Miami / Florida State : The 2010 Version

Another October means another Miami / Florida State showdown. There have been a few Labor Day kickoffs this past decade, but true enthusiasts know this one is perfectly scheduled a few weeks in, when both teams have a handful of games beneath their belts. Who are the Canes? Who are the Noles? How will both respond as one-loss teams, looking to make a run this season, both in the ACC as well as nationally? We’ll soon find out.

As expected, both sides are already jawing. Seminole faithful believe their squad is rejuvenated under first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher, while Hurricanes nationwide expect a mighty step forward year four of the Randy Shannon era. UM has faced a tougher road thus far – losing at Ohio State, but rebounding with wins at both Pittsburgh and Clemson. FSU got rocked at Oklahoma and won three straight, albeit against much lesser competition – BYU, Wake Forest and Virginia.

From everyone I’ve spoken with and heard from this week, Miami fans go in expecting a win this Saturday night at Sun Life. Cane enthusiasts feel they have the better team, that the Noles are unproven and that only Miami can beat Miami, through turnovers, sloppy play and mental mistakes. I tend to agree, but am quick to remember that when Florida State is on the other sideline, anything can happen. There are no gimmies in this rivalry.

I was all but sure of a Canes win back in 2002, predicting a 33-20 margin in my weekly column. Miami entered as defending national champs, riding a double-digit win-streak with two Heisman contenders in Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee, while Florida State had fallen to Louisville the previous week and simply didn’t look like they could hang against a loaded Canes squad.

UM was a semi-heavy favorite in this one and when McGahee scored halfway through the first quarter, it felt like a rout might be on. Mistakes and sloppy play killed that notion and FSU responded with 17 second quarter points, taking a 17-14 lead into the locker room, after Dorsey found Kellen Winslow II in the half’s final minute.

The rest is history. Florida State held the early fourth quarter lead at 27-14 and Miami answered with two late touchdowns; the game winner sparked by a little screen pass to McGahee which went for 68 yards, setting up Jason Geathers for the go-ahead score. The Noles had one final drive, a game clock that worked in their favor and in the end added a new chapter to the missed field goal legacy when Xavier Beitia sent his attempt Wide Left.

The Canes escaped, won out and made it back to the national championship game, while the Noles experienced a four-loss regular season, ending the year 9-5. Still, on that sweltering day in October, Florida State played as good as the defending champs and went toe-to-toe all day long, proving that you truly must throw everything out the window in a rivalry game.

This rivalry has seen it all. Missed kicks. Crazy turnovers. Sloppy rainy conditions. Sweltering heat. Daytime. Nighttime. Monstrous comebacks or collapses, depending which side you were on. A national championship may not hang in the balance, as it has in the past, but you can bet both sides will “bring it” like a BCS game in January.

I can’t speak as a Seminole (nor would I want to), but as a long-time Cane it truly feels like Miami is oh-so-close to being “back”, much closer than Florida State. Four games into this season, as mentioned before, Miami has been its own worst enemy. Stats-wise, the Canes hung tough at the Horseshoe. Ohio State fans cited the bowl loss to Wisconsin as their reason the Buckeyes would ‘own’ Miami in the trenches. Instead, the Canes came to play on both lines – especially defensively, where they held OSU to five field goals, shutting down Terrelle Pryor and crew in the red zone.

Pittsburgh started the season ranked in the middle of the Top 25, just like Miami. When the two met a few weeks back, the Canes throttled the Panthers, 31-3 at Heinz. A few weeks later at Clemson, Miami went toe-to-toe with a solid Tigers squad, forced six turnovers and rolled home with a 30-21 win, a 3-1 record and No. 13 ranking.

Interceptions. Penalties. The occasional missed opportunity – be it a dropped pass, muffed interception or whiff on a tackle. Those are the little things keeping a ‘good’ Miami squad from elevating its status to ‘great’.

Jacory Harris still threw two picks at Clemson, but got away with the flubs due to four touchdowns and stellar defense by his counterparts. The turnovers need to go away, but Harris should enter this week with some breathing room – knowing that he has both a stable of running backs and a slew of capable defenders who are ready to bail him out.

No one needs to be Superman this weekend. Miami needs a team effort to beat Florida State. The coaches preach it and the players know it. It’s simply a matter of doing it.

