Miami v. South Florida : The Preview

South Florida got their wish; Miami is headed to town. The contract was inked a while back and the first of five meetings is underway.

The Bulls wanted a shot a notorious powerhouse and the Canes agreed, citing in-state rivalry and guaranteed warm weather late November as reasons for agreeing to the match up. Miami and South Florida both started strong – albeit one had a much more difficult schedule than the other – and down the stretch, have both absorbed three losses. That said, a new state rivalry and a safe bet that both teams come to play.

Raymond James Stadium is sold out and Bulls fans have been running their mouths since this game was first put on the schedule. On the other side, Canes fans could care less about the match up. South Florida has been a feel good story the past few years and had their cup of coffee regarding their short-lived No. 2 ranking a few years back… but until you can win the Big East – a conference Miami dominated for over a decade – don’t start woofing about national prominence and being a new Sunshine State power.

South Florida puffed their chest out after a late September win at Florida State. Impressive in theory, it doesn’t look as impressive with the Noles limping into their season finale with a 6-5 record. The 17-7 victory was the Bulls first ever over one of the Sunshine State’s “big three” and had USF feeling pretty solid at 4-0 early in the year.

Did the Noles give the game way with turnovers – including a 1st and goal from the USF three-yard line that they couldn’t convert in four tries – and their season spiraled soon thereafter. The Bulls pushed it to 5-0 before losing three of their next four game; the lowlight, a 31-0 beat down at Rutgers mid-November.

South Florida responded with a 34-22 win against Louisville a week later, a Cardinals bunch who finished 4-8 and fired head coach Steve Kragthorpe this morning.

The Bulls strung together a seven-win season, but outside of Florida State and West Virginia, the other five wins are less than impressive. Wofford, Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Syracuse and Louisville. Regarding the three losses, worked over by Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers.

South Florida may be hungry to take on a state power like Miami, but have they been tested at this capacity all year? Not even close. Conversely, the Canes were tested early, weathered the storm, but have had a few pitfalls of their own down the stretch – most notably Clemson and North Carolina, winnable games Miami gave away with turnovers and poor special teams play.

Miami bounced back from the Clemson loss with wins over Wake Forest and Virginia. After falling to North Carolina, an inspired second half performance accounted for last week’s win over Duke.

Sitting at 8-3, this season is already a success. The Canes are looking at their best season since 2005 and are ensured the best bowl game they’ve seen in equally as long. Miami stepped up and knocked off then-No. 8 Oklahoma as well as throttling eventual ACC Coastal Division champ Georgia Tech. Jacory Harris shone early, starting with a pass-happy evening at Florida State in the season opener.

Down the stretch, the Canes got a little banged up and Harris lost a little of his luster. 21 touchdown and 17 interceptions on the year, J12 has seen ten of those interceptions in the past five games. Four came at North Carolina (two pick sixes) and three against Clemson, both ending in heartbreak.

South Florida’s defensive staff doesn’t have to be made up of Mensa members to realize that rattling Harris is the key to success over Miami. Follow and execute the blueprint of North Carolina and you have a good shot of upending the Canes.

With the ACC decided, this isn’t a “must win” game for Miami. The outcome will determine the quality of bowl game the Canes participate in, but all the “do or die” stuff went out the window weeks back. Georgia Tech locked up the division with a win over Duke, so Miami is playing for pride and their goal of a ten-win season. Is that enough to motivate?

Based on today’s sold out crowd and the enthusiasm of South Florida’s fan base, you get the impression this is the Bulls’ Super Bowl. A game that’s been circled all season and a game that can breathe life into an up and coming program. They got a taste back in September when beating Florida State and everyone knows what a win over mighty Miami means.

The Canes will have to weather the storm, much like they did at Central Florida a few months back. Another ‘game of the century’ for a smaller in-state program, Orlando was ready to explode when Miami rolled into town. The Knights played inspired football and hung around late, but in the end it was the Canes that made the plays and rolled home with the 27-7 win.

Randy Shannon and staff better have these kids ready. It’s as simple as that. This has been a successful season, but 8-4 and 9-3 feel worlds apart. Especially after opening 5-1 and surviving the much-discussed “murderer’s row” schedule. The Canes have faded down the stretch over the past few years and that trend needs to end.

Miami has shown heart in defeat this season and took a step forward by never backing down in 2009. Lesser Canes teams have rolled over, but this bunch has pressed on. It’s a sign of character regarding the kids Shannon is recruiting these days. Once this team is two-deep at every position with Shannon-style players, Miami will be fully “back”. Until then, the Canes just have to find a way.

South Florida is a beatable team. Miami has the talent and can get it done, barring this staff has them ready to play and implements a worthy game plan.

For all the praise Mark Whipple has received this season, some criticism is deserved regarding the second half of this season. A stubborn nature has caused too much emphasis on a passing game (especially when the deep ball wasn’t there) and a lack of consistency regarding the ground game.

A miracle 4th and 16 completion to Aldarius Johnson bailed Miami out against Wake Forest – the fourth straight deep throw in a row.

Airing it out worked against a Virginia team with a one-dimensional offense, but the emphasis on the running game opened up Harris’ passing attack. Miami threw for 247 yards against Virginia, but racked up 268 on the ground behind Graig Cooper, Lee Chambers and Damien Berry.

A week later, Miami failed to get any consistency with their rushing game. North Carolina’s defense stuffed the run, forcing Harris to win the game with his arm – which he didn’t. A week later against Duke, Whipple was pass-happy early on but turned to Berry in the second half, opening up the passing game and allowing the Canes to outscore the Blue Devils, 21-0 in the final quarter.

Because of the effective ground game, Miami (1) wore down the Duke defense, (2) opened up the deep ball – as witnessed when Harris found Leonard Hankerson in man coverage for a 44-yard touchdown and (3) forced the Blue Devils to play “catch up” when down 27-16, which opened the door for a Thad Lewis interception, which Darryl Sharpton returned for the 73-yard score. Miami 34, Duke 16 – all thanks to a commitment to running the football.

Shannon has spoken this week of running Berry late and relying on fresh legs. This comment got some up in arms as they want to see Berry earlier in the game. First string or third string, find the hot back and feed him the ball today. The Canes need a solid ground game and have to set the tone against the Bulls.

Putting an injured Harris alone on an island (and without left tackle Jason Fox in the game) – it’ll be disastrous. Especially with the speed South Florida possess with their front seven. George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul and Kion Wilson will come to play and the Bulls lead the Big East in pass efficiency defense thanks to experience in the secondary.

If Whipple and the Canes come out pass-happy, it’ll make for a long day. Twelve games into this season, Miami offensive coaches have to know better. A win at South Florida is in the cards if the Canes prove they can run the ball. Miami has four capable running backs. Fresh legs in the second half will always be there. Figure out who has the hot hand, get them involved early and pound the football.

Don’t end another season with a thud. Miami hasn’t won a finale since upsetting Boston College in 2006. The Canes need to roll into bowl season on a positive note.

Sean Spence and Ray Ray Armstrong are expected back and both will be needed to slow down B.J. Daniels; a mobile quarterback with good arm and ability to throw on the run. Daniels is the type of quarterback notorious for giving Miami’s “bend don’t break” defense fits.

Create turnovers. Run the ball. Come to play. South Florida has made it very clear how badly they want this game. How bad does Miami want it?

This game has ‘upset’ written all over it, but I have faith in Miami’s coaching staff – most notably the play-calling Whipple. If the Canes want a win, they must run the ball. Everyone knows it. Now let’s see how it shakes down.

The Call: Miami 27, South Florida 20

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