‘U’ PREVIEW: MIAMI HURRICANES TAKE ON FLORIDA GATORS IN ‘THE SWAMP’

247 days after a hamstrung Miami Hurricanes squad lost a third-tier bowl game at a baseball stadium in the Bronx, Mario Cristobal and “The U” are set to open the 2024 season with a road trip to ‘The Swamp’ and a heated showdown with the Florida Gators.

On the other sideline Billy Napier also enters his third season in Gainesville, coming off  two sub-par seasons and a combined 11-14 record—while Cristobal hasn’t fared much better with a 12-13 start at his alma mater.

Of course the unwritten story of these two head coaches will ultimately be defined by off-season moves made and how that translates to wins and losses this fall; each with a second full recruiting class, another transfer portal haul and the addition-by-subtraction roster turnover that comes from sending off-brand players packing, making room for new ballers who buy-in.

MIAMI LOATHES ‘THE TEAM FROM UP NORTH’

Some quick history between these two Sunshine State powers who first tussled back in 1938 and are preparing for their 57th-ever meeting. Miami and Florida continue despising each other despite not playing annually since 1987—the Gators bowing out of the rivalry after joining the SEC; the two programs only meeting seven times in almost four decades.

The 2001 Sugar Bowl was a battle royale between two top ten squads in the postseason—#2 Miami screwed out of a title-game shot against #1 Oklahoma; the Canes taking out their frustration on #7 Florida, 37-20.

#2 Miami was also on the right side of a home-and-away; rolling into Gainesville as defending national champs in 2002 and smacking around #6 Florida, 41-16.

A year later, a massive home comeback in the Orange Bowl for third-ranked Canes; trailing the eighteenth-ranked Gators, 33-10 late third quarter and rallying for a 38-33 win behind the arm of a former teammate, quarterback Brock Berlin.

Berlin got his old team one more time in the Peach Bowl; Miami rolling Florida, 27-10 behind some big special teams play and defense—recent NFL Hall of Fame inductee Devin Hester an assassin in both those games, as well.

The Gators got their first win over the Canes since 1987; an early-season showdown in Gainesville during their national championship run of 2008, pulling away late for the 26-3 victory.

Since then, a turnover-defined affair at HardRock back in 2013—Miami hanging on to win, 21-16—followed by a 2019 season opener, where Florida again coughed it up consistently, but a fumbled punt on the goal line was the day’s biggest gaffe and the Canes lost the inaugural game of the Manny Diaz era, 24-20.

Miami still leads the all-time rivalry 29-27—having won seven of the last nine match-ups—the Hurricanes also with five national titles (1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001) to the Gators’ three (1996, 2006 , 2008).

All the piling on Miami  for “ancient history” championships, Florida is now 16 years removed from the last time they brought home the hardware— both the Canes and Gators spending years trying to reconfigure paths-to-greatness with a revolving door of head coaches—which is why both Cristobal and Napier are feeling that pressure to deliver in year three.

Florida State laid an egg in their season opener against Georgia Tech, but fact remains that Mike Norvell turned a corner year-three in Tallahassee—a 10-3 run in 2022, followed by 13-1 last fall—and in a very competitive state, ‘The Big Three’ always look at the trajectory of hated rivals as a measuring stick; the Seminoles a few steps ahead last year, but still a decade removed from their last title and stuck at three overall (1993, 1999, 2013).

All that to say, the past is the past and the time is now as both squads spent the entire spring and summer preparing for Saturday’s showdown in Gainesville.

YESTERDAY’S MOVES MADE FOR TODAY

Regarding the aforementioned off-season moves, it’s hard to not give Miami the edge—Cristobal reeling in the seventh-best freshman class in 2023 and fourth-best last year, while Napier snagged the 13th-best group in back-to-back years—but portal moves and void-fillers are what really separate the two.

Miami won the Cam Ward sweepstakes in early January, weeks after the Washington State transfer quarterback had a change of heart regarding bolting to the NFL—citing “unfinished business” and wanting one more season in college to up his game, brand, image and stock.