The Canes are without second-leading rusher Lamar Miller this weekend but that’s about it on the injury-front. Miami has enough depth both at running back and across the board to handle this meeting with their arch-rival.

Mark Whipple will attempt to match wits with Mark Stoops, the Noles first-year defensive coordinator. Stoops did a few minutes as defensive backs coach for the Canes a few years back and came to Tallahassee via Tucson this off-season. Gone is long-time staple Mickey Andrews, who always came aggressively at Miami, running his man-to-man but quick to blitz the quarterback and rattle some cages.

Stoops is living up to his namesake as Florida State has been sacking quarterbacks and shutting down the run, again albeit against lesser competition. (The Noles held the Sooners to less than 100 rushing yards, but when you’re passing for almost 400 yards, you don’t need to run much.)

On the other side, Jimbo Fisher is no longer just the offensive coordinator, but has taken Bobby Bowden’s place as ‘the guy’ in Tallahassee. Fisher called a good game against the Canes the last two years, but how does he handle the pressure of playcalling and head coach? Especially against a veteran defensive coordinator like John Lovett, who has really put his fingerprints on Miami’s defense (as has the addition of defensive line coach Rick Petri).

The Canes defensive scheme has always been relatively simple, reliant on the personnel. With the athletes and playmakers finally back in place, you’re seeing gang tackling, forced turnovers, strips and some bounce in the step of the entire unit. This collectively will be the best Miami defense the Noles have seen since 2003 … but again, anything can happen in this rivalry.

Some talking heads have picked Florida State with the upset, citing the fact that Fisher and the Noles “need” this signature win more than the Canes. The talk has been that FSU will be out to prove the OU loss was an aberration and not the norm. Maybe, but maybe not.

What if Florida State really isn’t “all that” this season? Year one for Fisher. Year one with Stoops calling the defense. The Noles have some playmakers in place, but across the board the talent doesn’t completely appear to be in tact.

Christian Ponder is a playmaker under center, but the big time wideouts and running backs aren’t what they once were in Tallahassee – proven when facing the lone good team Florida State has seen this year; Oklahoma. Ponder threw for 113 yards, two interceptions and no touchdowns. On the ground he rushed for 23 yards.

Based on what Miami has shown defensively the past few weeks, keeping Florida State’s offense in check should be doable – again, if the Canes come to play. Clemson featured as solid a quarterback and better running backs / wideouts and UM’s defense rose to the challenge. Same for Ohio State. The Canes turned the ball over all day long, but when it came time to tighten up in the red zone, it did just that.

Can Miami tighten up against Florida State this Saturday night? It’s the million dollar question in Coral Gables this week. Both teams know what’s at stake besides ACC positioning. Bragging rights. Recruits. Pride. There’s little margin for error when playing your brothers from another mother.

In many ways the Canes and Noles have mirrored each other for decades. Both dominated the landscape on and off the past thirty years, with seven championships between the two – and possibly more if the two schools didn’t play annually, often knocking each other from a top the rankings.

Both programs have been rebuilding, both due to coaching, a lack of recruiting / developing players and weathering the cyclical nature of this game. Miami started its comeback in 2007, having fired Larry Coker in late 2006, while Florida State let Bowden hang around a few years too many, leaving Fisher a little behind the eight ball entering this season.

This may not be the ‘game of the century’ it once was, but this is the most relevant Miami v. Florida State has truly felt since meeting in the BCS after the 2003 season.

The Canes have the upper hand, but the Noles will bring some heart and desire. This truly is anybody’s game, but you have to like Miami’s chances if the Canes can simply stay out of their own way.

Four games in, it’s time. J12 will limit the turnovers (one interception), receivers will catch catchable balls (can Travis Benjamin keep going off against FSU?), running backs will find holes (Berry, Mike James and Graig Cooper good to go), lines will take care of the trenches (Seantrel Henderson locked down the right side and there’s more depth) and the defense will continue to rise up (how many turnovers can be created?)

After three straight road games, it’s time for Miami to benefit from the sold out hometown crowd and to shine under the lights on ABC as the nation is watching. The Canes are ready and the Noles remain one small step behind.

The just-a-hunch-as-UM-is-due-to-finally-jell call:

Miami 31

Florida State 20

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