Sometimes life’s best lessons are learned not through what one is doing or not doing, but by simply watching how others are handle similar situations—garnering wisdom from their experiences, avoiding pitfalls en route to ultimate success.
Over an eight-day span, a microcosm of the 2024 college football season seemed to play itself out in the Sunshine State—two of these things not like the other.
The first domino fell when No. 10 Florida State was upset by Georgia Tech squad in Ireland on August 24th; the Seminoles with high expectations after a 13-1 run last fall and going 23-4 combined over the past two seasons.
The unspoken “unfinished business” mantra after feeling snubbed by the College Football Playoffs committee last season, Florida State vowed to reload, despite losing almost a dozen key players to the NFL Draft—including their all-everything quarterback Jordan Travis—who willed the Noles to some big wins during his tenure.
A week later, the other two-thirds of the state’s ‘Big Three’ faced off in ‘The Swamp’ as No. 19 Miami took on Florida—the first meeting in Gainesville since 2008, with both sides feeling equally as confident about year three for both their respective head coaches; each program now on high-alert after Florida State’s crash-and-burn.
Miami soared while Florida face-planted in a 41-17 rout.
The pundits talked for week about how differently Sunday would look and feel for each program, depending on who emerged victorious—and after that beat-down, everything is coming up roses or Mario Cristobal after the Hurricanes dominant performance, while Billy Napier isn’t even on a ‘hot seat’ at this rate—he’s sitting in lava as phone lines and podcasts are burning up; fans already in tail number-tracking mode and fantasizing about Lane Kiffin leaving five years at Ole Miss to resurrect the Gators.
Insult to injury, Florida State took it on the chin again on Labor Day when Boston College rolled into Tallahassee and manhandled the Seminoles, 28-13—Mike Norvell backsliding in year five without Travis to save him, while the gap between Miami winning the Cam Ward sweepstakes and Florida State’s second-choice DJ Uiagaleilei looks as different as top salesman getting the Cadillac Eldorado in Glengarry Glen Ross and runner-up taking home a set of steak knives.
One usually has to wait into a couple months into a new season for these kind of fireworks, as well as such clear definition between the state of these three powerhouse programs. Sometimes it can even come down to the final week of the season when the Gators and Noles tussle late November. Not this year.
Florida State and Florida fans were in ‘surrender cobra’ mode by the end of their season-openers—both program reeling and trying to make sense of what just smacked each upside the head—while everything Miami thought and hoped it had under the hood is there for the Hurricanes to run a hell of a race this season, barring they stay on track.
One game doesn’t make a season, but it can also prove to be a big enough sample-sizing to make some educated guesses regarding what’s going on with each program, coaching staff and a roster full of players who started the season thinking one thing, and are now dealing with another.
NORVELL’S NOLES PROVING TO BE A FUGAZI
Florida State’s issues are a bigger problem than an 0-2 start; the Noles’ program is being exposed for their fifth-year head coach’s inability to build a roster through both recruiting and the portal—as well as doing this without being able to define any real modus operandi, identity or culture in Tallahassee.
Things seemed to be turning for Norvell in year three—Florida State eking out a 24-23 win over LSU on Labor Day weekend in 2022 as the Noles’ head coach was 9-13 two years in.
4-0 quickly became 4-3 after losing to the only three ranked teams FSU would play all season—No. 22 Wake Forest, No. 14 North Carolina State and No. 4 Clemson—but stats got padded with wins over five more unranked teams; Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, Louisiana and Florida—before taking on a 6-6 dog of an Oklahoma team in a third-tier bowl game, year one for Brent Venables back in Norman.
Perception was reality as 10-3 was in the books; Florida State finishing No. 13 in the country and rolling into 2023 as a preseason No. 8 and getting the jump on No. 8 LSU in their first game of the Jayden Daniels era; their future Heisman-winning quarterback a bit pedestrian out the gate.
