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The Miami Hurricanes are 3-0 on the season, with wins over Bethune-Cookman, Florida Atlantic and Nebraska. After an off-week, the Canes got an extra couple days rest to prep for this Thursday night road trip.

The Cincinnati Bearcats played last Thursday night and lost their starting quarterback Gunner Kiel in the process; as well as the game—giving up 53 points and 570 yards the Memphis Tigers. The lone upside? A 752-yard, 46-point effort in a loss, where a back-up quarterback shone brightly.

Miami is looking to avoid a trap game with Florida State on deck, while Cincinnati needs to figure out life after Kiel (for now) and to avoid a third loss in five games.

WHEN WE LAST SAW THESE TWO

Miami hosted Cincinnati at Sun Life Stadium last fall in what wound up a, 55-34 Hurricanes victory—capped up with a Bearcats fumble-return for seven in the waning moments.

The Canes had 621 yards to the Bearcats’ 422 and won the turnover battle 3-to-1, though Cincy held the ball longer (31:14 to 28:46) and had 355 passing yards to Miami’s 286.

Conversely, the Canes dominated on the ground—rushing for 335 yards to the Bearcats’ 67.

Brad Kaaya was an effective 17-of-24 for 286 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers in the win, while the Bearcats relied on Kiel to throw 57 times—where he completed 31 passes for 355 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Duke Johnson led the charge on the ground, carrying 10 times for 162 yards and a score, but Joe Yearby wasn’t far behind with eight carries for 113 yards. The Canes also relied on Gus Edwards, who had 11 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown.

THIS YEAR’S SUBPLOTS

For Miami it’s being labeled as one of those proverbial “trap” games; after a bye week and on the heels of a win over Nebraska, while also nestled nine days before a road trip to Tallahassee to take on Florida State; who the Hurricanes haven’t beaten since 2009.

Miami can’t afford a loss prior to taking on the Seminoles and getting into the meat of the ACC schedule; Virginia Tech (10/17), Clemson (10/24) and at Duke (10/31). A loss to Florida State derailed the Canes’ season last year. Conversely, it can jumpstart things this year—but it will most-likely take a 4-0 start to the year and a stay-on-track type of win against the Bearcats.

Regarding Cincinnati, less is at stake—having already lost to Temple and at Memphis—which also means less pressure to deliver. With Kiel out, redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be under center. Moore had seen early second-string action this year, but was 31-of-53 for 557 yards, with four touchdowns and two interceptions in last Thursday’s loss to the Tigers.

For Cincinnati to compete for an American Athletic Conference title this year it needs to solve it’s quarterback dilemma, while looking for a moral victory against Miami; if not the upset.

KEYS TO THE GAME : MIAMI

Kaaya and his bevy of receivers need a big showing against a weak Cincinnati secondary. In a lot of cases the game plan is to pound the ball and set up the pass. This time around it’s the aerial attack that needs to be firing from the get-go.

The Canes need another fast start; especially on the road in front of a fired up Thursday night primetime crowd. Kaaya is the key to that—spreading the ball around like he did early against Nebraska. The Canes were quickly up 14-0 against the Huskers, with the sophomore quarterback hitting four different receivers in the process.

Miami has to force early turnovers to get inside Cincinnati’s head. The Bearcats rank dead-last nationally regarding turnover margin; having coughed it up 14 times in four games. Conversely, Miami ranks second nationally at plus-2.67 per game.

The kiss of death in many Thursday night games; a road favorite letting the home team hang around way too late in the contest. That seems to be where the magic happens. For the Canes, it’s all about this defense rattling Moore.

The redshirt-freshman lit up a garbage Memphis defense and helped rally Cincinnati to a win over Miami (OH) weeks back; despite his four fourth quarter turnovers. For the Canes, making Moore look all the part of a back-up quarterback is a must.

