Let’s get it out in the open—the Florida State Seminoles can absolutely beat the Miami Hurricanes this weekend in Tallahassee.
This is a storied rivalry and one of those match-ups where all logic and reason gets thrown out the window as the football gods have their way.
History has also proven the better team on-paper doesn’t always win.
Leads get blown, turnovers take place, special teams gaffes leave their mark on a contest and whatever logically looks like it’s going to happen—more often than not, the football gods will take things in whatever direction they deem fit.
All that to say, there are also years where the rivalry angle gets overplayed in effort to level the playing field, build hype and sustain interest—years where logic, fact, stats and the eye-test show one team looks better than the other—and truth be told, this feels like one of those years.
Perception becomes reality really quickly when there are underlying narratives and emotional moments that get involved in the storytelling process.
Regarding the Hurricanes and Seminoles early in this new college football season, it feels everything with Florida State has been driven by an instant reaction to upsetting No. 8 Alabama—while everything related to Miami seems rooted in the fact that Carson Beck hasn’t been the second coming of Cam Ward, leading a high-flying passing attack—as well as the fact the Canes “let the Irish back into the game” or “let the Gators hang around late”.
That’s not to go all conspiracy theory and to imply that the Seminoles are a media darling or the Hurricanes are some whipping post; there’s simply the underdog angle and early upset that came from a program that went 2-10 last year—the perception of toppling a giant, as the name “Alabama” has carried a lot of weight in college football the past two decades.
Of course this Crimson Tide program isn’t the same after Nick Saban hung it up at the end of the 2023 season; Kalen DeBoer dropping to 5-5 in his past ten games after getting worked be the Seminoles—Alabama with none of that Saban discipline or DNA anywhere near a program or new head coach who underestimated the task at hand opening weekend.
For those who saw more than the 31-17 final score; it was a Crimson Tide half-assing it up and down the field, while drawing stupid penalties that kept Seminoles’ drives alive—no more a lasting image than a few Alabama defenders having a laugh on national television as the clock his 0:00 and they lost by two touchdowns.
Saban’s brand of ball was long gone; that run-first, tough-defense, game-managing quarterback approach that led to six national championships in Tuscaloosa—DeBoer with his Pac-12 energy; he put the game on first-year starting quarterback Ty Simpson—even after a Saban-like early start proved successful.
Bama went 75 yards on 17-play opening drive, chewing roughly nine minutes off the clock in the first quarter—12 of those plays netting 53 yards on the ground—as Alabama took a 7-0 lead and seemed like they had the blueprint.
Inexplicably, the Tide only ran the ball 17 more times the entire game—87 total yards on he ground—while outscored 31-10 the next three-plus quarters.
Make the strategy make sense.
DeBoer’s version of Alabama only had 72 rushing yards in a home win over Wisconsin and 117 on the ground in a road upset over No. 5 Georgia last weekend—while feels like a hit or miss approach with Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn all on-deck.
The upset took Florida State from unknown and unranked to No. 14 overnight—while the next three weeks brought games against East Texas A&M and Kent State as well as a bye—the Noles backed their way into being the eight-ranked team in the nation going into Virginia last weekend; due to a resume that had them taking out an ill-prepared Crimson Tide squad and two glorified high schools.
Again, this is the way the game works—knock off a ranked team early and devour some cupcakes, while other higher ranked teams cancel each other out; welcome to the world of college football, right?
But do rankings always tell the story? Absolutely not.
UNPACKING A PAST TALLY SHOWDOWN
Look no further back than the 2013 season—the last time Miami and Florida State faced off at Top 10 teams a dozen years ago.
The Noles were a bonafide contender—as proven by the national championship they’d go on to win that season—while the Canes were exposed as complete pretenders who only rose in the rankings after taking out No. 12 Florida week two, which moved Miami from unranked to No. 16.
The Gators finished 4-8 that season and it was an ugly, turnover-marred outing where the Canes could barely hang on in a 21-16 upset—but again, perception became reality and Miami started climbing in the polls; beating Savannah State, South Florida, Georgia Tech and North Carolina—before eking out a 24-21 home win over Wake Forest—another fraud who finished 4-8, while the Canes were 7-0 heading into the November 2nd showdown in Tallahassee.