“If you build it, they will come” feels apropos regarding the Hurricanes’ all-in approach to the 2024 season.

Ward was truly the tip of the iceberg that led to some big names who followed his pledge; Oregon State running back Damien Martinez, Houston wide receiver Sam Brown, Tennessee edge Tyler Baron, Washington edge Jayden Wayne and safety Mishael Powell, MTSU defensive lineman Marley Cook, Marshall edge Elijah Alston, Indiana center Zach Carpenter, North Carolina State defensive lineman C.J. Clark and Michigan State defensive tackle Simeon Barrow—massive additions while sending 28 off-brand former Canes packing.

Napier and Florida went portal-heavy, as well; some instant upgrades to defense that needed a boost, as well as top-flight receiver in Elijah Badger, who will be in action Saturday—but Miami’s leaps-and-bounds improvement at quarterback, wide receiver, running back, center and defensive line are poised to define the season—as is Cristobal’s continued focus on the trenches, which is where this game will ultimately be won.

The Hurricanes’ biggest struggles the past two decades has been average offensive and defensive line play and a who’s who at quarterback.

Even when Miami was an annual power, some special seasons went to hell in a handbag (1992 and 2002, notably) due to offensive line regression when championship teams the previous season saw its best up-front talent leaving for the NFL—resulting in some pretty good quarterbacks having some rough title game appearances.

Aside from being a former offensive lineman and two-time national champion with the Hurricanes (1989, 1991)—Cristobal also cut his teeth in Tuscaloosa for four years under Nick Saban, winning a natty—and more-importantly, learning the importance of building an SEC-caliber program and winning those trench battles.

With solid offensive line play a focus for Cristobal-led teams, establishing the run—and staying committed to it—is the focus for Miami as this new season gets underway.

RUN BALL, CONTROL CLOCK, WEAR ‘EM DOWN

Shannon Dawson is back at offensive coordinator and a disciple of the Air Raid offense, having worked under Dana Holgerson—who worked under the late, great Mike Leach—the temptation to fling the ball all around the yard will be there; but there needs to be a discipline and commitment to run if Miami is going to wear down and beat Florida.

The Gators gave up 5.1 yards-per-carry last season—117th in the nation—which saw Napier getting rid of co-defensive coordinator Sean Spencer and replacing him with Ron Roberts, while Austin Armstrong retained his co-coordinator duties and returns for a second season.

Stopping the Canes’ ground attack will be key for Florida, but do they have enough horses on the defensive line to go toe-to-toe with Miami’s offensive line—and if needing to bring in additional defensive help, does that give Ward the ability to take some shots at a Gators’ secondary that will have a lot of new talent at a position that was a weak link last season?

Dawson got away from the run at times last season; all right in a win over Texas A&M—Tyler Van Dyke chucking it around for 374 yards and four touchdowns—making the 77 yards on 24 carries moot in a 48-33 ballgame.

Conversely, there were other outings where Miami’s offense got away from consistently pounding the rock—a pass-happy offense where defenses didn’t have to respect the rushing attack; baiting Van Dyke, picking him off and stealing winnable games that the Hurricanes could’ve survived with a little bit more patience and process.

Miami game-managed their way to an overtime win over Clemson last fall–forced to commit to the run when true freshman quarterback Emory Williams replaced the injured Van Dyke; the Canes owning time of possession and going for 211 yards on 38 carries—which set Williams up to take some calculated shots when the Tigers let their guard down.

For this showdown Miami needs the discipline showed against Clemson, while letting Ward do some of what Van Dyke did against the Aggies when the shots were there to be taken.

CANES WITH DEEPEST D-LINE IN YEARS

Defensively, Miami returns coordinator Lance Guidry for a second season and his ability to scheme and get after the stoic Graham Mertz will also be a huge key to success for the Hurricanes.

Where Miami’s 2023 season fell apart courtesy of Van Dyke’s 12 untimely interceptions, Mertz played smart football and only threw three picks all fall.

