Make no mistake about it; the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes can absolutely put together a statement game against the Florida Gators on Saturday night at HardRock.
Will they? Check back Saturday evening after the dust settles after a massive week of build-up.
College GameDay has been in town all week, cranking up the hype machine, interviewing players and coaches and putting together packages that highlight this rivalry—as well as this comeback narrative surrounding the Hurricanes this fall—setting the stage for a rowdy one in primetime on ABC; the Canes and Gators squaring-up down south for the first time since 2013.
The last time Miami experienced this red carpet treatment from ESPN? November 2017 when No. 3 Notre Dame rolled into town to take on No. 7 Miami—resulting in one of those perfect storm days as GameDay was a magical event, HardRock was a madhouse and everything that could go the Hurricanes’ way did—while the Irish wilted in a nightmare of an evening for them, 41-8 when all was said and done.
If Miami really is head and shoulders above Florida and if the Gators really are a flailing, fragile bunch—Billy Napier a dead-man-walking if he falls to 1-3 on the season—the Hurricanes could land the necessary blows needed to win convincingly and to prove they really are one of the best teams in the nation a month in.
That being said, Florida remains Miami’s oldest rival—and where the stakes were even last fall for a season opener at ‘The Swamp’—this week four match-up has the wounded Gators rolling in with nothing to lose, while the unblemished Hurricanes have all the pressure on them to deliver; putting down a wounded, two-loss dog that the masses have since written-off.
GAUGING THE PROGRESS OF MIAMI AND FLORIDA
Narratives can get crazy in college football; just how quickly perception becomes reality.
All off-season, the chatter surrounding Miami focused on Carson Beck trying to replace Cam Ward, a new crop of receivers for the Hurricanes—and a defensive side of the ball that was being rebuilt from scratch; a bevy of new coaches and a slew of transfer portal players brought it—more unknowns than knows and Mario Cristobal with a lot to prove after losing three of four to end the 2024 season.
Up the road in Gainesville, this year was supposed to be a rebirth and step forward for Napier and this roster. Florida was said to be trending-up at the end of last year; late November wins against LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State, before beating Tulane in a lower-tier bowl game—the trajectory looked better, ending 8-5 after falling to 4-5 and taking a whooping at Texas.
A big reason for the bounce-back this year; quarterback DJ Lagway—such an integral piece to Florida’s puzzle, that maligned athletic director Scott Strickland held the line for Napier and the late-season surge so that the Gators didn’t see their prized quarterback heading for the portal.
Going into this 2025 season, it seemed more pundits had Florida reaching the College Football Playoffs than they did Miami—and most off-season chatter regarding this game had most picking the Gators to best the Canes.
And then the first three weeks of the season happened.
HOW WE GOT HERE
Miami beat Notre Dame and Florida lost to South Florida, before the Canes smashed that same Bulls team and the Gators were a turnover-prone mess against the Tigers; LSU picking Lagway off five times and returning one to the house.
Florida fast fell out of the polls, while Miami took a preseason No. 10 ranking and parlayed it into the Top Five a few weeks in—and now it’s being billed as a lopsided showdown between these hated Sunshine State rivals, while some are questioning why ESPN would even head south to give this kind of love to this match-up.
Of course that’s where it gets dangerous—if Cristobal were to let Miami lose their heads, or the Canes were simply to have one of those games where it all goes wrong; much like Florida abandoning the run and shooting themselves in the foot with countless penalties against South Florida—touchdowns pulled off the board, setting for field goals—or the barrage of interceptions that cost the Gators in Death Valley last weekend.
The highlight for Miami three games in has been seeing all of the hard work and preparation coming to fruition in each contest.
Owning the trenches, running the football with purpose, receivers pulling down every ball that comes their way and a veteran quarterback distributing the football with poise and smarts—while the Hurricanes have morphed back into an attacking defense; loaded back up personnel-wise and seeing superstar-level play on the defensive line, in a way that harkens back to vintage Miami teams that took games over in that manner.
We’ve talked here about Cristobal and his four-year stint under Nick Saban a decade back; the former Crimson Tide head coach quick to talk about ‘rat poison’ when his team was on top—all of the accolades thrown at Alabama players when they were dominating and winning titles. The pats on the back as big men on campus, the media blowing smoke and that feeling of invincibility where you start the believe the headlines and feel like you’re B-game can beat an opponents’ A-game.
Guarding against lethargy is when a head coach builds a powerhouse; as there’s a reason all dynasties eventually die and new ones are built—and Miami couldn’t be at more of an infant state when it comes back to earning their place on the main stage, so it shouldn’t be a tough sell for Cristobal to keep his team guarded, focused and all eye-on-the-prize when a program like Florida is headed south.
HISTORY BETWEEN CANES AND GATORS
If anything, this week needs to be a teaching moment for a generation of players who wasn’t alive—or was barely here—when Miami was relevant in the early 2000s; these cats are decades removed from an era where the Hurricanes and Gators were hated rivals.