It was billed as No. 3 Florida State against No. 7 Miami; College GameDay in the house and an ABC primetime showdown—which is eerily similar to what the world was looking at this weekend had the Seminoles hung on in Charlottesville; not dropping a 46-38 double overtime contest at Virginia last Friday night.
The college football world now gets No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State—GameDay off to Tuscaloosa for Vanderbilt at Alabama; leaning into that ten-year, $3-billion television contract it signed with the SEC last year—while the narrative shifts to a “dangerous” and “desperate” Seminoles team who was simply “looking ahead” last week, but will recalibrate as they know what’s at stake should the drop a second straight ACC game.
Regarding that 2013 showdown? Florida State rolled Miami, 41-14—a 21-14 game at halftime before the Noles outscored the Canes, 20-0 in the second half—in what really was a men against the boys match-up roster-wise.
Is the discrepancy that large between Miami and Florida State this year? Maybe. Maybe not. But it certainly doesn’t feel as close as the pundits, critics and rivals are trying to make it.
For those who have truly watched these Hurricanes four games in; even the most-biased or jaded fan has to admit this thing looks like a force of nature year four under Mario Cristobal.
Never before in the history of this program have we seen this level of play, size and such an alpha dog mentality regarding offensive line dominance—while the defensive line looks like it arrived via time machine from decades back; Miami undeniably the baddest team in the nation in regards to how both lines are performing a month into the season.
There is a real level of jadedness involved in the narrative-building if the focus on games against Notre Dame or Florida is the fact that both the Irish and Gators made a few plays late and we’re momentarily back in the game—opposed to the fact the Hurricanes whipped both in the trenches all night, while a power running game and a smothering defense put both contests away.
CRISTO-BALL IS BUILT-TOUGH
When have we ever seen a version of Miami football that not only went toe-to-toe against a Notre Dame or Florida, where the Canes’ offensive and defensive lines won both battles?
Beyond that, why are we now ignoring or whitewashing pundits saying that the Irish and Gators would both win in HardRock, going back to the preseason?
These paid, professional talking heads—many had both Notre Dame and Florida in the College Football Playoffs at the end of this season—with Clemson topping the ACC and Miami struggling to replace Ward, while needing time to revamp a defense.
We had former Florida State quarterback and commentator Danny Kanell saying back in June that he wasn’t “sold” on Beck, that Miami wouldn’t reload this year and that there was a good shot the Hurricanes would start 2-2 and go on to miss a bowl game in 2025.
The masses didn’t believe in the Hurricanes, which is fine, but after odds were defied and Miami won some impressive early games; many still push the not-good enough, need-to-see-more, lots-of-football-left-to-play energy—while none of the commentary or critique around Beck and the Canes’ offense even acknowledges the fact that all three big time games at HardRock in September were played on a wet field and during torrential downpours—which just might have an impact on play calling and how a quarterback spins the ball, no?
The college football world talks so much about the Saban coaching tree—guys like Kirby Smart, Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian getting most of the headlines as either defensive gurus or offensive masterminds who stayed in the SEC—while a guy like Cristobal isn’t always mentioned in the same breath; despite spending four years in Tuscaloosa coaching the Alabama offensive line and earning accolades as an award-winning recruiter—both the basic tenets of what’s been built at Miami the past few seasons.
It’s time for college football mouthpieces to start being truthful about what’s taking place; that Miami under Cristobal looks more like Saban-era Alabama than the Crimson Tide currently do under DeBoer.
Cristobal has put together a a ground-and-pound, choke-you-out, body-blow-landing, hard-hitting, bowl-you-over style of football in Coral Gables—but for some reason that isn’t a big deal a year after Miami’s offense put up video game numbers with Ward; instead sensationalized storylines about the Canes not leaving the state for a road game until SMU on November 1st, or overhyping this early October, inaugural road game as some major hurdle to clear.
Those who just expect a bounce-back game for Florida State; it begs the question—did they watch the entirely of the Virginia game—or has college football consumption become less about Xs and Os, in favor of what feels like nothing more than weekly reality TV hype and drama?
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED AT VIRGINIA?
Parity is a huge part of today’s game; anybody on any given week with enough in the tank to pull the kind of upsets that were unfathomable decades back—which is why people talked for years about Appalachian State’s upset 2007 win at Michigan; because it was such an aberration in that era—but not anymore.
