defensive side of the ball, with new coaches and a deeper roster.
Year four feels like the culmination of traditional recruiting and transfer portal cherry-picking coming to a head; homegrown and organically-developed talent like Rueben Bain, Mark Fletcher, Malachi Toney, OJ Frederique and Wesley Bissainthe all coming into their own—while off-season additions of guys like CJ Daniels, Keelan Marion, Tony Johnson, ChaMar Brown, Mohamed Toure, Zechariah Poyser, Xavier Lucas and David Blay have created a night and day roster difference.
Toss in gems from the 2024 recruiting class blossoming into their own; Armondo Blount, Justin Scott, Elijah Lofton and Jordan Lyle—it’s not an overstatement to start talking about what Miami can do this season, barring the Canes stay healthy at key positions, as the program continues building depth as part of this rebuilt-from-scratch reclamation project.
Cristobal has struck a perfect balance like no other coach in the game when it comes to meshing traditional high school recruiting with bringing in right-fit, immediate impact guys through the portal—and the result is a team that seems to have it going on in all the right places.
The media and talking heads worked to hype up No. 18 South Florida this past weekend; the Bulls starting out 2-0 after routing No. 25 Boise State at home and then rolling into Gainesville to upset No. 13 Florida—which was impressive based on what head coach Alex Golesh walked into back in 2023; creating his own culture and toughening up that program.
Somehow that premature narrative shifted towards feelings and emotions—opposed to logic, common sense and staying on-point with Xs and Os—way too many pundits more concerned with where South Florida should be ranked if they took out No. 5 Miami, opposed to listing out just how this upset could actually take place.
SOUTH FLORIDA FAST PUT IN CHECK
It was all fun and games up until kickoff—and then it was all business, as Miami methodically marched 75 yards on nine plays for the score. Beck spread it around to Daniel and Toney, while Fletcher pounded the rock—while also working Johnson into the rotation and hitting true freshman Josh Moore for his first touchdown.
The defense forced a South Florida punt after six plays went 14 yards and from there, a nine-play, 85-yard scoring drive—back to Moore on one of those jump balls fans heard about the oversized receiver pulling down all spring and fall; a 39-yard haul-in to go up 14-0—and after a lengthy rain delay, Miami led 28-6 at the half.
The Canes outscored the Bulls 21-6 in the second half; sticking to the formula of pounding the ball on the ground, while Beck took everything the defense gave him. The transfer quarterback ended the day with 340 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air—while a few designed runs for Beck netted 28 yards on the ground and his first rushing touchdown for Miami; another new wrinkle from Dawson.
Beck also threw his first two interceptions of the season, though either was over-alarming or a bad decision—hit when he threw late second quarter and not able to get enough air under the ball to an open receiver—the other saw the quarterback looking for Johnson, when Toney lept to tip what the freshman thought was a pass directed at him.
In both cases, Miami led by more than three touchdowns and the Canes were in full control—pushing the lead to 35-6 at the end of the third quarter with a six-play, 91-yard drive—punctuated by a 13-yard tough touchdown run by Fletcher.
Potent as the offense was with 576 total yards on offense, the defense wrote its own story by just shutting South Florida down like the third-rate Sunshine State program they are; 40 yards rushing, forcing two turnovers, holding the Bulls to 7-of-19 on third down—and shutting down both fourth down attempts.
Of course this is where the story gets interesting; one-quarter of the regular season in the rearview and this second trio of games equally as meaningful as Florida visits in prime time this weekend, before Miami heads into the bye week—then it’s off to Florida State for the first road trip of the season, another bye week and then back home to host Louisville.
TAKING THE (IN-STATE) POWER BACK
While the next two games don’t technically define the season, in another sense they sort of do—as Miami has the chance to kill off all in-state powers and to own the State Champs title by night’s end on October 4th.
Cristobal ended his post-game presser in Gainesville last year with a quote about the trajectory of the Canes; a podium-pound for emphasis as 41-17 was in the books and a statement made—but defense-less Miami going 1-3 to end the 2024 season; it undid a lot of goodwill in beating down South Florida, Florida and Florida State last year.
