If there ever was a modern-day dream season the Miami Hurricanes can almost accept going up in flames, it really is this debacle the College Football Playoffs bought-and-sold committee rolled out this weekend with their final rankings drop, year one of a new 12-team playoff.
Equally as disastrous and noteworthy as this flawed system itself; watching the ESPN College GameDay crew in full spin city-mode after dealing with five days of fallout from Tuesday night’s rankings drop—with deserved backlash for attempts to gaslight fans into believing Alabama was a shoo-in for the 11th-spot; the four-letter network’s take feeling less authentic in a year Disney dropped $3-billion to snatch up SEC television rights for the next decade.
Rece Davis did his best ‘Baghdad Bob’ with nothing-to-see-here, get-in-front-of-the-drama pre-announcement ramblings, while Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway nipped at each other like a couple of wine-drunk ‘Real Housewives’ reality starlets.
Kirk Herbstreit seemed to want as little face-time as possible after becoming the target of all Florida State’s ire last December—having backed the committee’s inclusion of one-loss Alabama as 2023 SEC Champs over a 13-0 Seminoles squad that lost their starting quarterback two games before taking the ACC crown.
Still, nothing left a more-lasting impression than a dazed-and-confused Nick Saban— looking moments away from producers calling in a grief counselor as the former Bama head coach turned commentator talked in circles, trying to make sense of the Crimson Tide accepting their new fate as the first team out.
For Miami, there’s sadly some solace taken in second-team-out—opposed to Alabama spending the past five days believing they were in; rooting like hell for SMU to take out Clemson, while seeing the Georgia team they rallied to beat months back rolling to another SEC Championship, this time over Texas.
In the end, the acceptance that Miami’s opportunity died at Georgia Tech or Syracuse, where a win over either puts the Hurricanes in Charlotte.
Instead, the defense collapsed in their last-ditch effort at The Dome—on the heels of an offense that fast jumped out to a 21-0 getting lulled to sleep; the Canes outscored 42-14 going into that final offensive possession and questionable field goal attempt resulting in a four-point loss when Miami couldn’t come up with one season-saving stop with the Orange in run-out-the-clock mode.
The new ranking were official by Sunday afternoon and will remain a much-discussed, controversial final result between now and when the games get underway—as this committee had all the time, money, analytics and resources to rebuild a four-playoff system into a can’t-miss, 12-teamer this fall—while auto-bids and first-round byes look completely ridiculous, which will only force the hand of the higher-ups in the SEC and Big Ten to use this season a a catalyst for change; especially if their teams wind out blowing out teams from lesser conferences who appear over-propped up in this new system.
Hell hath no fury like a powerful conference commissioner scorned.
Davis and other ESPN talking heads on the selection show panel couldn’t repeat enough how the committee was in such a lose-lose with whoever got that final slot—Saban on repeat with his strength of schedule argument, while refusing to wade in any potentially-murky waters that touched on Alabama letting Vanderbilt (6-6) drop 40 points on them in a massive upset, as well as the unthinkable 24-3 road loss to a brutally-bad Oklahoma (6-6) one week after the Crimson Tide scheduled a mid-November tune-up game against Mercer; an FCS school.
The Crimson Tide was favored by more than three touchdowns in both of those upsets; clearly the most embarrassing losses for Alabama since Saban stumbled against Louisiana-Monroe his first year in Tuscaloosa back in 2007—yet all conversation hovered around who they beat—which came down to No. 2 Georgia in late September, as well as stealing one at South Carolina, beating No. 21 Missouri (9-3) and taking down an overhyped No. 15 LSU team that finished with four losses and dropped out of the rankings by season’s end.
Outside of that, it was an opening-season win over Western Kentucky, blowing out a close game late against South Florida (6-6), picking up a road win at Wisconsin (5-7), rolling the aforementioned Mercer as their late-season cupcake and a lopsided rivalry win over Auburn (5-7); the Tigers so down this year that losses to Cal (6-6), Arkansas (6-6) and Vanderbilt (6-6) all helped take the shine off this year’s Iron Bowl.
Selectively-skewed graphics flashed on the screen with the schedule-strength argument, as well as biggest wins hype—dismissing all ugly losses and inferring every team experienced their share this year—while constantly dunking on 11-2 SMU for a weaker schedule and ignoring the much bigger story regarding what all of this had done to diminish the need or weight of conference championship games moving forward.
The closest McFarland and Galloway got to that point in their bickering was the former talking up the bad precedent for one-loss SMU with the extra high-stakes conference game against three-loss Clemson—and how it had the potential to to cost them everything—while the latter focused on the Mustangs and others who lost on Championship Saturday.