The Noles were loaded by way of the transfer portal—Norvell with some key additions and instant-impact guys like Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell, Darrell Jackson, Tre Benson, Johnny Wilson and Jared Verse picked up in back-to-back seasons—but only the 20th- and 19th-ranked recruiting classes in 2022 and 2023, which Norvell is now paying for.
Of course no bigger alternate-universe moment for Florida State than being forced to settle on Uiagaleilei when Ward chose the NFL—only to double back to first-choice Miami—as the drop-off in leadership and overall play from Travis to their new damaged-goods transfer quarterback is next-level bad.
WARD-TO-MIAMI AND ITS DOMINO EFFECT
Conversely, Miami’s sliding-doors moment those first two weeks of January changed everything—not just for the 2024 season, but potentially trajectory-wise for the Hurricanes with the next several recruiting classes and future portal pick-up if this fall goes as planned.
Ward’s original New Year’s Day announcement that he was NFL-bound was the ultimately set-back.
Uiagaleilei chose Florida State, Kansas State’s Will Howard was Ohio State-bound and the notion was that Miami’s all-in approach on Ward blew up in their face. The ball-busting got even worse a week into the new year when the Canes announced adding Albany quarterback Reese Poffenbarger to the roster—but on January 13th, the unexpected announcement that Ward had a change of heart and was Miami-bound and putting off his NFL dream another year.
Cristobal and staff talked up The Ward Effect all off-season; the alpha dog energy, the leadership qualities, the ability to make everybody around him level-up and wanting to put this entire thing on his back.
Ward casually rolled into ‘The Swamp’ and start eluding defenders and dropping dimes. He casually strolled out of bounds when nothing was there—or was Houdini-like in his ability to evade tackles; rolling, spinning and biding time as receivers found ways to get open and make plays.
In the end, a 385-yard, three touchdown performance—Miami fans landing their Neo and ‘the one’ who looks ready to be that transformative quarterback that makes up for so many misses under center over the years.
“Cam Ward is in the Matrix. He is operating on a different plane. He has a casualness to what he’s doing that almost looks nonchalant, but then you realize that he’s seeing in real time and he’s like, ‘nah, I’m good'”, shared ESPN legend Scott Van Pelt post-game.
The veteran commentator went on to state that Ward takes Miami from being ‘meh’ to “a scary [expletive] team because what we saw [against Florida] is not a one-off. I think that’s who he’ll be all season long.”
The pundits has Miami ranked No. 19 to start the season—as well as Florida State at No. 10—and less than two weeks in the Noles are 0-2 and unranked, while the Canes jumped up to twelfth in the latest polls.
CRISTOBAL’S ALL-IN PROP; PAYING OFF
There was lots of chatter before Miami visited Florida surrounding which third-year head coach needed the game more.
Most landed on Napier, but in reality it was Dead Billy Walking going back to a five game losing streak to end last season; a win over the Canes stopping the bleeding temporarily, as even Vegas had the over-under on Gators wins this year at 4.5—due to a brutal schedule that wraps with Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State—as well as early showdowns with Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Kentucky.
In reality, the pressure was on Cristobal in this all-in year for Miami—reeling in Ward and then spending big in the portal to complement his game with solid chess pieces across the board. The beefed-up offensive line, the two-deep on one of the better defensive lines in the nation, an insanely-talent wide receivers room and a stable of running back—the only supposed know was the Canes’ secondary, which went lockdown, no-fly-zone-mode in ‘The Swamp’—batting down passes and picking off Florida quarterbacks twice in the rout.
Cristobal entered the season 12-13 after a rough start at his alma mater; fast realizing it wasn’t a paint-and-patch clean-up job regarding what Manny Diaz left behind. Miami was a shit-show culture-wise and it was going to take an overturned roster to clean this thing up.
Prior to the portal, it’d have been a five-year process to build out this roster in Butch Davis like fashion—bringing in talented freshmen for their baptism-by-fire and by the time those kids were seniors, the new freshmen would be playing at a program that took their lumps and understood the mission regarding what it took to be a champion.
