Miami v. South Florida : The Preview

South Florida got their wish; Miami is headed to town. The contract was inked a while back and the first of five meetings is underway.

The Bulls wanted a shot a notorious powerhouse and the Canes agreed, citing in-state rivalry and guaranteed warm weather late November as reasons for agreeing to the match up. Miami and South Florida both started strong – albeit one had a much more difficult schedule than the other – and down the stretch, have both absorbed three losses. That said, a new state rivalry and a safe bet that both teams come to play.

Raymond James Stadium is sold out and Bulls fans have been running their mouths since this game was first put on the schedule. On the other side, Canes fans could care less about the match up. South Florida has been a feel good story the past few years and had their cup of coffee regarding their short-lived No. 2 ranking a few years back… but until you can win the Big East – a conference Miami dominated for over a decade – don’t start woofing about national prominence and being a new Sunshine State power.

South Florida puffed their chest out after a late September win at Florida State. Impressive in theory, it doesn’t look as impressive with the Noles limping into their season finale with a 6-5 record. The 17-7 victory was the Bulls first ever over one of the Sunshine State’s “big three” and had USF feeling pretty solid at 4-0 early in the year.

Did the Noles give the game way with turnovers – including a 1st and goal from the USF three-yard line that they couldn’t convert in four tries – and their season spiraled soon thereafter. The Bulls pushed it to 5-0 before losing three of their next four game; the lowlight, a 31-0 beat down at Rutgers mid-November.

South Florida responded with a 34-22 win against Louisville a week later, a Cardinals bunch who finished 4-8 and fired head coach Steve Kragthorpe this morning.

The Bulls strung together a seven-win season, but outside of Florida State and West Virginia, the other five wins are less than impressive. Wofford, Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Syracuse and Louisville. Regarding the three losses, worked over by Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers.

South Florida may be hungry to take on a state power like Miami, but have they been tested at this capacity all year? Not even close. Conversely, the Canes were tested early, weathered the storm, but have had a few pitfalls of their own down the stretch – most notably Clemson and North Carolina, winnable games Miami gave away with turnovers and poor special teams play.

Miami bounced back from the Clemson loss with wins over Wake Forest and Virginia. After falling to North Carolina, an inspired second half performance accounted for last week’s win over Duke.

Sitting at 8-3, this season is already a success. The Canes are looking at their best season since 2005 and are ensured the best bowl game they’ve seen in equally as long. Miami stepped up and knocked off then-No. 8 Oklahoma as well as throttling eventual ACC Coastal Division champ Georgia Tech. Jacory Harris shone early, starting with a pass-happy evening at Florida State in the season opener.

Down the stretch, the Canes got a little banged up and Harris lost a little of his luster. 21 touchdown and 17 interceptions on the year, J12 has seen ten of those interceptions in the past five games. Four came at North Carolina (two pick sixes) and three against Clemson, both ending in heartbreak.

South Florida’s defensive staff doesn’t have to be made up of Mensa members to realize that rattling Harris is the key to success over Miami. Follow and execute the blueprint of North Carolina and you have a good shot of upending the Canes.

With the ACC decided, this isn’t a “must win” game for Miami. The outcome will determine the quality of bowl game the Canes participate in, but all the “do or die” stuff went out the window weeks back. Georgia Tech locked up the division with a win over Duke, so Miami is playing for pride and their goal of a ten-win season. Is that enough to motivate?

Based on today’s sold out crowd and the enthusiasm of South Florida’s fan base, you get the impression this is the Bulls’ Super Bowl. A game that’s been circled all season and a game that can breathe life into an up and coming program. They got a taste back in September when beating Florida State and everyone knows what a win over mighty Miami means.

The Canes will have to weather the storm, much like they did at Central Florida a few months back. Another ‘game of the century’ for a smaller in-state program, Orlando was ready to explode when Miami rolled into town. The Knights played inspired football and hung around late, but in the end it was the Canes that made the plays and rolled home with the 27-7 win.

Randy Shannon and staff better have these kids ready. It’s as simple as that. This has been a successful season, but 8-4 and 9-3 feel worlds apart. Especially after opening 5-1 and surviving the much-discussed “murderer’s row” schedule. The Canes have faded down the stretch over the past few years and that trend needs to end.

Miami has shown heart in defeat this season and took a step forward by never backing down in 2009. Lesser Canes teams have rolled over, but this bunch has pressed on. It’s a sign of character regarding the kids Shannon is recruiting these days. Once this team is two-deep at every position with Shannon-style players, Miami will be fully “back”. Until then, the Canes just have to find a way.

