Miami v. Duke : The Preview

Here comes the Miami v. Duke preview. Hardly as exciting as some past match ups earlier this season, but at 7-3 every game counts… and don’t think for a minute the Blue Devils won’t come to play.

Par for the course, another underlying theme. Last week it was former Miami coach Butch Davis. This weekend, the return of homegrown quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, passed on by Miami in the Larry Coker era and the signal caller for Duke the past four seasons.

Manny Navarro sheds some great light on the Lewis situation in his blog earlier this week.

Lewis grew up playing at the Northwest Boys and Girls Club in Miami, where he befriended current Canes quarterback Jacory Harris. Despite a couple years age difference, the two became fast friends.

The Duke senior was a two-time All-Dade selection at Hialeah-Miami Lakes High, yet Miami coaches continued to overlook him during recruiting season in 2005. Members of the Canes staff showed up once to check out Lewis’ game, but never followed up.

Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman were young and on the roster, so quarterback wasn’t a glaring weakness. Coker and staff decided to go with Daniel Stegall instead… who promptly spurned UM for a MLB career. He’s currently in the Mets minor league system. Stegall never stepped foot on Miami’s campus.

For those interested, Lewis has amassed 9,375 career yards, 63 touchdowns and 38 interceptions. According to Manny’s homework, the only UM quarterback to have better overall numbers is Ken Dorsey.

Who knows what Lewis would’ve done these past few years had he would up in Coral Gables. Safe bet it wouldn’t have been any worse than Wright or Freeman, though. Then again, had Lewis gotten on board, would Harris have signed on two years back? Another reason it’s impossible to play the ‘what if’ game.

Regardless, Lewis will be ready for the Canes and his homecoming, as he has been the past three years when Miami was on the other side of the ball.

As a freshman in 2006, Lewis threw four interceptions against a depleted Miami squad (suspensions for the FIU brawl). 21 of 40 for 284 yards and one touchdown in the 20-15 Canes win.

241 yards and two touchdowns in 2007 when Miami needed a late defensive stand to pull out the 24-14 win. 130 yards and two touchdowns last year in a 49-31 loss where Harris actually stole the show as a true freshman. After Robert Marve faltered in the first half, Harris turned a 17-14 halftime deficit into a 185 yard, four-touchdown performance and a 49-31 victory.

On the heels of a 33-24 loss at North Carolina last week, Miami is definitely in must-win mode regarding these final two games. A bowl game is secure, but regarding the expectations of this fan base, people want wins. Especially after a 6-1 start. The Canes are 2-2 in their last four games and simply put, everyone is sick of these recent November collapses.

In Miami’s defense, losses to Clemson and North Carolina were as unorthodox as you’re going to see. Special teams gaffes and a pick six in an overtime shootout with the Tigers. Two pick sixes and a wild lateral en route to a loss in Chapel Hill. The Canes battled to the end in both contests, but success-starved fans will point to the scoreboard and remember nothing but the loss.

Also lost in the shuffle, the fact this is a rebuilding year and that many were clamoring for a 9-3 or 8-4 season for 2009 to be considered a success. Based on the schedule, some were screaming for 5-7 or 4-8, yet sitting at 7-3 with two to play, the year is still considered a disappointment.

Duke will bring a one-dimensional game plan to Miami this weekend. Lewis and the passing game can fire on all cylinders, but the Blue Devils are dead in the water regarding their running game. The passing offense ranks ninth nationally, while the rushing offense is in the triple digits.

Miami hopes to get Ray Ray Armstrong and Sean Spence back before the weekend, but Sam Shields and the versatile Thearon Collier are the latest casualties in arguably the most injury-ridden season in recent memory. Vaughn Telemaque is a game time decision, having banged up the shoulder which sidelined him last season.

A few return and a few more go down. Welcome to Miami Hurricanes football 2009. Close, but not quite there. Strong, but not deep enough to absorb this many losses. Two more years, whether you want to hear that or not, Johnny Superfan.

The Canes should have enough offensively to wear down the Blue Devils’ defense. Defensively, if Miami defends the pass and sells out on the run, it should keep Duke contained. Lewis should have a good day, but not enough to amass the 31 points Miami is averaging a game right now.

8-3 is doable, setting up a big time match up against a hungry South Florida next weekend. A 9-3 season is within reach, as is a quality bowl game.

It might not be the scenario many were hoping for at 6-1, but based on the past three seasons and where expectations were before the season opener (anyone remember those 0-4 predictions), this is still a damn fine season in the making. 2010 is when many had their calendars circled for Miami’s resurgence and the Canes are still on track for that comeback.

Many are comparing 2009 to 1999, a year before Miami made its run. The ’99 season ended 9-4 and ’09 could wind up the same way or better. Three games remain this season. Keep the faith and remember, we just passed halftime regarding this five-year rebuild.

The Call: Miami 31, Duke 21

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