Analyst Phil Steele writes and breaks down college football with a mad scientist-like approach… which is welcomed in the cookie cutter world of senseless preseason rags. Steele does his homework and truly ‘breaks down’ teams in a way that Athlon and Lindy’s just mail it in. Below, Phil’s thoughts on the 2010 Miami Hurricanes:
QUARTERBACKS – UM has had some great QB’s in its history. In 2008 the battle was between rFr Robert Marve (PS#12) and true frosh Jacory Harris (PS#7). Marve started 11 but threw for just 1,293 (55%, 9-13). Harris came off the bench vs Duke and led 4 TD drives in the fi nal 2.5 Q’s. He threw the TD pass to force OT and another TD in OT for the win vs UVA. He finished with 1,195 (61%, 12-7). Last year all of Harris’ competition transferred. Marve went to Purdue in May and his backups Taylor Cook (PS#47) and Cannon Smith (PS#64) left over the summer. That left his bkps as true frosh AJ Highsmith (PS#61) and walk-ons Matt Perrelli and Spencer Whipple (6’2″ 210 Jr, OC’s son). Harris had a phenomenal fi rst 2 gms (656 yd) and was receiving Heisman mention but was harassed vs VT in UM’s 1st loss. Versus Duke, Harris practiced with a soft cast on his throwing hand and was barely able to grip the ball but was still the ACC POW hitting 25-43-348. He threw for 3,352 (59.6%) with 24 TD’s becoming just the 7th QB (1st S/’02, Ken Dorsey) in UM history to top 3,000 passing. Unfortunately Harris also threw 17 int (#2 FBS). Harris should be one of the top QB’s in the country but there would be a large drop-off if he is injured.
RUNNING BACKS – It surprises me that the “U” has had just six 1,000 yd rushers (Edgerrin James twice) in its history. In ’06 Javarris James (PS#22) led with 802 (4.6). In ’07 he started 12 and rushed for 582 (3.7) but Fr Graig Cooper (PS#62) led with 682 (5.5). Both ret’d in ’08 but Javarris James (ankle inj) only rushed for 286 (4.2). Cooper led again with 841 (4.9) while rFr Lee Chambers (5’10” 192 Jr, PS#35) had 116 (6.4). LY all 3 ret’d and they added Damien Berry (PS#37), true frosh Lamar Miller (PS#15) and Mike James (PS#58). FB Patrick Hill (255 lbs) is a solid blk’r and was impressive early but RS (inj) with Mike James (220 lbs) taking over at FB. Cooper led again (695, 5.2) but Berry (no att fi rst 4) had 162 (11.6) vs Fla A&M and finished #2 with 616 and a tm high 6.6 ypc. Javarris James contributed 492 (4.8) and Chambers (miss 4) had 153 (3.6). Not listed below are FB’s John Calhoun (6’3″ 255 Jr, PS#315) and David Thompson (5’10” 245 So). They lose Javarris James (2162 car rush yd) and Cooper is doubtful after an ACL. They add 2 VHT true frosh and could still be close to the ’09 version.
RECEIVERS – In 2008 Miami had to replace 2 of their top 3 rec’s and the top returnee was Sam Shields (346, 12.8 in ’07). They used a lot of true frosh including Aldarius Johnson (PS#9) who led with 332 (10.7), Thearon Collier (PS#52, 324,12.5), LaRon Byrd (PS#44, 228, 10.9) and Travis Benjamin (PS#56, 5 st, 293 yd). TE Dedrick Epps (PS#24LB) started 10 (304, 13.8). Epps tore his ACL in Jan of ’09 but ret’d for camp. The unit ret’d basically intact last year and a new star emerged. Leonard Hankerson, who is 6’3″ and was compared to Andre Johnson, had a problem with drops his first 2 yrs. He led with 801 (17.8). Benjamin was #2 with 501 and an impressive 17.3 ypc and 6’4″ Byrd was #3 (460, 13.9). Aldarius Johnson missed 3 and dropped to 276 (17.2). Epps was #6 with 247 (13.0). TE Jimmy Graham (basketball) was added in the fall and his first 3 catches all went for TD’s (213 ,12.5). Not listed below are Kendal Thompkins (5’10” 180 So, PS#263), Devon Hill (6’1″ 165 rFr, track team), Ben Bruneau (6’2″ 205 Jr, PS#243) and Davon Johnson (6’0″ 192 So, PS#47).This year they lose TE’s Epps (9 st, #7DC SD), Tervaris Johnson (8 rec) and Graham (1 st, #3DC NO). This is their most exp’d unit in at least 3 years.