Whether up, down, blowing them out or caught in a nailbiter—Miami needs to close strong. Folks can downplay the final nine minutes of the Nebraska win with talk of letting up, losing two members of the secondary to targeting, or some general waking-up by the Huskers’ offense.

Whatever the case, the numbers don’t lie and Miami’s 33-10 lead evaporated, with Nebraska rattling off 23 unanswered. It was reminiscent of a blown 23-10 halftime lead over Florida State last year, expect in the waning moments the Canes were one-play better this time around.

Miami needs a foot-on-the-throat type of game here with the Seminoles looming. Not in some run-it-up manner, but more along the lines of playing smart, clean, disciplined football down the stretch.

Thinking back to those final few drives against the Huskers; the targeting calls, the sidelines issues with the coaching staff, the boneheadedness that turned a late 4th-and-2 into 4th-and-22 within seconds.

A lot of that gets lost in the wake of a win, but that type of sloppiness has to be cleaned up before the schedule gets dicey in October. No better time to fix those mistakes than Thursday night.

KEYS TO THE GAME : CINCINNATI

Rattle Kaaya. Force turnovers. Get Miami in a grind-it-out battle where the Canes are forced to slow the game down with long, sustained drives. From there the Bearcats can hope for some red zone stalls and special teams gaffes.

What Cincy can’t do; get into a shootout with the Canes. This is Miami; not Memphis. As maligned as UM fans feel the defense is, it’s light years ahead of anything the Bearcats have faced this year.

Law of averages; Miami will get more stops than Cincinnati so the Bearcats better slow down that Canes’ offense and the best to do it; fluster Kaaya.

Take some heat off of Moore by getting something out of Mike Boone on the ground. Boone is averaging 9.6 yards-per-carry and has three touchdowns on the year. If Boone is still dealing with a nagging ankle injury, then it’s on Tion Greene and Hosey Williams.

Either way, the Bearcats are going to run the ball against Miami. Without that, the Canes’ defense will pin its ears back and come after Moore all night. A one-dimensional offense out of Cincy isn’t going to top Miami.

Take advantage of the Canes’ first-half secondary woes. With safeties Deon Bush and Jamal Carter forced to sit the first half due to targeting ejections against Nebraska, expect Shaq Washington and Max Morrison to see some action early.

Miami dodges a bullet here as wideouts Johnny Holton, Chris Moore and Mekale McKay are all suffering from various bumps and bruises; helping negate the early losses of Bush and Carter.

Still, Washington and Morrison have more experience than Miami’s second-string secondary and if the Bearcats are going to get something out of their passing attack—best-suited to go deep with Bush and Carter out.

THE PREDICTION

A few things stick out here. Outside of the standard Thursday night ESPN prime time quirkiness that seems to derail teams every season, Cincinnati is arguably a 4-0 team right now if the turnover margin isn’t bottom of the barrel.

The two-loss start to the season will either crush the Bearcats, or this is a turning-point game for them to jumpstart the season; mistakes cleaned up and Cincy showing up prepared and ready to go.

For Miami, it’s less about the opponent and more about taking care of it’s own business. This coaching staff is big on telling kids to “ignore the noise” and whatnot; there’s a lot to block out this week.

Shaking off the final quarter against Nebraska. Ignoring chatter about Florida State being on deck. A rowdy crowd at Nippert Stadium, who will be treating this showdown like a national title game. Not to mention all the general static that surrounds this program, this coaching staff and a team that went 6-7 last year.

Miami wins this one by two touchdowns, though the *how* remains up in the air. Do the Canes lay it down early and roll to victory, are they in a dog fight, or do they falter late and give up a few cheap scores?

A lot of x-factors going into Thursday night after a 12-day layoff. Miami’s offense will outshine Cincinnati’s and both teams will score. The Canes will simply get a few more stops than the Bearcats when it counts—though it will probably be a more spirited game than U fans are looking for in between Nebraska and Florida State.

Miami 44, Cincinnati 31

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