Typical “logic” from a former Ohio State receiver whose Buckeyes pissed away their Big Ten title-game rematch against No. 1 Oregon by face-planting at home to a five-loss Michigan team last week in Columbus.
Equally as non-sensical; the fact Ohio State moved up one spot over Tennessee in the final rankings, despite both teams being idle on Saturday.
Make it make sense.
The talking heads’ entire debate seemed laser-focused on the SEC versus the ACC—the Alabama over Miami back and forth all week, before SMU replaced the Canes in a case-building effort to over-hype ESPN’s shiny-new-conference-toy in a year the SEC across the board looked much more watered-down and nowhere near as top-heavy as it’s been the past couple of decades.
Lost in the pro-SEC argument—while working overtime to diminish the conference that went on to take that final slot from Alabama—the way things played out with the Big 12 and this year’s non-P4 auto-bid going to a lesser Mountain West Conference.
No. 15 Arizona State took on No. 16 Iowa State in what proved to be a very lopsided Big 12 Conference title game—and while the Sun Devils completely overmatched the always-underachieving, sloppy Cyclones—all of ESPN’s pro-SEC, anti-ACC banter was the focus while the commentators blew past such a flawed system that would put a 12th-seeded ASU into the fourth spot with a first round bye.
Same to be said for No. 10 Boise State with a pedestrian conference title game, home win over No. 20 UNLV—moving up to No. 9 in the final CFP poll and getting the third slot—and like Arizona State, snagging a first round bye.
This is the inaugural season of an expanded 12-team playoff—and while there were going to be some expected hiccups, there’s a huge difference in a year’s worth of wonder or theorizing, opposed to watching this all unfold after taking in a full season of college football and four months of witnessing all of these games week-in and week-out.
In the end, an absolute farce that No. 10 Boise State and No. 15 Arizona State leapt into first-round byes based on winning the Mountain West and the Big 12, due to where both they and their opponents were ranked entering Championship Weekend—neither the Broncos, Rebels, Sun Devils or Cyclones ranked higher than fifteenth.
Again, that’s not to take anything away from Boise State or Arizona State—who went on to play and beat the majority of the teams on their respective schedules—but a brand-new system rewarding notably lesser conferences with first round byes, while powerhouse teams in traditionally tougher conferences face stiffer competition every week—and then are ultimately punished for any imperfection?
Lest anybody else skate, No. 5 Texas also landed in a coveted catbird seat—another landmine the SEC enthusiasts avoided while overhyping Alabama and trashing SMU.
The Longhorns get No. 12 Clemson—a three-loss surprise ACC champ—and with a win are off to face an over-seeded No. 4 Arizona State squad as the Big 12 winner?
Texas skated their first year in the SEC; credit for beating a few “ranked teams” who finished the season as absolute dogs; No. 10 Michigan going 7-5 after that September match-up. No. 18 Oklahoma finishing 6-6 after the Red River Rivalry in October and No. 25 Vanderbilt also a 6-6 squad that squeaked into a ranking for a minute after knocking off top-ranked Alabama.
Texas “hung tough” in a bland 17-7 win over an eventual 8-4 Texas A&M team to end the regular season and their calling card is getting stomped by No. 5 Georgia in Austin during the regular season and then choking away an SEC Championship game to the Bulldogs and a back-up quarterback in overtime?
Tennessee played a comparable schedule, lost two games and sits in the nine-hole, road-tripping to No. 8 Ohio State—who again jumped them in the final poll despite both teams idle last weekend—with the consolation prize a shot at No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl with a win, yet Texas is rewarded with what many felt this season would be the smoothest-sailing position in the bracket?
Beyond flawed and short-sighted; especially the abundance of weight put on conference championship games—to the point the regular season is only as important as teams with easier draws winning some oddball tiebreaker that puts them in position to play on Championship Saturday; winners and losers of conference title games overly-rewarded in this current system.
A massive oversight in a year this committee was tasked with correcting an also-flawed four-team playoff—and a good time to talk about less early-season cupcakes and more inter-conference play between the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12—taking away hypotheticals in favor of real data when teams from all of these conferences forced to play each other more during the regular season.
ACC loyalties aside, any lifelong Miami enthusiast should be able to employ some logic here, questioning a first round bye for No. 8 SMU had they beaten a three-loss, No. 17 Clemson team—the Mustangs knocked all year for a light draw year one in this new conference—while scheduling Nevada, Houston, TCU and BYU out of conference; all four teams unranked at the time, going 3-1 and losing to the Cougars.
A top-ranked ACC team playing to near perfection was the only way to justify a first-round bye; No. 6 Miami finishing 11-1 with a win over Syracuse and the Canes jumping into the top five after No. 2 Ohio State lost to unranked Michigan—where a win over No. 8 SMU moves Miami to 12-1, or the Mustangs are in with that same record if upsetting the sixth-ranked Canes and finally getting a signature win.