OFFENSIVE LINE – Last year UM had to replace 2 st’rs and for the fi rst time in the Randy Shannon era, had an exp’d O-line. Still, they only avg 138 ypg rush (3.9) while allowing 35 sks (8.4%) which is the 6th straight ssn under 4.0 ypc. This yr they lose 1st Tm ACC LT Jason Fox (11 st, 4Y st’r, #4DC DET), RT Matt Pipho (13 st) and C AJ Trump (13 st, 2Y st’r). Seven of the top 10 return. Despite being a little less experienced, they could put up stronger numbers in 2010.
DEFENSIVE LINE – Due to an inj to DE Eric Moncur in ’08, Miami basically had 1 ret st’r. That unit allowed 152 ypg rush and their 4.0 ypc allowed was their highest S/’97 (31 tm sks). Last year they had to replace 2 DL (comb 16 sts) but ret 7 with starting exp. Unfortunately the unit was extremely banged up (especially at the start). Moncur failed to make a start (6 gm) and 8 diff players started (11 sts was the most). Due to the injuries, they only improved to 122 ypg rush (3.5) with 24 sks (DL had 18). TY they lose 3rd Tm ACC DT Joe Joseph (11 st, 29 tkl) and Moncur (10 tkl). Eight ret with starting exp (all 4 proj’d st’rs VHT’s). Not listed below are Adewale Ojomo (6’4″ 262 Jr, PS#58, missed LY due to a broken jaw), Dyron Dye (6’5″ 240 rFr, PS#31) and Gavin Hardin (6’4″ 245 So, PS#62). If they stay healthier, this is one of the top D-lines in the country.
LINEBACKERS – Last year the Hurricanes had to replace their #1 tackler (#6DC) and 2 players who comb for 4 sts (51 tkl). They got back Colin McCarthy (9 st, 74 tkl, ’07) who had 4 sts in ’08 but RS (inj). UM’s D was dominant early in ’08 but when McCarthy went out it was noted that they were a totally different D without him. Last year McCarthy played all 13 (10 st) but the group was hit hard by inj as they had just 3 healthy LB’s who took meaningful snaps (5 LB’s played). This year they lose their #1 tackler for a 3rd straight season in 2nd Tm ACC Darryl Sharpton (12 st, 8.5 tfl , #4DC HOU) and Arthur Brown (13 tkl) but have 4 of the top 6 back. Despite the loss of its #1 tackler, this looks like one of the premier units in the ACC.
DEFENSIVE BACKS – UM opened the decade with finishes of #5, #2, #9, #3, #13, #1 and #24 in my pass D rankings. They surprisingly dropped to #53 and #66 in ’07 & ’08. Last year they had to replace 2 st’rs then CB Ryan Hill and S JoJo Nicolas (7 st ’08) each just played in 3 and RS. CB Chavez Grant (7 st ’08) only had 2 starts (10 tkl). SS Randy Phillips put off surgery until after the season (torn labrum) and was not 100%. They moved the team’s fastest player, WR Sam Shields to CB (10 st). True frosh FS Ray-Ray Armstrong (21 tkl) drew comparisons to the hard hitting Sean Taylor. UM moved up to #39. This year they lose Shields (41 tkl, 2 pbu), Phillips (7 st, 53 tkl, 2 int) and Grant (2 st, 10 tkl). With the return of Hill, they have 6 back with 5+ starts in a season and 7 VHT’s in the 2 deep and should have their highest fi nish in my PDR in at least 4 yrs.
SPECIAL TEAMS – Miami has produced some excellent ST players including Devin Hester and have fi nished #1, #27, #53, #8, #5, #28 and #52 in my ST rankings from ’00-’06. In ’07 they had to replace their P and K and the return game was below avg causing them to plummet to #104. In ’08 they improved to #33 and two players were key. P/K Matt Bosher (PS#4) had a 36.2 net in ’08 and was a Groza Award semi-fi nalist hitting 18 of 20 (long 52). Speedy true frosh Travis Benjamin avg 11.3 on PR’s and 22.5 on KR’s. Bosher improved his punting avg to 42.5 in ’09 (net 35.7) while hitting a solid 14-16 FG’s (long 51). Surprisingly the top PR was Thearon Collier (13.2) who had 2 TD’s and brought back memories of Hester. The top KR was Graig Cooper (22.4). They did however allow 3 blk’d punts (2 vs UVA) and surprisingly slipped to #53. With everyone back (Cooper ?), this should be one of the most improved ST units in the country.