Everyone of age for the Decade of Dominance and those national titles in the 1980s; they caught the tail end of this Sunshine State rivalry—Florida tapping out in 1987, citing their upcoming SEC schedule as the reason the could no longer fit Miami into the mix anymore.
A convenient narrative as the Canes had beaten the Gators seven of the last ten.
Florida led the rivalry 22-17 by 1978; having beaten Miami nine of ten the decade prior—the Canes cutting it to a 25-24 advantage for the Gators when the series went on ice late ’80s.
Miami extended a two-game winning streak to six games, starting with an overdue match-up in the 2001 Sugar Bowl and a 37-20 route—as well as taking a home-and-away series the next two years—the Canes rolling in Gainesville, 41-16 in 2002, followed by a thrilling home comeback in 2003; down 33-10 before prevailing, 38-33.
One more go-around in that era in the 2004 Peach Bowl; Miami winning, 27-10—before Florida finally broke the streak in what turned out to be a national championship year for them; a pedestrian 26-3 outing in 2008—before some flip-flopping; the Canes at home in 2013, the Gators in Orlando the 2019 season-opener … and nobody has forgotten 41-17 with Ward draining ‘The Swamp’ last fall.
Of course like every chapter in this story, no two showdowns are the same—a different cast of characters and storylines—while only the hatred remains.
Lots of chatter this week regarding who needs this game more; both Miami and Florida able to build a case for themselves, but in reality this game couldn’t be bigger or the Hurricanes—as the spotlight is back on “The U” a few weeks into a new season; college football fans waiting to see if Cristobal is for real here in year four.
The Gators obviously want to reverse course after a 1-2 start, but with the schedule Florida has on deck this season—even if they managed to upset Miami, they’re not running a gauntlet them facing a brutal rest-of-the year schedule; Texas, at Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia, at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State all remain in what feels like the beginning of the end for Napier.
THROW THE RECORDS OUT THE WINDOW
Both teams have this one circled and it’s hard to believe anything other than Miami and Florida both being jacked for an ABC primetime kickoff and the national game of the week—but emotions eventually quell after the ball is kicked off and then it all comes down to game plan, execution and which team is able to do the things the planned on all week when scripting out those offense and defensive strategies.
For whatever reason, the Gators haven’t leaned into solid offensive line play and committed to running the football—Jadan Baugh with ten carries last week for 46 yards at LSU and a week prior, 18 carries for 93 yards in the loss to South Florida—while Lagway had 49 attempts against the Tigers and 33 against the Bulls.
Florida coaches seemingly wanting their entire offense to rest on their quarterback’s arm—Lagway rushing 18 times for 31 yards over the course of three games; will that be the case at Miami tonight with so much on the line and needing to find a way to both generate something, while slowing down the clock and working to limit Hurricanes’ offensive possessions?
For Miami, have to believe is going to be more of the same—a steady diet of the Canes’ imposing their will on the ground and leaning on Mark Fletcher and ChaMar Brown, while hoping to have breakaway back Jordan Lyle returning to the fold.
Of course Beck remains the focal point for Miami; the Canes’ stout offensive line looking to buy the sixth-year quarterback time—keeping his jersey clean and allowing him to surgically pick apart the Gators’ defense, moving the chains and setting up moments where they look to keep Florida on its heels.
While Miami should be bringing back Lyle, as well as receiver JoJo Trader, Florida is missing some key pieces—especially on the defensive line—as Caleb Banks, Michai Boireau, George Gumbs and LJ McCray are sidelined; all of which won’t help the cause as the Hurricanes look to impose their will on the ground.
The Gators are also without wide receiver Dallas Wilson, running back Treyaun Webb and offensive lineman Fletcher Westphal—banged-up more than the underdog would hope three games into the season—putting more pressure on this unit going up against a stout Canes’ defense.
Beck threw two picks last week against South Florida—his first of the year—though neither could squarely be put on the quarterback; a ball batted down by all-everything receiver Malachi Toney, not realizing the pass was intended for Tony Johnson, who was behind him, while his arm was hit on another pass that was picked-off.
THE GAMEPLAN AND CALL
Either way, both turnovers came in a 28-6 ball game and neither took place at critical points of the game.
Protecting the ball is key for both teams this evening; Miami seemingly in better shape than Florida based on how this year has played out thus far—though Gators faithful are clinging to hope after picking off Beck three times last year in a game Georgia won, 34-20.
Of course all of that to say throw all the above out the window when these two get after it—rivalry games always playing by their own set of rules.
Expecting Miami to lean on a punching run game, a swarming defense to get after a struggling Florida offense and a grind-it-out kind of ballgame.
Some might want, expect or demand the fireworks we saw last fall in Gainesville, but that won’t be the case here. This is a different, grittier, built-tough Hurricanes team—and one not just facing the best defense they’ve seen thus car—Florida had the best unit the Canes will see until the College Football Playoffs, barring that’s where this road winds up leading.
The Call: Miami 30, Florida 13
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a brand storyteller for some exciting companies and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.
