The Miami Hurricanes are off to Berkeley, California for a rare west coast road trip as the Cal Bears joined the Atlantic Coast Conference for the 2024 season; the former Pac-12 program already traveling to Auburn and Florida State earlier this year, upsetting the Tigers—while gifting the lifeless Seminoles their only victory of the season.
Miami hasn’t played in The Golden State since the 2008 season—falling 24-17 to Cal in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco—while it’s last west coast trip in the regular season was in 2000 when booking it all the way to Seattle and falling to Washington, 34-29 in a game that went on to keep the 10-1 Hurricanes out of the national championship Orange Bowl against Oklahoma.
The last time Miami faced a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff—fans have to time-travel all the way back to 1992 and a road trip to take on San Diego State in a regular season finale, where the Hurricanes rolled 63-17—en route to an undefeated season, a Heisman Trophy for Gino Torretta and a slot in the national championship Sugar Bowl, resulting in a 34-13 loss to eventual champs, Alabama.
ESPN’s College GameDay is making its first-ever trek to Berkeley—fueled by Miami’s 5-0 start, as well as one-loss Cal looking improved after a 6-7 campaign last fall—so ready or not, all eyes will be on the Hurricanes this weekend one week after surviving a upset attempt at the hands of long-time rival Virginia Tech.
Close, down-to-the-wire, comeback games—with thrilling, bullet-dodging energy—do one of two things to teams aspiring for greatness.
It either exposes them as a pretender who got lucky, or causes a deep-rooted reflection—college football’s equivalent of a near-death experience—that serves as a wake-up call and resets those pre-season goals, while reaffirming all of the work that went into what was a planned season of greatness; as well as a proverbial chip on the shoulder fueled by a week’s worth of hate, doubt and mockery.
Lots of national and regional opinions on Miami here as October gets underway; the standard ping-ponging one would expect from a sports media that loves to capitalize on and talk-up the Hurricanes for clicks, likes and shares.
MIAMI’S FAST START SLOWED BY STRUGGLES AGAINST HOKIES
For those keeping score, most pundits had Miami dropping the opener at Florida; chatter that ‘The Swamp’ would be too big for Cam Ward in his first game in the orange and green.
After the Canes demolished the Gators in every phase of the game—a dominating 41-17 victory—it was rose petals thrown at Miami’s feet; all of the Heisman chatter and College Football Playoffs odds skyrocketing; which lasted over the next few weeks as UM expectedly made mince-meat out of Florida A&M and Ball State before a road trip to South Florida.
Fresh off a tight three-plus quarters against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, talk that the Bulls’ ground game was going to run on the Canes—while a packed night game in Tampa would create one of those closer-than-the-experts-think type showdowns.
Miami 50, South Florida 15 and a complete rout after a back-and-forth first half.
Next up; the start of ACC season and a Friday night showdown against Virginia Tech—an old Big East rival who Miami’s taken to school nine of the past dozen time these two have squared off.
The Hokies were thought to be a dark horse this season; returning 20 starters year three under head coach Brent Pry—who like Mario Cristobal, was also looking for that third-year step forward as a program—but having gotten off to slow starts against Vanderbilt and Rutgers, a deceiving 2-2 record had the masses underestimating Virginia Tech, while forgetting the hard-fought nature of this rivalry over the years.
Miami was a -17.5 favorite, despite the last three wins in the series being decided by 19 combined points—though the Canes did roll in Blacksburg by 24 in 2018 and 18 at HardRock in 2017–so the spread wasn’t unheard of and it could’ve easily been a route with better focus and ball control.
Still, college football fans have learned by now all that transitive property stuff that worked better years ago—it no longer applies in today’s game, where anybody can truly beat anybody on any given Saturday.
The quick dismissal of Virginia Tech—an ACC contender when the season started—over two close losses where the Hokies started slow; it caused too many to underestimate a tough squad from Blacksburg, while simply believing fun-to-watch Miami was now invincible with Ward.
CANES REACHING DO-OR-DIE MID-SEASON POINT
Regardless, it’s new week amidst a sea of one-game seasons and all focus shifts to Cal—which in reality should be Miami’s coming out party if lessons were learned against Virginia Tech, if Ward is the leader he’s been billed as and if this coaching staff put a collective book up these Hurricanes’ arses—driving home how the got away with a sloppy game last week, but the margin for error is now zero with this remaining schedule.
Wherever this season goes for Miami, it really feels like this long road trip to Cal is the game that will push the Hurricanes up a few notches—or will knock them back to reality—as anything other than an impressive bounce-back game showing that last week was an aberration; it hurts this team’s stock in what looked like a magical 2024 run one month in.
Georgia Tech broke Miami last year.
The non-kneel by Cristobal, the three interceptions by Tyler Van Dyke and the horrible call on what wasn’t a Don Chaney fumble that set up the Yellow Jackets’ improbable comeback—everything about that game unraveled a 4-0 start and any good will that came from upsetting Texas A&M weeks prior.