South Florida is a beatable team. Miami has the talent and can get it done, barring this staff has them ready to play and implements a worthy game plan.

For all the praise Mark Whipple has received this season, some criticism is deserved regarding the second half of this season. A stubborn nature has caused too much emphasis on a passing game (especially when the deep ball wasn’t there) and a lack of consistency regarding the ground game.

A miracle 4th and 16 completion to Aldarius Johnson bailed Miami out against Wake Forest – the fourth straight deep throw in a row.

Airing it out worked against a Virginia team with a one-dimensional offense, but the emphasis on the running game opened up Harris’ passing attack. Miami threw for 247 yards against Virginia, but racked up 268 on the ground behind Graig Cooper, Lee Chambers and Damien Berry.

A week later, Miami failed to get any consistency with their rushing game. North Carolina’s defense stuffed the run, forcing Harris to win the game with his arm – which he didn’t. A week later against Duke, Whipple was pass-happy early on but turned to Berry in the second half, opening up the passing game and allowing the Canes to outscore the Blue Devils, 21-0 in the final quarter.

Because of the effective ground game, Miami (1) wore down the Duke defense, (2) opened up the deep ball – as witnessed when Harris found Leonard Hankerson in man coverage for a 44-yard touchdown and (3) forced the Blue Devils to play “catch up” when down 27-16, which opened the door for a Thad Lewis interception, which Darryl Sharpton returned for the 73-yard score. Miami 34, Duke 16 – all thanks to a commitment to running the football.

Shannon has spoken this week of running Berry late and relying on fresh legs. This comment got some up in arms as they want to see Berry earlier in the game. First string or third string, find the hot back and feed him the ball today. The Canes need a solid ground game and have to set the tone against the Bulls.

Putting an injured Harris alone on an island (and without left tackle Jason Fox in the game) – it’ll be disastrous. Especially with the speed South Florida possess with their front seven. George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul and Kion Wilson will come to play and the Bulls lead the Big East in pass efficiency defense thanks to experience in the secondary.

If Whipple and the Canes come out pass-happy, it’ll make for a long day. Twelve games into this season, Miami offensive coaches have to know better. A win at South Florida is in the cards if the Canes prove they can run the ball. Miami has four capable running backs. Fresh legs in the second half will always be there. Figure out who has the hot hand, get them involved early and pound the football.

Don’t end another season with a thud. Miami hasn’t won a finale since upsetting Boston College in 2006. The Canes need to roll into bowl season on a positive note.

Sean Spence and Ray Ray Armstrong are expected back and both will be needed to slow down B.J. Daniels; a mobile quarterback with good arm and ability to throw on the run. Daniels is the type of quarterback notorious for giving Miami’s “bend don’t break” defense fits.

Create turnovers. Run the ball. Come to play. South Florida has made it very clear how badly they want this game. How bad does Miami want it?

This game has ‘upset’ written all over it, but I have faith in Miami’s coaching staff – most notably the play-calling Whipple. If the Canes want a win, they must run the ball. Everyone knows it. Now let’s see how it shakes down.

The Call: Miami 27, South Florida 20

Comments

comments

14 thoughts on “Miami v. South Florida : The Preview

  1. Wow, you were all over the board on this one. Slamming South Florida. Praising the Canes(shocking). Then in the middle of all that was some decent analysis.
    Bottom line, this is a game(much like Clemson, NC) the Canes should win. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them struggle and maybe even lose. I hope not, but it is a RS coached team:P

  2. Wow, you were all over the board on this one. Slamming South Florida. Praising the Canes(shocking). Then in the middle of all that was some decent analysis.

    Where did I *slam* South Florida? By pointing out that the majority of their wins were against nobodies and that the only good teams they played they lost to?

    That's not a dig, that's the truth.

    As for the Canes, you're looking at a 8-3 team that could easily be 10-1 right now… even with the holes on defense and pass-happy play calling from Mark Whipple.

    My point: South Florida has the athletes and motivation entering this game. Miami has athletes, but do they have the same will to win?

    Mark Whipple's offense has been 'pass to set up the run' which hasn't worked down the stretch. Against fast and physical defenses, you HAVE to figure out a way to run the ball.

    This is absolutely a game Miami SHOULD win — like you mentioned with Clemson and North Carolina (hence my almost 10-1 comment). That said "should win" and "finding a way" to win are two different monsters.

    After some late season skids, I simply want to see Miami WANT this game. They pissed away the NC State game last year and lost at Boston College the year before.

