The State of Miami: Revisted

After back-to-back losses, the Miami Hurricanes sit unpretty at 2-3 and with Central Florida on the horizon.

The optimist is quick to tell you that the Canes are two plays from 4-1. A 28-24 loss to North Carolina was a 31-28 win, if Kayne Farquharson was an inch taller or Robert Marve took a little off his would-be game winning laser.

A week later, a 41-39 loss to Florida State, left most contemplating a different outcome had 1st and goal started at the four-yard line, instead of the nine.

Sam Shields quickly became the scapegoat after wrongly taking the field and costing Miami five yards, but it’s not the junior wideout’s fault the Canes did nothing the next three offensive plays – not to mention the defense giving up a 3rd and goal from the 20-yard line a drive later, effectively sealing the loss.

The six-point swing over two games has cast a dark cloud over the program, in a year when there was finally reason for some optimism. A strong defensive showing at Florida and an offense that finally seemed to be clicking at Texas A&M, many thought the Canes were an immediate ACC dark horse.

Then the last two weeks happened.

Everyone wants to point the finger somewhere. Anywhere. Too many ACC losses – 2-6 since Randy Shannon took over. A conservative offense, which has message board jockeys calling for the head of Patrick Nix. Even ‘defensive guru’ Bill Young isn’t untouchable, these days. A stellar showing against the Gators means little after giving up a combined 69 points in losses to the Heels and Noles.

It’s only five games into the season, but it’s as good a time as any for this fan base to head into the locker room, consider it halftime and really evaluate the state of the program. Emotions are running high, so let’s attempt to employ some logic.

Dave Hyde of the Sun Sentinel had a great piece this week. If you haven’t yet read it, do so when you’re done here. “You can’t point finger at UM’s Shannon yet; blame 2-3 start on weak junior, senior classes” is a mouthful as far as titles go, but Hyde’s says it all and is as good a place as any to start evaluating this year’s Canes.

For the first time since 1974, it appears Miami won’t have one player drafted next spring. Forget the first round streak that dates back to 1994, the Canes don’t even have Mr. Irrelevant on this squad.

Said an unnamed NFL scout, “They’ll probably be shut out. Nobody off that team is probably going to get picked. They just don’t have anyone I want to take a chance on.”

For a program with more current NFLers and 26 first rounders this decade, the statement reads like a typo. Sadly it’s reality.

Without another anti-Larry Coker rant and talk of his sub par recruitment and development of players (if you want to ‘go there’, read last October’s piece on the 2004 class), the quality of player at Miami simply isn’t what it once was. Not until Shannon sunk his teeth into the recruiting process and started bringing some gems back to The U.

Assuming the position in late 2006, Shannon only had a matter of weeks to ‘save’ the 2007 recruiting class, as well as attempting to reel in some on-the-fence kids. The gems of the class proved to be Marve and running back Graig Cooper.

Marve was headed to Alabama, but got cold feet when Nick Saban took over head coaching duties. Cooper had committed to the Canes, but wasn’t a lock after spending a year at Milford Prep, getting his grades up. Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Mississippi were also on the radar.

Defensive lineman Allen Bailey was torn between Florida, Georgia and a few other national powers, but in the end chose Miami and Shannon.

Leonard Hankerson, Jermaine McKenzie, Joseph Nicolas, Orlando Franklin, Adewale Ojomo and DeMarcus Van Dyke were some of the other big name pick ups, some who have produced and others who are still finding their way.

The rebuilding project truly began with the 2008 class, where several key players are not only having in impact – but they’re proving to be some of the best players on this current Miami squad.

Sean Spence looks like the next great linebacker. Marcus Forston is proving to be a force on a depleted and talent-starved defensive line. Travis Benjamin is doing his best Devin Hester each and every week. Aldarius Johnson is proving to be everything recent Canes receivers weren’t. Jacory Harris is a solid back up to Marve and has the poise to be a future star, while top-rated linebacker Arthur Brown will finally get to strut his stuff this weekend, appeasing his Internet fan base as his recruitment was a big deal to online folk labeling him GOAT (greatest of all time) even though he’s yet to start a game.

Let’s face it, good teams aren’t talent-heavy with their underclassmen and relying so heavily on the services of kids playing high school ball this time last year. That’s the bitter pill. The good news lies in the future and the shot in the arm this program is receiving talent-wise.

These kids are the foundation. The bottom floor. The concrete has been laid and Miami will build up from here.

Back-to-back weeks the Canes had heartbreaking losses, but each was followed up with a verbal commitment from a recruit looking to make his mark next season. This week, the top running back in the state, Lamar Miller, verballed days after the loss to FSU. Last week it was much-needed defensive back Kayvon Webster, making it fifteen commitments for next year before 2008 is even in the books.

As Hyde points out, when you’re seeing a junior like Shields making mental mistakes, or seniors like Anthony Reddick and Bruce Johnson getting burned by a North Carolina receiver on a 74-yard score, it’s blatantly obvious why Miami began falling apart in 2006.

It was easy to get caught up in the hype of a close game against Florida. 9-3 in the fourth quarter had Miami’s defense looking all-world. 109 points and thirteen quarters later, the Canes look fallible and everyone wants to know what changed.