Despite delusional Florida State faithful calling for a three-touchdown rout in Charlottesville last Friday night, the higher IQ college football enthusiast knew the Seminoles were walking in to a battle against the Cavaliers.
Look at decades of history for for proof; FSU entering this game with a 1-6 record in Thursday and Friday night ESPN games—starting with an upset at Virginia back in 1995 when the Hoos handed the Noles their first-ever ACC loss.
Everything about this showdown had ‘trap game’ written all over it; the two cupcake games and lack of challenges after sneaking up on Alabama—Miami on deck—with the pressure of trying to stay undefeated for a massive rivalry game, knowing that an ESPN College GameDay coming-out party could help set the stage for a massive upset on Saturday.
Florida State not only crumbled under the pressure; they did so in a way that legitimately could’ve exposed them for the duration of this season—should Miami roll in, take care of business and send the Noles to 3-2 after a 3-0 start.
It’s not the fact that Virginia beat them; but how—Florida State’s quirky 3-3-5 defense absolutely exposed, while the Cavaliers dominated the trenches—especially in the second half as they kept pace and the Noles continued answering, but couldn’t overtake the home team staying one step ahead.
Virginia put up 440 yards on Florida State’s defense—rushing for 211 on the ground—while quarterback Chandler Morris overcame three interceptions, still throwing for 229 yards and two touchdowns, as well as rushing for three scores and 37 yards on his eight carries.
The Noles took their first lead of the game with a field goal in overtime, but the Cavaliers answered, scored a touchdown in the next overtime and stopped Florida State from answering—picking off a 4th-and-12 last-ditch attempt two plays after a Duce Robinson haul-in was bobbled as he stumbled out the back of the end zone.
The storyline fast went from beating the brakes off of Virginia, to flowers for the Cavaliers and this notion that they are a better team than originally given credit for—but are they? Really?
3-1 going into this match-up with Florida State—a home loss to North Carolina State—while their previous three wins game against Coastal Carolina, William & Mary and ACC basement-dweller Stanford?
Praise of the Cavaliers feels more like damage-control as to not wreck the psyche of a program that won two games last year and who has can fast slip back into a loser’s mentality after a crushing defeat with an arch-rival on deck.
“Virginia is a really good team and week-one Alabama is the exact same team that rolled into No. 5 Georgia last weekend, pulling off that upset—and Florida State knocked them off!”
Whatever one has to tell themselves to get through the night, because a more honest assessment—that if the Cavaliers’ offensive line was able to control the line of scrimmage and Virginia was able to move the ball on the ground and through the air—what could that really mean with Miami bringing the nation’s best trenches to town, as well as a stable of tough running backs whose head coach is hellbent on breaking wills and sprits, while grinding opponents into submission?
GROUND-&-POUND WITH VIOLENT DEFENSE
Mark Fletcher and ChaMar Brown have been lethal this season; two of the toughest-running backs in all of college ball—Miami legit one blown whistle from a 230-plus yard, four-touchdown rushing performance from this duo against Florida two weeks back; a stout Gators defense that dropped two safeties deep, running a shell all night to take away the deep ball.
The result; Miami took what was available—running the ball and seemingly falling for six yards every first down, while Beck was content to settle for the check down and taking what the defense gave him; another lost narrative—the fact that the Hurricanes almost feel like a disciplined pro team that can beat you any way they need to as they’re anything but one-dimensional.
Jordan Lyle is set to return this weekend; Miami’s speediest and shiftiest back sidelined with an injury since getting the start against Notre Dame in the opener—while the bye week as a whole was perfectly-timed for a Hurricanes team that endure three solid, hard-hitting challenges out the gate.
Miami also returns receiver JoJo Trader, who can find a place in this offense with CJ Daniels, Tony Johnson, Keelan Marion and breakout freshman sensation Malachi Toney—Trader last seen with three big grabs and a touchdown in last year’s bowl game.
On the flip side, Miami also rolls out Reuben Bain and Ahkeem Mesidor—and it’s not hyperbole to refer to this duo as the best defensive line tandem in all of college ball; Justin Scott, Armondo Blount, Marquise Lightfoot and transfer David Blay all massive in support and beefing up a deep line that has wreaked havoc from day one.