Miami rolled to Chapel Hill for a night showdown against North Carolina a week later—Van Dyke with two interceptions and a fumble, as the Hurricanes’ offense was picked apart by quarterback Drake Maye and his four-touchdown performance—and the Tar Heels blew it out with a 21-0 third quarter for a 41-31 victory.
Van Dyke completely lost his mojo and Miami’s season went down the drain along with their spiraling quarterback; six more interceptions over his next three games as the Hurricanes stumbled to a 7-5 regular season, with Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin before the bowl game.
Of course this is where the Ward effect is expected to be different; the former Washington State transfer more of a game, an alpha dog and a leader who was brought on board for moments like this—where seasons aren’t just salvaged, but get rejuvenated through action.
WARD’S ALPHA DOG X-FACTOR ENERGY MUST SHINE
A safe bet it was business-as-usual for Ward this week, as should be—the driven-by-disrespect quarterback with what looked like a bad call on an early fumble, as well as a safety jumping a route and a ball behind the receiver on his second interception—while still showing the moxie needed late to lead Miami on what proved to be a gam-winning drive.
Ward led his Canes on a 10-play, 57-yard drive—capped by an Isaiah Horton touchdown and highlighted by the quarterback’s heads-up flip to tight end Riley Williams for a 26-yard gain that looked to be a sack, setting up the score.
While Miami was in survival-mode, Cal was on a bye week after suffering their first loss of the season—falling 14-9 at Florida State, in what was the Seminoles’ first win of the new season as the Bears lost their first-ever ACC game.
Prior to, the Bears beat up on UC Davis in their opener before upsetting Auburn on the road as the Bears’ defense picked off Tigers’ quarterback Payton Thorne four times, while running back Jarquez Hunter coughed-up a back-breaking fourth quarter fumble.
Regarding the road trip to Tallahassee, Cal managed 410 total yards to Florida State’s 284—the Bears held to three field goals and missing two as their offense constantly stalled out.
Cal’s signature season win came on the heels of a brutal offensive performance—and some good defense—at Auburn, while it was the Bears’ offense somehow stifled by a Seminoles’ defense that as been on its heels all season—which makes this squad tough to sum up on paper.
To Cal’s credit, they’ve run the football well this year—albeit against lesser defenses—while Miami showed some vulnerability against the ground game last week as Bhayshul Tuten rushed for 141 yards and a score against the Canes; 55 of which came on the long touchdown run.
Jadyn Ott was named preseason all-ACC running back andhas been slowed by a bum ankle, but it said to be back to 100% this week—while Jaivian Thomas held it down in his absence, leading the Bears with 267 yards on the season and averaging 7.0 yards-per attempt.
Still, the running game sub-plot for this game is less about what Bears backs want to do and how Canes’ offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson commits to using his running backs in this cross-country road trip.
CANES’ GROUND ATTACK MUST SHOW UP AND OUT
Going back to Miami’s season opener at Florida, there was a more balance attack out of Dawson—a commitment to run the ball with Damien Martinez to establish a tone and to wear down the Gators’ defense, putting away the game in the second half.
Ward’s arm, legs and gamesmanship can certain temp any offensive coordinator in the college game to want to throw it around the yard or to chase big-play opportunities, but the commitment and discipline to running the football behind Miami’s tough offensive line is the key to long-term season success.
As much as Martinez has been hyped, the back hasn’t broken the 100-yard mark once this season—250 yards and four touchdowns in five games—while it doesn’t even feel like last year’s freshman sensation Mark Fletcher has come close to his post-injury potential this fall, eased back into action after a bowl game foot injury and sitting on 26 carries for 142 yards and three touchdowns on the year.
Behind the one-two punch, Miami also had 5-Star true freshman Jordan Lyle—who tore off a 91-yard touchdown run at South Florida in the fourth quarter—as well as the shifty and reliable Ajay Allen; another late-game terror ready to be unleashed, but only 17 carries for 143 yards and a touchdowns on the season.
Knowing that Cal leads the nation with ten interceptions—Miami right behind them with nine—no better way for the Hurricanes to protect the football and to ease into a long road trip and late night game than to simply commit early to running the football, wearing the Bears down depth-wise and setting up some deep shots for Ward with his talented bevy of receivers.
Defensively, Miami finally gets Reuben Bain back—last year’s ACC Defensive Freshman of the Year sidelined since the opening drive at Florida in the opener—as well as left tackle Jalen Rivers; a big plus as Markel Bell struggled in a back-up role last week; a suspect hold on Bell taking a Jacolby George touchdown off the board.
Ward threw a pick the next play and instead of a 21-7 lead, the Canes were fast in a 14-14 dogfight.