As fate would have it, the Canes get to run it back with all three teams this fall—and get to do so with ESPN’s College GameDay heading back to Coral Gables for the first time since 2017 for the match-up with the Gators.
Three-hours of the ESPN talking heads laying into feel-good storylines and pieces around on-the-rise Miami—earned media and free PR that only helps the brand and the recruiting; especially with Florida down bad—and while it’s yet to be announced, all signs point to GameDay running it back in Tallahassee early October as both the Seminoles and Hurricanes should be an undefeated Top Ten match-up.
Miami will have seven more cracks at ACC foes after the second bye; Louisville, Stanford, Syracuse and North Carolina State all headed south, while road trips to SMU, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh all take place in November.
Clemson has stumbled in the ACC; losing to Georgia Tech—couple with a season-opening loss to LSU and struggles with Troy—the Tigers look anything but invincible and their lack of a running game leaves their offense looking one-dimensional; setting up a rematch against Florida State or showdown with Georgia Tech in Charlotte if both teams stay their current course and Dabo Swinney can’t course-correct.
Of course all of this chatter goes against Cristobal’s one-at-a-time mantra, which is fine from a fan’s perspective—while this Canes’ roster buys into to the intense focus and preparation that this coaching staff demands.
Florida is first up and the Gators are reeling; losing to South Florida and LSU in back-to-back weeks—though how they went down is more critical than the setbacks themselves.
GATOR FLOP TO START NEW SEASON
The Gators were sloppy and lifeless in their loss to the Bulls; 11 penalties for 103 yards, while head coach Billy Napier and staff stopped successfully running the ball, getting pushed into the kind of game South Florida wanted—where a last-second field goal capped the 18-16 upset.
This past weekend, a road trip to LSU—where the Florida defense hung in a 20-10 loss; the bigger story being the five interceptions DJ Lagway threw in Death Valley—former guard Shannon Snell sharing post-game that there’s discord in Gainesville as half the Gators’ roster is salty that the highly-touted quarterback gets special treatment; which obviously gets amplified with sub-par play that leads to losses.
The contrast to this is obviously what Miami has going on down south with Beck; who was immediately welcomed into the program and is making the most of his second chance—reborn in Coral Gables, beloved by both sides of the ball and looking completely rejuvenated from the guy he was last season with the weight of the world on his shoulders at Georgia.
Florida limps down to Miami this weekend; which is awesome on paper—coupled with the GameDay experience, it’s setting up for the type of night game that ends in a route and gets Napier fired by Sunday morning.
Of course there’s also the wounded animal aspect of a game like this; the Gators with enough talent—especially on defense—to cause some disruption and to try to make it a turnover-prone, low-scoring game that keeps them in the scrum with the Canes.
Anyone at the Orange Bowl for the 2003 home season opener remembers; No. 3 Miami in a 33-10 third quarter hole to No. 18 Florida; until Brock Berlin went into the shotgun and was unstoppable decades back, before rallying back for an impossible 38-33 win.
In the recent past, this game feels scarier for Miami—the higher the stakes, the more the Canes seemed to wilt under the pressure—but there seems to be an true belief in this process and slow starts of the past aren’t rearing their ugly head with this team thus far.
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE BOARD
Last year’s route felt more like a perfect storm in a season opener; The Ward Effect in full force—but by season’s end, Florida found their footing against LSU and Ole Miss, while Miami struggled against Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
In that time since, it now feels like both programs are going two different directions as Cristobal cleaned up the mistakes of last year, while Napier again got pre-season hype around his quarterback and roster—yet fast lost the plot; stepping in an unforgivable landmine with the loss to South Florida as that was a must-win showdown with the brutal roster Florida has from that point on.
A few hours up the road, Florida State had the opposite start—bouncing back from 2-10 with a season-opening home win against No. 8 Alabama.