Without that, an argument can be made for or against SMU sliding into the 11th slot—but it certainly delivers a lesser opening round match-up against No. 6 Penn State than a three-loss Alabama traveling to Happy Valley this weekend—while brings the conversation back to Boise State being over-elevated here; benefitting from a bye and extra week of rest while prepping for what will most likely be the sixth-seeded Nittany Lions in the Fiesta Bowl; a regional bowl game perk as well for those with a bye.
Arizona State is Atlanta-bound on New Year’s Eve after their first-round by, for what should be No. 5 Texas—the Longhorns getting some reprieve as they take on three-loss, twelve-seeded Clemson.
Still, in both cases with upsets, the Sun Devils could also face a 12-seed while the Broncos see the 11-seed in round two—yet top-seeded, wire-to-wire No. 1, undefeated Oregon gets stuck facing the winner of No. 8 Ohio State or No. 9 Tennessee?
The Buckeyes and the Volunteers are both two big-time, Big Ten and SEC powers that narrowly missed conference title game and are legit threats to win it all—and that’s the Ducks’ consolation prize for being the top seed in the field?
Oregon gets the prestige of a Big Ten Championship their first year since leaving the Pac-12—yet the same Penn State squad who dropped a competitive conference title game to them doesn’t get the opening-round bye—but if beating No. 11 SMU in freezing temps in Happy Valley, looks to face placed-too-high No. 3 Boise State in the next round?
How was there no discussion around this glaring flaw in the system—and if there was, what was the justification for keeping this thing as-is?
At bare minimum, a quarterfinals reseeding could’ve been a help this year—as No. 1 Oregon at-worst gets No. 8 Tennessee if all favorites win, but with some upsets and second-round reseeding would instead be looking at No. 10 Indiana, No. 11 SMU or No. 12 Clemson in the next round.
Not to beat the drum for a handful of three-loss SEC teams that didn’t make the cut, but when looking at some of these teams that make the Top 12 under this year’s criteria—including the two lesser conference champs who got a first round bye—who really believes a Boise State or Arizona State fares well against South Carolina, Ole Miss or Alabama on a neutral field?
A loaded question? Sure. But hasn’t the College Football Playoff’s criteria always been a rather consistent with their sanctimonious, ongoing declaration that their job is to get what was “the four best teams” in the field—as recently as last season when case-building for including one-loss Alabama over an undefeated Florida State team that lost their starting quarterback for the year?
Miami fans started dreaming big after the Hurricanes got to 9-0, in cardiac fashion—though there should’ve been some humility and a wake-up call regarding how Georgia Tech outmuscled the Canes in Atlanta; suffocating defense, while a quirky one-dimensional offense played ball-control.
Seeing the Yellow Jackets take the Bulldogs to the wire in Athens; up 17-0 and 27-13 before falling in eight overtimes—in a game that should’ve ended in regulation if a proper targeting call was made—it definitely game Miami’s 28-23 loss a little more clout, but the inability to go undefeated with a lighter schedule and a defense that couldn’t improve; all should’ve served as a reminder this was never intended intent to be a championship caliber season in Coral Gables.
It’s not Miami’s fault that Florida was coming off a 4-8 down season last year as this game was scheduled years back—taking some national luster off that showdown at ‘The Swamp’—while defending conference champ and ACC preseason favorite Florida State followed up 13-1 with an unthinkable 2-10 run this year, despite starting the year No. 10.
Before things got underway, the logic-driven Miami fan saw something like 10-2 as the ceiling this year—games at Florida, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Syracuse, while hosting Virginia Tech and Florida State—it wouldn’t have been unthinkable to stumble twice considering the Canes with only one double digit-win season (2017) dating back to 2004.
Miami was picked third in the ACC, which is where it ultimately landed after the 1-2 season-ending skid—but the Canes also fell victim to to the first division-less conference season since 2004, where Miami arguably would’ve been cream of the Coastal crop this fall.
Even going 7-1 with a loss to Georgia Tech, Miami swapped out traditional foes like North Carolina, Virginia and Pittsburgh—who all had down years—taking on Louisville, Syracuse and Wake Forest, who were all former Atlantic members.
As fate would have it, in this new, expanded 17-team conference—two losses was a dagger in a season SMU went 8-0 with the lightest load, while 7-1 Clemson’s docket wasn’t the toughest either; two losses being too many for Miami to overcome, where 6-2 conference runs in years passed were hardly the norm.