The Hurricanes’ defensive line is one of the best in the nation entering the 2024 season; veteran players, portal pick-ups and a two-deep that will allow fresh bodies to wear down that Gators’ line all afternoon—will Guidry dial anything up to get after the second-year transfer quarterback—in a game that could again easily come down to ball-protection and turnovers?

While Miami has the edge in the trenches—offensive and defensive lines superior to Florida’s—both programs have unproven secondaries; where one breakdown in coverage or a blown assignment could also be the difference in a game that will be a hot and humid, heavily contested battle with little margin for error.

Whichever team holds it down better without flinching; a make-or-break moment with some green secondaries could prove pivotal.

Both programs underachieved last year and each head coach did all they could these off-season to better their squads, knowing that big step forward is a must in year three—and Miami fans can take some solace in the fact that the Hurricanes are now passing the eye test, which hasn’t been the case over this decade of disaster.

CALLING IT AS THEY SEE IT

CBS Sports analyst and The Late Kick host Josh Pate is respected as a straight-shooter—and for long-time fans of Miami, his take on the program feels eerily similar to the way Kirk Herbstreit was an early-adopter who predicted the Hurricanes’ resurgence in early 2000, just before the program pulled out of its probation-funk and went on a 34-game tear—hosed out of a title shot, winning the natty the following year and screwed out of a second ring in 2002, prematurely ending the win-streak.

Herby may be an Ohio State loyalist at heart—just as Pate is a Georgia guy—but in both cases, each puts their love of college football and their roles as analysts above any partisanship.

Three years ago it was Herbstreit calling out Miami’s top brass for not caring about football, which ultimately was the beginning of the end for Diaz—while Pate has been an early adopter on the Cristobal era, quick to point out the importance of the former Canes’ offensive lineman building culture, as well as needing to strip a broken program down to its studs for a complete rebuild.

A recent sit-down in Coral Gables after a tour of the football facilities, Pate mentioned recent treks to Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State—and how the athletes walking around Miami look like the guys walking around those other powerhouse programs—and while that doesn’t guarantee wins, it does guarantee that you need players that pass the eye test to even compete at the highest level, and after the Hurricanes not measuring up for years—they are “back” in that sense.

Something is brewing at “The U” but too many coaching changes, false starts or late fades has set up this believe-it-when-we-see-it attitude around the program—which is understandable in a sense, but at some point there will be payoff when the right moves are made and as off-brand guys are run off for a new crew that buys-in.

The Hurricanes spent a decade-plus known as “Quarterback U” and found ways to win four national titles–in a nine-year span—with four different signal callers.

When Miami was back a decade later, it was quarterback Ken Dorsey who was the conductor of that resurgence; a reminder that the Hurricanes are only as good as the guy throwing the ball—proven by an almost two-decade run of guys who simply didn’t measure up at the position, or at best lacked the offensive line, skills players and coordinators to set them up for success.

GAMECHANGER: EXIT TVD, ENTER C-WARD…

Cristobal and Dawson thought they had the guy in Van Dyke last year; primed for a comeback season after injury in 2022—but in hindsight, the magic shows in a few games freshman season never returned. Van Dyke was an introvert, a quiet kid and seemed to shun the role of ‘team leader’—wanting to let his play do the talking for him.

Last year’s 4-0 start and upset of Texas A&M went right out the window after a three-interception performance at home against Georgia Tech; Van Dyke visibly rattled, head down and a deer-in-headlights look that ultimately proved the kid was all right when the getting was good, but the moment adversity and doubt crept in, he was toast.

All that to say why there’s so much excitement around Ward entering the building; an alpha dog, a born leader and a confident kid who has remained unfazed his entire career.

ESPN will most-likely delve into the backstory on College GameDay, but the Lake Jackson, Texas-born quarterback got his start at Incarnate Word where he had an explosive 2020 season out of nowhere.

A year later a 47-touchdown, 10-interception season where he threw for 4,648 yards for the Cardinals—before transferring to Washington State for the next two years.