Cristobal has always been a masterful acquirer of talent—winning Recruit of the Year honors in 2015 when at Alabama under Nick Saban—but with a massive collective behind him and virtually a blank checkbook to play the NIL game, it’s hunting season in South Florida and Miami is stacking bodies in a way that actually puts things ahead of schedule.
Ward was the ultimately prize in the off-season big-game hunting and barring he stays healthy, Miami is truly in the upper echelon of teams in 2024; all ESPN critics placing them in the top four of their way-too-early-for-postseason Playoffs predictions.
Apropos that Miami has a ‘Mario’ at the helm, as the old Nintendo game ‘Super Mario Brothers’ featured ‘warp zones’—drop-down tunnels the main character could squat into that would take him from Level One to worlds Two, Three or Four—or cutting to worlds Six, Seven or Eight from the Level Four—these sneaky warp zones keeping players from having to play several extra boards and levels, while working to get to the final battle at the end of Level Eight.
CAPITALIZING ON RIVALS FAILURES; A MUST
Cristobal and his Hurricanes feel in line for a ‘warp zone’ kind of season—not just in chasing greatness and overall improvement, but in the sense that both the Seminoles and Gators seem like they’re playing their games straight through—which includes a lot more pitfalls, challenges and lost lives en route to the finish.
Beyond that, addition by subtraction as both Florida and Florida State are backsliding and are in for long seasons—the recruiting trail rumor mill in full force after Miami showed out in front of three dozen Gators recruits in the end zone, near the Canes tunnel—a lot of jawing and “don’t go here, come to ‘The U'” chatter which already has the talking heads crystal balling some current kids committed else as Miami flips.
Cristobal also earns a world class sales pitch if Ward exceeds expectations this fall—barring the former Washington State quarterback stays healthy—a Heisman-like season isn’t a stretch as Miami is already the talk of college football after that smackdown of Florida, which will last as long as the wins keep stacking up this fall.
A banner year in Coral Gables this fall changes the entire narrative—not just regarding the allure for top high school recruits, but for coveted portal kids who who see a Miami as a premier pit-stop en route to chasing NFL dreams.
There will always be that contingent of college football players who want a more-traditional college experience than what a small, private university like Miami can offer—but few of those schools offer what ‘The U’ can when it comes to a one- or two-year upperclassmen experience, where they can get maximum exposure playing for the Canes—while also a place to live and train year-round, as countless athletes from all professional leagues call South Florida home in the off-season.
We’re also talking about an entire generation of players who never witnessed first-hand what it looks like when Miami on top; how ‘The U’ becomes this pop culture force and the biggest ticket in town—as The Magic City shows up and out for a winner; the Hurricanes a bigger draw in the ’80s than the hometown Dolphins, while the turn of the century saw Miami turning into a basketball town when the Heat started hoisting trophies.
Winning big in a college town makes you the biggest fish in that small pond, but when the Hurricanes are getting shit done, ‘The U’ becomes the biggest fish in Biscayne Bay—and for those of us who lived through the ’80s, early ’90s and early ’00s, we know just how differently college football hits when Miami is rolling; the bandwagon fills up quick as there’s a cool-factor with the Hurricanes that others in the game simply can’t replicate.
Something special is brewing this season; Ward leading Hurricanes into ‘The Swamp’ and just exuding coolness—playing at his speed, while everything else moved in slow motion. Florida faithful talked up the environment of the venue, predicting it’d swallow the transfer quarterback up alive—Ward letting his play do the talking and all business for the Canes, until taking a few post-game shots at Gators loudmouths.
“I played at USC. USC wasn’t packed, but it was louder than this,” Ward said after Miami defeated Florida. “I played at Oregon and it was louder than this … Washington was one of the loudest environments I’ve played.”
Insult to injury and glorious for a Miami fan enjoying the trajectory of this program, while in-state rivals remain in full-blown meltdown-mode.