Defense was always supposed to be the weak link this year; a talking point since this time last year when safeties Kam Kinchens and James Williams declared early for the NFL Draft—while the defensive line took a hit when Leonard Taylor bailed early, only to go un-drafted—while linebacker depth plummeted when Corey Flagg transferred out to Missouri.
There’s a completely separate conversation and article regarding Miami’s newest recruiting class and slipping on National Early Signing Day; tapping out of the fight on a few bigger names, wondering if Cristobal is instead focusing on some instant-impact portal guys knowing that was the difference between 12-0 and 10-2 this regular season—but for now some humble pie regarding what this team’s expectations really were.
In the end, Cam Ward over-exceeded expectations and after years of inconsistent offensive play, Miami rolled out what was statistically the best offense in the nation—willing this defensive-less team to wins that could’ve easily gone the other way; Virginia Tech, Cal, Louisville or even Duke—just as a few more plays on day’s the offense wasn’t perfect; Miami could’ve easily taken Georgia Tech or Syracuse, as well.
Looking at the final bracket; had Miami held on against Syracuse and won the ACC Championship, the Canes are sitting on first round bye and are arguably taking on No. 6 Penn State in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.
Winnable? Possible, but not realistic—not when watching the Nittany Lions going toe to toe with Oregon and Ohio State in two close losses this year—but for the sake of argument, Miami gets it done.
From there, a semifinals tussle with what is most-likely No. 2 Georgia to punch one’s ticket to the national championship which realistically is against No. 1 Oregon, No. 5 Texas, No. 8 Ohio State or No. 9 Tennessee.
Yes, the Hurricanes would have a puncher’s chance in a match-up with any of those teams—but Miami’s offense saw what a tough-nosed Georgia Tech defense did to disrupt Ward but not giving him time to ball out, just as the Canes’ defense got lit-up by Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord and legit Orange offense—every projected winner in the CFP here capable of doing that on both sides of the ball.
Again, an invite to the big dance and the opportunity to get the feet wet and to compete—there’s no debate why Miami wanted to badly to punch its ticket at 10-2—but even the biggest bleeding heart saw enough miraculous moments that snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and knew the Canes would be white-knuckling through the gauntlet, needing every lucky break and bounce to go their way—a challenge made even more difficult with a win over Syracuse and ACC title game loss.
With the 11- or 12-seed, Miami is on the road at frigid Penn State or rowdy Texas and the odds of escaping either of those is pretty slim; the first-round bye setting up the neutral playing field always a key when dreaming about this post-season.
Consolation prizes and runner-up options always sound brutal in the face of disaster, but the fact that Ward and running back Damien Martinez are both currently opting in to the horribly-named Pop-Tarts Bowl—that should open the flood gates for an Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George and other starters to run it back one more time with their alpha dog quarterback—which the Hurricanes absolutely need after such brutal post-season play this century.
Miami’s last bowl win was in this same game after an 8-4 run in 2016 in year one under Mark Richt; turning it around against West Virginia for a 9-4 season.
Prior to that, the Hurricanes had lost six bowl game in a row—as well as five more since that win; Miami now dropping 12 of their past 14 bowl games and the last pre-2016 win coming against Nevada in the 2006 MPC Computers Bowl on the blue turf in Boise—the final game of the Larry Coker era.
Fans and rivals will call it a “meaningless bowl game”—and time will tell if Ward actually does participate, or if his agent, handlers and family convince him to focus on next spring NFL Draft—which would a full-circle announcement a few weeks from now just as his initial declaration for the draft was reversed when cooler heads prevailed and he decided to play one final season at Miami.
Regardless, the chance to go 11-2 isn’t meaningless for a program that’s only had one double digit-win season (2017) since 2004 and whose last 11-win season came a year prior.
Ward, Martinez, Restrepo and others want to end the season on a high with a win—especially after going 1-2 the past three games—which in the grand scheme of the history books will look better on paper than 10-3 and an early outing from the CFP barring Miami takes care of Iowa State.
As for the rest of the show, critical fans will watch it all unfold while the opinions and criticism reign supreme the rest of this season—especially if teams like SMU, Arizona State and Boise State are run out of the stadium while middle-seeded SEC and Big Ten teams that didn’t win conference title end up flexing impressive muscle and pulling some upsets that add to the chaos.
In a perfect world, Miami’s portal efforts don’t come up a few defenders short this time last year and the Hurricanes sported a defense that was a better compliment to its offense.
In this real world, a program that was 12-13 the first two years of the Cristobal era and entered this season a collective 33-31 dating back to Richt’s 0-3 skid to end the 2017 season—10-2 should result in gratitude and optimism, opposed to the standard malaise and negativity that have permeated through this underachieving program and fan base for way too long—snub or no snub.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a storyteller for some exciting brands and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.
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