Running for his life in Pullman, Ward still found a way to throw for 3,094 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2022—taking Oregon and Utah to the wire, as well as upsetting Wisconsin on the road—and in 2023, a 438-yard clinic on the road against #Oregon, while throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns in the Apple Cup, #4 Washington surviving on a last-second field goal that helped propel them to the national title game.

The logical reaction of sports fans and pundits is to project based on what seem like logical narratives; in this case, a storyline that a quarterback from smaller programs will be overwhelmed and intimidated in his first start for Miami, against Florida at ‘The Swamp’.

Maybe for some, but don’t see that as the case for Ward—the kid just wired different and built for the big stage.

That doesn’t guarantee a flawless game—or even that he’ll lead Miami to victory—but the notion that the moment or venue will be too big for him is the opinion of the ill-informed, or those who are just looking a this portal pick-up on a surface level.

Ward rolls into this season-opener for Miami at 22 years old and a fifth-year college quarterback; the same age as top-draft pick Caleb Williams, who will take the field for the Chicago Bears this fall—Ward with 48 starts under his belt and a journey that took him from Central Texas, to East Washington and now to South Florida over a five-year span.

Those who have been around Ward know he’s “that dude”—that his attitude will set the tone for Miami in Gainesville this weekend and that his teammates will go as he goes—just as the Hurricanes saw from a losing perspective last year when Van Dyke was leading them into battle.

All signs point to Saturday’s showdown being both Ward’s and Miami’s coming-out party.

TODAY’S ‘SWAMP’ AIN’T YESTERDAY’S X-FACTOR

The pundits are all talking up ‘The Swamp’—which is a hell of an environment—but conveniently leave out that Napier is 9-4 at home these past two years and seven of those wins came against McNeese State, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, South Florida, Eastern Washington, Missouri and South Carolina.

Florida got the 2022 opener against #7 Utah when Cameron Rising threw an end zone interception with :17 remaining—as well as downing #11 Tennessee last fall—quality wins, but the Napier era at home a far cry from what Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer did to ensure dominance at home.

This is Miami’s game to lose—and not give away—hitting the ground running, not giving it away late and (hopefully) sitting on a little double-digit lead before Tom Petty blares over the PA system to start the fourth quarter.

In reality it’s anybody’s game—and as it goes in Sunshine State rivalries between The Big Three; throw history and record books out the window when any combination of Miami, Florida and Florida State tee it up.

Still, those favoring the Gators seems to be doing so based on home field advantage and a strong SEC brand as the difference-maker—while pointing to decades of Miami’s incompetence and no-showing in big moments, which the Hurricanes have to own.

All that to say, in this new-look version of college football—where seasons are made by way of get-after-it recruits and transfer portal dominance—Ward’s moxie will be the x-factor, as last year’s Hurricanes know this year’s role and off-season additions understand the assignment.

Win the trench battles, run the football, take shots when they’re there, get after Mertz, protect the football and erase home field by taking care of business across the board.

Easier said than done, but in the end “it’s all about the W”—which stands for “win” and “Ward”—Miami fielding one of the biggest game-changers college football is going to see this fall, which will allow the Hurricanes the elusive breakthrough this program has chased for decades.

Miami’s transfer quarterback is the difference maker and the Canes tame ‘The Swamp’ on Saturday afternoon.

The Prediction: Miami 31, Florida 20

Christian Bello has been covering University of Miami athletics since the mid-nineties. Getting his start with CanesTime, he eventually launched allCanesBlog—which led to a featured columnist stint with BleacherReport. He’s since rolled out the unfiltered, ItsAUThing.com where he’ll use his spare time to put decades of U-related knowledge to use for those who care to read. When he’s not writing about ‘The U’, Bello is a storyteller for some exciting brands and individuals—as well as a guitarist and songwriter for his Miami-bred band Company Jones, who released their debut album “The Glow” in 2021. Hit him on Twitter for all things U-related @ItsAUThingBLOG.

Comments

comments