Damari Brown is still out at cornerback for Miami, but Cal still looks to be down their two top receivers for a fifth-straight game—Tobias Merriweather and Kyion Graves—which impacts the aerial assault of Columbus High grad and South Florida native Fernando Mendoza at quarterback for the Bears; looking to show-out against his hometown team.
It should also be noted that Mendoza was sacked 13 times the past two games and 16 times this season—while Miami is third in the nation with 18 sacks—which could set up both Bain and Tyler Baron to feast if the Hurricanes’ front seven plays up to standard and camps out in the Bears’ backfield all night.
Special teams-wise, Miami rolls with the reliable Andy Borregales at kicker, while Cal is deciding between Ryan Coe or freshman Derek Morris—Coe a dismal 5-of-11 on the year, missing two big kids at Florida State that were a deciding factor in that 14-9 loss.
MORE FOCUS ON INTANGIBLES THAN SUBSTANCE
The hype around this game is a big deal in the sense you have one of these new ACC match-ups with one of three new schools to join the conference—fellow former Pac-12 program Stanford, as well as Southern Methodist—as well as ESPN’s never-been-to-Berkeley-for-GameDay big energy and a rowdy night game between what looks like a solid undefeated contender and a one-loss team yet to prove much early this season.
Much like Miami’s opener at Florida, where there was more conversation about the stadium and overall environment than there were legit reasons the Gators would upset the Hurricanes—that seems to be the similar narrative surrounding what on paper feels like a mismatch.
The long flight, the time change, the late kickoff, GameDay’s presence—combined with Miami showing some vulnerability last week—it’s another showdown where the intangibles are stealing the headlines, opposed to Xs and Os and laying out a case for what the Bears have to do to upset the Hurricanes, outside of continuing to force turnovers to limit road team possessions.
Thankfully for Miami, Cristobal has coached games at Cal during his time at Oregon—while Ward and Martinez both faced the Bears in Berkeley during their time at Washington State and Oregon State, respectively.
On the other hand, Bears head coach Justin Wilcox is a sound defensive mind who found a way to pressure Ward in a loss to the Cougars last year; the quarterback still throwing for 354 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception in the 42-39 shootout—as well as three fumbles when heavily pressured—while Martinez had an 89-yard, one touchdowns performance as Oregon State rolled at Cal, 52-40.
When the dust settles on this one, it’ll be Miami’s commitment to running the football, winning trenches battles—welcoming back Rivers at left tackle and Bain at defensive tackle—that help round out a complete performance or the Hurricanes in Berkeley.
Ward will be Ward—and will do so behind a solid Miami offensive line, throwing to a handful of talented receivers while relying on a ground game that will set up some big-time plays—which should be a night and day difference from his last trek to Berkeley where he was running for his life all night and not given time to shine.
IF CANES PLAY THEIR GAME, ‘THE U’ ROLLS ALONG
Beyond that, the biggest sub-plot for this late night match-up; the ability of Miami to shake off last week’s slow starts and early mistakes, en route to the more familiar fast starts seen in four previous games.
The Hurricanes felt flat from the get-go against the Hokies; lackadaisical body language on the opening drive of a Friday night home conference opener—while Virginia Tech showed up shot out of a cannon, well aware that a 17-0 hole against Vanderbilt and 14-0 home deficit to Rutgers were the difference in those close games, as well as 2-2 versus 4-0.
This is not just a must-win game for Miami in regards to bigger team goals; this is the final game of the opening six-game stretch before a halfway point bye-week and reset—before a tough road game at Louisville, a home showdown against Florida State, a home game against Duke, a road trip to Georgia Tech, senior day at HardRock hosting Wake Forest and a regular season finale road trip to Syracuse.
This season is far from over with a loss, but failing to show up big at Cal will definitely deflate the hype around a Miami team with a rather pedestrian schedule the rest of the way—only one more ranked squad in Louisville and few statement opportunities to play catch-up or dazzle en route to what should be a berth against what looks to be Clemson in a conference title game.
ESPN GameDay focus against a one-loss Cal team and nationally-televised 7:30 p.m. PT kickoff; this is the first time all eyes are truly on Miami this years—a game that truly should be more bark than bit, with the Hurricanes able to shut up last week’s doubters after the Hokies played above their pay grade last week.
Commit to the ground game, protect Ward—and the football—and improve last week’s arm-tackling against the Hokies; this is a solid bounce-back win for Miami and the kind of game where we’ll truly see if this transfer quarterback’s alpha dog energy and confidence is as advertised and permeating up and down this roster.
Conversely, if Miami show sup dazed and confused, turns the ball over, makes bad decisions and has another half-ass defensive performance—the biggest upset out of Northern Illinois at Notre Dame could be brewing for an imperfect storm in Berkeley.
All that to say, believing in these Hurricanes until given a legit reason not to; Cristobal and flashy-and-tough crew showing up on a mission, ready to bounce back and looking to silence the critics after last week.
The Prediction: Miami 34, Cal 20
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a storyteller for some exciting brands and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.