The Seminoles rolled into a freshly-renovated Doak Campbell Stadium, tossed the mic to comedian and alumni Bert Kreischer for the pre-game and all the chips were pushed into the middle of the table; starting with transfer quarterback Thomas Castellanos talking off-season trash … and unexpectedly backing it up.
The Crimson Tide looked lifeless under second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer; slipping to 5-5 in their past ten games after a 31-17 loss where Alabama got pushed around in the trenches, saw half-ass effort on plays, poor decision-making at quarterback and boneheaded penalties and late hits that ultimately ended any comeback rally.
Talent isn’t the issue in Tuscaloosa; not going into year two without Nick Saban—and an about-face took place, resetting with a 73-0 rout of Louisiana-Monroe a week later, followed by a road trip to Wisconsin where they rolled up what doesn’t look to be much of a Badgers team, 38-14 in another palate-cleansing win.
Florida State smacked around East Texas A&M two weeks back, had a bye this past weekend, preps for Kent State this weekend and then is off to Virginia next Friday night—meaning the Seminoles should remain undefeated for the match-up with the Hurricanes, albeit untested against top talent—which could result in false bravado and an unrealistic gauge on who they are early this season.
That’s not to take any credit away from their opening win over Alabama; but it’s obvious to the unbiased that the Noles caught the Crimson Tide flat-footed in a game they expected to walk through—ill-prepared, overconfident and mailing it in like they did against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma last year, under the guise that the team across from them was athletically-inferior and it wouldn’t take a full measure and effort to prevail.
In short; Florida State will either prove to be who they think they are and it’ll be an old school rumble when Miami rolls into town in two weeks—or it’ll be a bit of a paper champion vibe for the Seminoles, allowing the Hurricanes to prove there’s more of a gap between these two teams than early season polls might infer.
Where there would be more doubt surrounding Miami in years past, there is a quiet confidence stemming back to that season opener against Notre Dame where the Hurricanes pushed the Fighting Irish around in the trenches all night, ran tough, made plays against a talented, veteran secondary and got calm, cool, collected play out of Beck all night.
PERCEPTIONS VERSUS REALITIES
Just like the narrative is fast-shifting that Alabama is looking good—two seemingly overrated wins since losing to Florida State—Notre Dame’s power rankings will drop at 0-2, despite those two losses being by a combined four points and the opponents being then-No. 10 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M; the Aggies also tough in the trenches and boasting a couple legit playmakers at receiver.
Either way, Miami passed the test beating last year’s title game runner-up, as well as a South Florida team that was garnering a lot of early hype—the Canes stuffing the Bulls in a locker so badly, that the pundits are now shifting the narrative to USF being overrated, opposed to UM being that good.
Miami going toe-to-toe with Florida this week, followed by the bye—on-paper, it should have the Hurricanes more battle-tested than a Florida State team following up East Texas A&M with Kent State and Virginia; a couple more stat-padding outings that should have the Seminoles’ hubris at 2023-level highs; which might be just what they need to host an arch-rival … or it could absolutely be their undoing and moment of exposure.
However it plays these next few weeks, it’s hard to not be excited about Miami’s resume, output, roster, toughness, discipline, style of play and balance on both sides of the ball.
The fears about Beck replacing Ward are long gone, the belief in both lines is through the roof, the confidence in the running game is more than there, the receivers room has shed their inexperience; absolutely more-talented than last year’s bunch … and that Hetherman-led defense has all of the attacking energy fans expected from a Greg Schiano pupil and film-rat who schemes game-to-game with a position-less approach, putting talented players in position to make plays.
The Canes are passing the eye check—and the vibe check—and with College GameDay en route, followed up by another primetime showdown against a rival on the ropes; it could be another giant step forward going into the bye week, with a minute to reset and recalibrate before Florida State is on the menu.
As far as comeback stories go, Hollywood couldn’t have teed-up a better script; Miami just needs to seize the moment on college football’s world stage, emerging victorious.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a brand storyteller for some exciting companies and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.
