Miami v. North Carolina : The Preview

The craziest headline this week has to be “Miami winless at North Carolina”. Seems hard to fathom there’s a stadium in the country where the Canes haven’t gotten a win.

That said, UM has only trekked to Chapel Hill on three occasions; way back in 1963 – two decades before the Canes were even relevant – and twice since joining the ACC. Miami rolled in No. 3 back in 2004 and lost 31-28 on a last-second field goal. Two years back an 27-0 halftime deficit was too much to overcome in a 33-27 loss.

Even more of a sting, last year’s 28-24 loss after sitting on a 24-14 early fourth quarter lead. Butch Davis is now 2-0 against Miami. The Canes are 2-3 against the Heels after five seasons in the ACC.

I discussed the match up earlier this week at the Raycom Sports Miami Blog, where I’ve been chiming in all season. I went into match ups and breakdowns a bit, for those interested.

A day before the game, feeling a little bit more rah-rah and bleeding heart; something I haven’t felt much these past few seasons. Miami is No. 12 and 7-2 with three to play. The brutal portion of the schedule is in the rearview, though the final three are no slouches. Entering Chapel Hill, there are reasons to feel good.

If you believe at all in the football gods, there’s a sense the stars are aligning for Miami. Duke looked mortal last week in a 13-9 loss to North Carolina, while the Heels didn’t look all that solid against the Blue Devils. For the Canes, both represent their next two foes.

A few days later, Rutgers beats down and shuts out South Florida, 31-0. The Canes get the Bulls in the season finale.

None of this should take away anything from the one-at-a-time mentality Miami has employed all season – but for fans, a reason to believe. 10-2 is a reality, as is an outside shot at a BCS at-large bid.

The odds of Duke upsetting Georgia Tech are slim, but as I watch film of the Canes/Yellow Jackets from a few months back, anything can happen on Saturday.

Should Georgia Tech take care of business, hopefully the BCS folk pop in a copy of the September 17th beat down at Land Shark: Hurricanes 33, Yellow Jackets 17… and it could’ve been a whole lot worse.

When healthy, Miami looked like it could hang with just about anybody. Ran into a buzzsaw and suffered a heartbreak along the way, but the Canes have continued to hold their own – even when banged up.

North Carolina will come to play on Saturday. Davis is playing up Miami as the be all/end all in college football right now, but don’t be fooled – he knows his team can win. The Heels are a stout defensive bunch with solid fundamentals; a Davis staple. Their front seven will come after Jacory Harris all day, meaning the offensive line must show up like they did against Oklahoma.

The big-bodied Javarris James and shifty Graig Cooper need to be difference makers. Wear down North Carolina with Lee Chambers and Damien Berry, as well. The Canes finally have a few key ingredients missing from past match ups with the Heels – most namely, big time running backs and a capable quarterback.

Throw offensive coordinator into that mix as well as it’ll be Mark Whipple going up against Davis and his defensive staff. The play-not-to-lose Patrick Nix era is officially over.

Nine games into this season, everyone should have a feel for where this team is at. Whether you get there through logic, emotion, elation or frustration, everyone has a feel.

Rewatching Georgia Tech this week and some of the Oklahoma game last week, it served as a solid reminder as to where this team is headed. At 7-2, Miami is truly a few players and an ounce of experience away from 9-0. This isn’t the year, but the Canes are definitely on the brink of greatness.

The 2010 season truly begins now. In 1999 you saw Ken Dorsey saddle up as a freshman, beating three Big East nobodies as the season closed out, leading to a Gator Bowl victory and setting the stage for 2000.

Miami sputtered down the stretch the past four seasons, but you get a sense that can change with this current bunch. There’s seems to be a will to win and a different overall mindset.

Against Virginia last week, talk of a revenge-fueled bunch wanting some redemption from a 48-0 shellacking in the Orange Bowl finale. The result – a 52-17 pasting of the Cavaliers.

The talk this week revolves around 0-3; Miami’s record in Chapel Hill. Whether that’s faux motivation or not, it’s giving this team something to rally around. Combine that with last season’s fourth quarter collapse and these Canes are playing with a purpose.

This was week two of lighter practices for Miami. Fresh bodies and sharp minds are the new MO at The U. Keep kids healthy, rest up and come to play Saturday. It worked last week and the Canes welcome back some fresh faces from the MASH unit sideline; most notably, senior defensive lineman Eric Moncur. DeMarcus Van Dyke is also expected back, while Ray Ray Armstrong, Pat Hill, Sean Spence and JoJo Nicolas are still out.

The Canes are far from healthy, but if a few veterans can return each week, it’ll help Miami as a collective unit and could be the difference-maker in a close game.

Former Tar Heels assistant John Lovett is handling defensive coordinator duties for Miami, which also plays into the ‘football gods’ thing – should you buy into that. Lovett knows the Heels and their tendencies and safe to say he’ll be ready for his return home.

The erratic T.J. Yates is behind center for North Carolina, which on paper plays into the Canes’ hands. The Heels are banged up at running back, as well – theoretically making this offense one-dimensional. Combine that with Lovett’s know-how and Miami’s defense should have a sizeable advantage over North Carolina’s.

On offense, look no further than Miami’s offensive line as the gamemaker or gamebreaker. Harris and the running game will be as efficient as the line. With protection, it could be a long day for the Tar Heels’ defense; even with all their talent.

Davis and his Heels have had the Canes’ number the past two seasons, but this is a different Miami monster. A road game is no easy feat, but UM has hung tough with UNC the past two years, even in losses. This year, Miami has enough to get over the hump and to 8-2. Canes are due.

The Call: Miami 27, North Carolina 19

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