GATORS & NOLES; ALWAYS MISSING THE POINT
While every red-blooded Canes fan has gone back to rewatch the win over the Gators, a suggestion to also go down the YouTube rabbit-hole—to not enjoy watching Florida vloggers in meltdown-mode, but also a reminder of how insane fandom looks when things are completely sideways.
The Five Stages Of Grief are in full-force for both Gators and Seminoles nations—where they are regarding ‘denial’, ‘anger’, ‘bargaining’, ‘depression’ and ‘acceptance’; completely on the individual—but also very relatable for Hurricanes fans watching Miami’s struggle the past two decades.
What was a lot of Xs and Os chatter last week and breaking down the match-ups; the aftermath is simply just breaking-down—fans and former players sitting around in taped group therapy sessions, talking in circles about the how and why their programs are in shambles.
Because Florida just lost to Miami, there’s been more of a focus on Gators tears and this flailing fan base—players from past eras in Gainesville talking about how Urban Meyer ran things in his day, just like Canes fans bitching over the years about what current hardships and how a Jimmy Johnson or Butch Davis would’ve done thing in their day.
The common denominator for Miami’s struggles over the years; garbage-in, garbage-out and a cash-poor program making low-rent hires and hoping for success—refusing to invest big money in the football program to build a winner—which changed for ‘The U’ in late 2021, when having seen enough of the Manny Diaz, false-bravado, Turnover Chain era of football, where a beta head coach wanted to be liked and accepted by players, opposed to feared and respected.
The powers-that-be came together, decided enough was enough—and not only agreed to a 10-year, $80-million deal for Cristobal—they also gave him a blank checkbook to bring on the recruiting trail, while construction got underway on campus to upgrade facilities; another reason Miami sent lackey athletic director Blake James packing and brought in a veteran like Dan Radakovich from Clemson.
It’s one not-so-simple, multi-million dollar question for both Florida and Florida State—how financially committed are you to playing big-boy college football—as anything less than all-in won’t break the cycle either is on.
Sure, the Noles can have a little run if a good-enough quarterback overachieves like Travis did—and maybe the Gators throwing true freshman DJ Lagway into the fire this season keeps him from running to the portal this off-season—but there is no long-term vision for either program without a massive financial investment.
BIG-MONEY GAME; ONLY THE RICH SURVIVE
Gators fans are sitting at 0-1 in what is going to be an uphill battle of a season; many fantasizing about reeling in Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss—who undoubtedly be a monster hire for Florida—but again, who is going to foot that bill? Where is the money to buy out Napier? Where is the money to buy out Kiffin? Where is the money to offer him a multi-year contract worth at least $10-million a year—and after all that, where is the money to start a massive collective that will give him the funds and resources to go out and rebuild the Florida program that Napier and every coach since Meyer hasn’t been able to build?
Same for Florida State in regard to Norvell, as you can expect some chatter there if year five proves to be a big backsliding disaster after success in years three and four.
The Noles paid roughly $20-million to get rid of Willie Taggart five years ago and they’d be on the hook to pay Norvell a cool $6-million to get rid of him at the end of 2024—and that’s without reeling in a new big-time coach, or building a collective for said coach to recruit proper and level-up the program; all harsh realities for a program that spent much of last seasons scrapping to get out of the ACC because the SEC would provide them a better TV revenue share, as FSU is admittedly cash-strapped.
Where it goes from here, it’s all in Cristobal and his Canes’ hands—but an important reminder that the stakes are raised even more right now as rivals are reeling, while Miami just opened 2024 with their best-case scenario smackdown of a hated rival—with a shot to do the same to Florida State late October.
Each week is a massive opportunity to grow, to stay in the college football news cycle, to repair the brand and remind people how much more fun this sport is with Miami rolling—while Florida and Florida State continue on a path to wheels-off mode as each new loss or setback just pours gas on an already roasting dumpster fire.
Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a storyteller for some exciting brands and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.