    Finish 9-3. Go 3-1 in the month of November. Reach a solid bowl game. All are huge steps forward in a rebuilding year.

  3. How was AllCanes all over the map? He called it like it is.

    This is the type of game you would expect UM to win, but it all depends which team shows up. USF hasn't done much this year, except talk a big game about how badly they want to beat up Miami. Their wins haven't been impressive and their losses were very one sided.

    The Canes got beat up pretty good at Virginia Tech, but easily could've beaten Clemson and North Carolina if they didn't turn the damn ball over so much.

  4. I guess I just don't think any of the Miami wins are that impressive on 2nd look, except for the GaTech win. So when you denigrate South Florida's wins, one of which was over a common opponent, it's not saying a helluva lot about Miami. When you broke down the game itself, I think you did a decent job, per usual. But the South Florida Super Bowl comments and ragging on their schedule business, well, people in glass houses…..
    Hopefully a U can smack them down. Drop them by 20 and head into a bowl game on a high note. But I fear a close game. On the road. So I'm not holding my breath.

  5. "31-10, both teams came to play"

    Couldn't have said that any better myself.

    Was I the only one who thought the score was going to be like this??? I dont know why this game was even talked about. USF is full of U rejects. Not good enough to play at the U? Head to Tampa, im sure you can play there. This game was a joke as was the opponent Miami lined up against. USF is and will always be nothing more than a U punching bag. Part of the big 3????? L.O.L. Better luck next time baby bulls!

  6. "COULDN'T CARE LESS"
    As in, they care so little that they could not care less.
    Is it so hard to get right?

  7. We looked great today! I can't believe the regular season is done already. Other than one series in 2nd half the defense was very strong. I thought all the units played well. Overall, a great season. This team is very close to being at the top. Can't wait for the bowl game announcement. It probably won't be an at large BCS, but I think we deserve that. This team shows steady progress. I believe we have finally got the right coaching staff in place and with their stability and young players this team is getting close to being able to dominate week after week. I enjoy the blog. GO CANES!

  8. "South Florida got their wish.."

    All I can say is, be careful what you wish for! Big four no more!

    It's All About The U!

  9. "USF is and will always be nothing more than a U punching bag. Part of the big 3????? L.O.L. Better luck next time baby bulls!"

    Well, they did beat Florida State.

  10. I know that Canes fans will point at this game and laugh, but the truth is that USF is here to stay. This was a good win, but USF is a legit program in a BCS conference and will be a factor in Florida football for the forseeable future. They may be at the "bottom" of the four BCS Florida programs, but on any given year they could easily be in a BCS game. The win over Florida State was a start. They could have and should have played better today, but Miami is a much improved squad. Next year USF has games at Florida and Miami. Brutal, but it gives them more chances to prove they belong. The recruiting has been and will continue to be strong.

  11. I know that Canes fans will point at this game and laugh, but the truth is that USF is here to stay. This was a good win, but USF is a legit program in a BCS conference and will be a factor in Florida football for the forseeable future. They may be at the "bottom" of the four BCS Florida programs, but on any given year they could easily be in a BCS game. The win over Florida State was a start. They could have and should have played better today, but Miami is a much improved squad. Next year USF has games at Florida and Miami. Brutal, but it gives them more chances to prove they belong. The recruiting has been and will continue to be strong.

    Dan, time will tell if South Florida is "here to stay". There is some talent on that squad, but they have to eventually contend for a Big East title. Jim Leavitt has accumulated enough talent there to make noise in the Big East. No reason a UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, etc. is annually in the hunt and USF isn't… if they're indeed "here to stay" as you suggest.

    You say on "any given year they could easily be in a BCS game" – but until they ACTUALLY DO get to one, how can you really say that?

    As for your talk that Miami is "a much improved squad" – that's not what your big-mouthed Bulls brethren were saying leading up to this game. A LOT of smack talk on this blog the past few months from USF fans that SWORE Miami was going down yesterday. Fat chance.

    As for that win over Florida State, that was the 'start' of what? You beat a Noles bunch that stumbled to 6-6. If Miami can't take any credit for beating Florida State this year, neither can South Florida.

    USF is a nice little program, but a decade ago we were hearing the same thing about Central Florida and the Daunte Culpepper era. The Knights never got over the hump and are still trying to. Same will probably be said for South Florida.

    At day's end, you'll always get Miami, Florida and Florida State's scraps. Doesn't bode well for an up and coming program.

    Leavitt has been there a LONG time. He needs to eventually turn the corner and win the Big East. After than, THEN he can set his sights on taking out The Big Three.

Comments are closed.