A secondary that got abused and put on a poster last fall; a nameless, faceless lockdown bunch this first month of ball—no news being good news as they’re not giving up plays or getting tested back there, as the guys up front all meet at the quarterback or running back before receivers have been able to do any damage.
Meanwhile, the linebacking corps took a step forward adding veteran Mohamed Toure in the middle—which is helping wreak havoc on opponents’ ground games.
That’s not to say Thomas Castellanos isn’t a football player, or that he can’t find Robinson or some other threats in the Noles offense—especially with the clever Gus Malzahn calling plays—but one would be remised to not point out that FSU’s offensive coordinator went deep into his bag of tricks at Virginia, pulling out more than he wanted to a week before a rivalry game, as winning by all means necessary became the modus operandi down the stretch.
Translation; if Alabama’s defense had no film on or idea regarding what Malzahn was going to call with Castellanos in that opener—Corey Hetherman and his boys on that side of the ball have pretty much seen every trick, tool or gadget play in Florida State’s bag—which isn’t everything; but it’s something.
NOLES AND A SHAPE-SHIFTING NARRATIVE
Same to be said for roster and just how quickly the overall take on Florida State shifted as soon as everything this new season was recalibrated after their upset of Alabama in the opener.
Days before kickoff against the Crimson Tide, Seminoles faithful were going scorched earth on the reality of the team Norvell was rolling out with that weekend—any manufactured preseason hype with a tipping-point moment when the official depth chart was released and fans were up in arms about a who’s who list that looked like a low-rent, portal dumpster-dive in the off season.
16-of-22 starters were all transfers—but it didn’t feel like the haul brought in years back, propelling the Noles to a 13-1 season in 2023; not to mention the fact it’s year six of the Norvell era and there simply aren’t enough home-grown players and traditionally-recruited kids being coached-up and developed.
Top-flight programs want that healthy balance of traditional recruits, while cherry-picking the portal and bringing in role-players to add depth and experience that fills needs—which has been the Cristobal way at Miami the past three-plus seasons; stars like Fletcher, Lyle, Bain, Blount, Scott and Lightfoot all rolling in as true freshmen who were Hurricanes from day one.
The point has been beaten up here over time, but this is a winning-cures-all era of college football—especially in the eyes of fans, who see what they want to see and believe what they want to believe.
Miami fell victim to the mindset last fall, when a brutally-bad defense was ignored and a “Cardiac Canes” narrative was played-up—winning shootouts en route to a 9-0 start, with heads in the sand regarding how incomplete and incapable this team was of making a legit run; proven by a 1-3 skid to end a once-promising season.
Was last Friday night an aberration for Florida State—or their early-season reality check, where catching Alabama early an ill-prepared was the anomaly—the Noles realistically the team pushed around by the Cavaliers and not the aggressor who took advantage of a sleepwalking Crimson Tide squad that has since woken up?
Realistically, it feels like the latter—as this feels like a year where Miami has legitimately taken a massive step forward in year four under Cristobal, while Norvell’s entire existence at Florida State feels like a one-trick pony, led by an overachieving Jordan Travis and some portal gold struck in 2023, when a few guys hit and the Noles took advantage of what was in front of them that fall.
HOW IT GOT HERE…
To go from 13-1 to 2-10 last season; Florida State faithful can downplay it all they want and hype that this is a new year, new roster and new set of circumstances—but you don’t fine-tune and tweak your way out of last year’s crash-and-burn season.
Miami did what it did to Notre Dame; national champion runners-up who went 14-2 last season—beating Indiana, Georgia and Penn State, before falling to Ohio State in the title game—and when warning signals were fired that South Florida was the hottest team in the game; the Canes squashed any upset narrative and rolled by 39 points; over double the point spread while shutting down quarterback Byrum Brown completely.
Florida had their whole backs-to-the-wall storyline; the ability to save their season after getting upset by South Florida and falling short at LSU—instead Miami completely smothered them; holding DJ Lagway to 61 yards passing, Jadan Baugh to 46 yards on the ground and holding the Gators to 0-of-13 on third down—and 0-of-3 on huge fourth downs in the final quarter.
Every time adversity has called this season, the Hurricanes have answered the bell.
Notre Dame gets a few late scores and ties the game? Miami drives the field, kicks a game-winning field goal and the defense puts the game to rest with two monster sacks on a failed final offensive possession for the Irish.