COACHES – Although Randy Shannon starts his 4th season as HC, he enters his 17th year here. He was the DC here for 6 years (’01-’06) prior to taking over and has fielded fine units each season. He replaced 6 year HC Larry Coker who was 60-15 with a National Title. Four diff coaches have accounted for Miami’s 5 National Titles over the last 27 years. LY they brought in their 3rd OC in 5 years in Mark Whipple. Whipple graduated from Brown where he was the starting QB from ’77-’78. He spent 16 years as a HC (121-59) including 6 at UMass taking them to the IAA Title in ’98. He owns a Super Bowl ring as the Steelers’ QB cch from 2004-’06 and was an off asst with PHI in ’08. DC John Lovett is in his 2nd year and was UNC’s ST cch in ’07 and ’08 and the DC previously at BG, Clem, Auburn, Cincinnati and Maine.
PHIL’S FORECAST – Howard Schnellenberger guided Miami to a National Championship in 1983 and UM also won a National Title under Jimmy Johnson (1987) and two under Dennis Erickson (1989, 1991). They had a rare losing year in 1997 due to scholarship reductions but Butch Davis had them pointed in the right direction and in 2000 they went 11-1 and finished #2. Larry Coker guided them to a National Title in his first season (2001) and almost repeated the next year when they came up just short in the Fiesta Bowl vs Ohio St (2OT). After an 11-2 season in ’03, they won 9 games in each of the next 2 years but suffered a blowout loss to LSU in the 2005 Peach Bowl. At 6-6 in ’06 they needed a 1 pt win over Nevada just to have a winning season. The Randy Shannon era then began. Miami was unranked in the preseason for the fi rst time since 1998 and went through an up and down 2007. The highs included a 31-0 lead over #20 TX A&M at home (34-17 fi nal) and a fortunate win over Fla St on the road. The lowest of lows was being embarrassed in the final game of the Orange Bowl 48-0 by Virginia (previous worst home loss was to ND 44-0 in 1973). Their 5-7 record was their worst since 1977. The team went 2-6 and was -66.4 ypg (3rd worst) in the ACC. They limped into 2008 12-13 over the previous two seasons but moved into Dolphin Stadium and had 18 seniors in the 2 deep but just 9 ret st’rs. They again had their moments as they only trailed eventual National Champ Florida 9-3 in the 4Q. After they beat VT 16-14, they were in 1st place in the Coastal and ranked (#23) for the first time in 2+ yrs. On a cold night in Atlanta they were whipped by GT, lost to NCSt on the road and later dropped their bowl to Cal to fall to 7-6. Coming into last year they were a .500 team over the previous 3 years. They had to replace both coor’s but qualified for Turnovers=Turnaround (-10 in ’08) and six of my 9 sets of power ratings called Miami the most talented team in the ACC. They were the first team in ACC history that opened the year facing 4 ranked foes (killer sked) taking on Fla St, GT, VT and Okla and when I did my preseason radio shows, many speculated an 0-4 start. They got a narrow win over Fla St on the road then dominated #14 GT (454-228 yd). After being whipped by VT in the rain on the road, they rebounded to knock off #8 Okla. At 5-1 and ranked #8, Miami lost in OT to Clemson. At 7-2 NC had 77 & 44 yd IR TD’s and UM lost despite a 435-329 yd edge. They knocked off Duke and USF to move to 9-3 but were bothered by the cold weather in the bowl and lost to Wisconsin. This year they have 13 ret st’rs and had 11 sts lost to injury in ’09. While they were just 5-3 they were +71.4 ypg in ACC play (4th best). UM had the NFL record for consec years with a 1st Rnd DC (1995-2008) end LY. Despite a killer schedule with road trips to Ohio St & Pitt, pulling the top 2 teams out of the Atlantic (FSU & Clem) plus having to face 3 potentia Top 25 teams in the Coastal, I give Miami a solid shot at the ACC Title.