Start with the fact Young’s defense was brand new in Gainesville. There was no film on the Canes D and once everything was thrown at Florida, opposing offensive coordinators now had the ability to scheme for Miami and prey on the weaknesses; most notably a weak pass rush and a vulnerable secondary easy to pick apart when the blitz was on.

North Carolina found success moving the pocket by rolling out Cameron Sexton, while Florida State outsmarted Miami defenders with Christian Ponder’s legs, instead of his arm.

A third-stringer and an unproven Seminole scrub lit up the Canes, which doesn’t bode well as Thaddeus Lewis (Duke), Riley Skinner (Wake Forest), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech) and a triple option-happy Georgia Tech team all remain on Miami’s radar. The Canes are 2-3 and the meat of the schedule is on the horizon.

Seven games remain and safe to say all seven are losable, based on how the past two weeks played out. Perception is reality and two weeks ago the reality was a 2-1 Miami bunch could hang tough with anyone remaining on the schedule. 0-2 since then, pessimism and reality have crept in with the fan base – though the team remains upbeat and out to prove it won’t go in the tank, a la 2006 and 2007.

8-4 seemed like a safe prediction when this season kicked off. 9-3 would’ve been a dream, 7-5 tolerable and 6-6 the worst case scenario. After this recent skid, 7-5 now looks like your best case, 6-6 a safe prediction and 5-7 a distinct possibility.

Again, that’s just a writer writing and playing things out on paper based on recent history. These current Canes obviously have something to say about it. There might be a lack of talent, but sometimes that can be overcome by heart. Miami used to out-talent the competition. Down the stretch it’ll be about out-gutting the other guys.

A Shields, a Reddick, a Johnson, a VanDyke, a Nicolas… if all made a play here or there, this type of morbid article isn’t a reality. Instead we’re talking about 4-1, some thrilling wins and the sky being the limit regarding the ACC the remainder of 2008.

Losses bring doubt, criticism and negativity. Sadly, these upperclassmen know losing all too well. Miami’s current seniors sport a 23-19 record, while the juniors are now 14-16 in their careers.

No mystery while the dark cloud of failure and this losing culture hover over the program, or why Shannon has oft stated he wants winners from winning programs. Much has been discussed this week how the Canes’ underclassmen aren’t used to losing ball games and have found ways to overachieve when backs have been to the wall.

When juniors and seniors are blowing plays, it’s the freshman and sophomores who have stepped up their game, as well as seeming to take the losses much harder. That ‘refuse to lose’ mentality needs to become infectious.

While this certainly isn’t time to give up on The U, those smitten with a solid showing at Florida and Texas A&M need to reevaluate expectations. It was easy to get ahead of one’s self, after such a brutal run these past few seasons. Many thought the 9-3 campaigns of 2004 and 2005 were rock bottom, which is understandable after an 11-1, 12-0, 12-1 and 11-2 stretch prior to those down years.

7-6 and 5-7 were a brand new low. The worst football the Canes had played in three decades and a program stripped of talent due to piss-poor recruiting and development of players. It takes more than high school accolades and a “U” on the helmet for Miami caliber football and U-style players.

The road to recovery is underway. That much is for certain. The play of Miami’s freshman has been stellar and the lone bright spot early this season. It has you longing for the day these kids are juniors and seniors, two or three-deep on the roster and finally looking like the Canes again.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t bode well in our fast-food, “we wanted it yesterday” society. Off the wall comparisons to what other programs are doing or wishful thinking regarding this current crop of Canes being reminiscent to some late 90s Miami teams who were turning the corner.

This isn’t 1998 or 1999. Butch Davis isn’t calling the shots. It’s 2008. There’s more money, parity and competition in today’s college game and instant results aren’t part of the process.

Davis-enthusiasts also need to remember that the former Miami coach inherited a team with probation on the horizon, but he still took over a squad that finished 10-2 and #3 in the nation under Dennis Erickson. The cupboard was much more full for Davis than Shannon, though probation would wreak havoc on recruiting over the next few seasons.

As great as these current freshman appear, they’re going to win some ball games and they’re going to make rookie mistakes that cost the Canes.

As impressive as Young’s defensive resume, as recent as this week he stated he’s only implemented 50% of his D, citing the learning curve that comes with such a depleted unit and so many green players.

That said, there’s no excuse for 100% failure in the red-zone, where Miami has given up 14 touchdowns and 2 field goals on 16 appearances inside the 20. The Canes are focusing on red-zone defense this week with Central Florida looming.

Any weakness or deficiency becomes the new focus as this young team looks to rebound and save a season on the brink of getting away. It’s part of the maturation process. As much as the losses hurt right now, we’re witnessing the games these kids will reference as ‘character building’ and ‘career changing’ a few years from now.

The same way a Mike Rumph or Ed Reed pointed to a 27-23 loss to #2 Penn State in 1999, hopefully these freshman will remember the pitfalls of 2008 when things turn around by 2010. And turn around, it will. Just not on the timetable many of us hoped for.

Support these Canes watch them through the eyes of a parent watching a child. This squad need to be judged for the green squad they are and not held to the same standard as past great Miami teams. They’ll get back to where they need to be, though it doesn’t look like it’ll happen as soon as many had hoped.

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