Florida’s defense clamps down a few times early, forcing field goals and a 13-0 halftime score—in a game Miami was dominating statistically—pulling to 13-7 in the third quarter and back on offense looking to go ahead after a Beck interception?
The Canes defense flipped a switch and shut the Gators completely down—while the offensive line and running backs went on a 13-0 run to close out a 26-7 ball game—not just overcoming the turnover, but a called-back touchdown that would’ve pushed the lead to 20-0 early third quarter; Miami keeping its cool, never flinching and constantly executing.
It feels like a perfect storm was needed for Noles to go toe-to-toe with the Canes this coming weekend; much like what No. 7 Miami experienced back in 2017 when No. 3 Notre Dame came to town—a magical day with College GameDay on campus, a packed HardRock supporting two undefeated teams and a primetime showdown where everything fell into place for the home team.
Of course that magical run started weeks prior when Miami broke a seven-game losing streak to Florida State—a last second touchdown to pull off the 24-20 victory—which carried over to the following week with a 4th-and-10 pick-up against Georgia Tech, to squeeze out a 25-24 win on a last-second field goal.
The Canes put Syracuse away a week after that, and then overcome a late surge at North Carolina—where defense shut the door on a Tar Heels’ comeback, hanging-on for a 24-19 victory.
That 7-0 start then led to a primetime ABC showdown between No. 10 Miami and No. 13 Virginia Tech a week later—and when the Canes took care of business on that main stage, only then did it set up the epic showdown with the Irish in mid-November and an eventual 10-0 start, that could’ve just as easily have been 6-4.
The bubble wound up bursting the final week of the season; No. 2 Miami losing on the road to a 4-7 Pittsburgh squad—and then smashed a week later by No. 1 Clemson in the Canes’ first-ever ACC title game appearance—and then a face-plant in the Orange Bowl against No. 6 Wisconsin as 10-0 fast became 10-3.
In the midst of that 2017 run, winning most-definitely cured everything—fueled by that deceptive team-of-destiny persona fans embrace as the bounces and breaks keep going their way … until they don’t.
That was a good-not-great Miami team; solid veteran defense, but some glaring holes on the offense and a lack of firepower—which was exposed down the stretch when going up against teams that had the horses to stop the Canes.
… HOW WILL IT PLAY OUT?
Ending this diatribe the way it started; Florida State can absolutely beat Miami this weekend—but the train of momentum the Seminoles were riding into this match-up with the Hurricanes; it’s completely gone off the tracks as that loss at Virginia feels like less of an aberration and more of a sign of things to come for a puffed-up team exposed.
Cristobal spent three-plus years building to this moment; fielding a dream-team that now has the personnel to run the brand of football that defines him—Miami rolling into Tallahassee this weekend, ready for trench warfare and to pound the ball down Florida State’s throat.
Should the Noles want to sell out to try and stop the run, the Canes will rely on that line’s pass-protecting abilities to buy time for a 23-year old, sixth-year senior, veteran quarterback—with his big-game SEC pedigree, and now 28-3 as a starter—Beck distributing the ball, moving the chains and doing what it takes to win.
The more Miami’s offense is on the field, the more Florida State’s defense gets worn down to a nub by this line and rushing attack—which also means less shots at wizardry from Malzahn and Castellanos—while the Canes’ defense will do all it can to to spy the running quarterback, working to limit those long third down scampers that buy the Noles more shots at the end zone.
Hit them hard, fast and early—Miami with a golden opportunity to build a lead that quiets the Doak Campbell crowd; muscle-memory kicking in as last year’s two-win season isn’t as far away as their fans want to believe it is.
It’s also hard not to believe Beck and this Hurricanes’ offense has something to prove; all the piling-on after not beating Florida by “enough”, as well as all the hype around Malzahn’s play calling—Miami coordinator Shannon Dawson almost feels like the forgotten man in this one; what does he do with Beck if the Canes are playing on their first dry field it a big game all year?
Even with more of an aerial attack, the tried-and-true blueprint remains.
Ground and pound, wear them down with body blows, choke them out—and take shots that are there on offense—while this defense has another calling-card type outing that has long-defined this rivalry; Miami the vastly superior football team top to bottom, with a great chance to expose Florida State in greater manner than Virginia even did.
The Call: Miami 31, Florida State 20
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a brand storyteller for some exciting companies and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.