Miami v. Nebraska : Random Gameday Thoughts

Hours from kickoff while the first batch of games are being played today, all orange and green thought are on the showdown between the Miami Hurricanes and Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight. Some initial thoughts to bide the time between now and kickoff:

As the day rolls on, the magnitude of this game looms bigger and bigger for the Miami program. For those who watched ESPN’s College GameDay this morning—snide remarks from all talking heads, predictions of a big Nebraska win and an on-screen graphic reading, “Candy Canes” with some super-ugly stats.

UM is now 1-15 in its last sixteen road games against ranked teams—it’s last win coming in 2009 at Florida State. Miami is averaging 14.7 points-per-game over that span, have lost ten games by three touchdowns or more and have had only four single-digit losses.

Al Golden was at the helm three of those five-plus years and while all the problems aren’t on his watch, enough have been. Too many big-stage losses over the years. Something has to give.

Win tonight and the Hurricanes’ staff buys itself some breathing room. Lose, and the heat gets (understandably) ratcheted up yet another notch.

Brad Kaaya won’t win this game himself and if he loses it, safe bet that play calling and offensive line woes will be the culprit. Looking back at the Louisville game, Miami coaches were conservative, while the Canes’ line was abysmal.

Penalties negated some big plays, while coaches inexplicably forced the run when the Cards’ defense stacked nine in the box.

Have to believe that three games in, Miami coaches have a specific game plan for Nebraska—putting Kaaya in position to make plays. Conversely, the Hurricanes’ offensive line needs to get the true freshman time to go through his progressions and make the throws.

While it was only Arkansas State last week, Kaaya showed what he’s capable of if he has time. Can this offensive line help him out? What about his receivers?

This game will be won the ground—for both teams. If senior Ameer Abdullah has his way with the Hurricanes’ defense, it’ll be a long night. Conversely, Miami’s ground attack needs to finally get something going—which will be a feat against a Nebraska defensive line that returns defensive end Randy Gregory from arthroscopic knee surgery.

For Miami, Duke Johnson hasn’t been ineffective since his return, but hasn’t been himself—mostly due to porous offensive line play, as well as back-to-back mini-blowouts that sent him to the bench early.

Let is be known—Johnson will get nowhere tonight if line play isn’t greatly improve and if the passing attack is non-existent. Nebraska will dare Miami to throw and will focus solely on the run until the aerial attack is humming.

Outside of ‘The Duke’, the Hurricanes need some tough running out of Gus Edwards tonight. The bigger-bodied back needs to pound away at that Huskers’ front seven and open the door for Johnson to dazzle.

It’s going to take a solid effort from a handful of Miami running backs tonight. Someone has to step up and break off something impressive early to set a tone. 70 yards at Louisville certainly didn’t cut it and even in wins over Florida A&M and Arkansas State, a good-not-great ground attack.

Johnson hasn’t had a huge outing since Wake Forest last October. The Canes need his best tonight. Same with Edwards and Joe Yearby.

Some talk this fall about more passes to running backs, but haven’t seen too much on that front early on. Have coaches held back the past two games and do the have something up their sleeve tonight?

Johnson does have three receptions for 25 yards three games in, compared to four total receptions in eight games last season—so change is in the air. Still, in 2012, Johnson reeled in 27 receptions for 221 yards when Jedd Fisch was calling the plays.

Getting the ball in the hands of playmakers is key and a great way to help a young quarterback on the road in a big game—dump offs to running backs who can get downfield quick.

Need to see more passes to running backs tonight. Period.

All eyes will be on Phillip Dorsett after a huge outing last week—highlighted by two 63-yard touchdowns. Knowing that, how will offensive coordinator James Coley get Dorsett some looks this week and who is ready to step up behind him?

Stacy Coley is back in the mix and Herb Waters is due for a breakout. Kaaya and Waters hooked-up in garbage time against the Cardinals and need to reconnect tonight. Tight end Clive Walford also needs to bring some veteran leadership to the table.

Gimmicky plays and reverses aren’t necessarily the answers here—nor is the played out, hit-a-speedster-in-the-flats-hope-he-makes-a-move. Curious to see Coley’s game plan.

Side note, yes it was Fisch calling plays back in 2012, but keep thinking back to that quick strike out the gates from Stephen Morris to Dorsett at Notre Dame and the two huge drops on that opening drive.

Would love to see the Canes showing those type of stones early in this game, opposed to the slow build. Utilize that speed and take an early shot.

Reminiscing on that Louisville loss—three red zone opportunities and Miami only walked away with three points. Wasted opportunities were the name of the game against the Cardinals.

Can’t be the case tonight. Have to, have to, have to capitalize. Back already against the wall with another tough September road trip. It’s going to take solid execution and some breaks for this one to go the Canes’ way.

Miami’s defense has hung tough early this season. Effective in back-to-back match-ups against lesser foes and even in that loss to Louisville, held the Cardinals in check until fourth quarter, forced turnovers, came to play, etc.

Will take a yeoman’s effort from the Canes’ defense tonight, attempting to slow down Abdullah and sophomore quarterback Tommy Armstrong.

Can that front seven bring heat against a solid Huskers’ offensive line? Will the secondary take a step forward and clean up some sloppy play? Does Miami have a few forced turnovers in its bag of tricks? No room for any defensive lapses tonight.

Finally, special teams needs to be special. Gave up the kick return for a touchdown at Louisville and regarding the return game, Miami hasn’t seen any magic thus far.

Coley, Dorsett, Braxton Berrios, Artie Burns—somebody has to do something. Too much speed and talent back there for the Hurricanes not to get it going.

The Huskers have more talent in the trenches, but Miami boasts the better skills players and they need to shine under the lights tonight.

Picked the Hurricanes over the Huskers, 27-24 in Friday’s game preview. Not overly confident in that pick, for those who have tweeted and asked.

That said, giving Miami the benefit of the doubt based on the offensive play calling last week, the improved defensive play three games in and the fact that Nebraska hasn’t played a quality opponent to date (Florida Atlantic, McNeese State and Fresno State).

The Huskers could prove to be a power as the year rolls on, but to date have pounded two nobodies and struggled mightily to contain a pretty good FBS team. If McNeese State could hang, on paper, so can Miami.

A night game at Memorial Stadium is no joke. Crowd will be frenzied and the Huskers that showed up for the Cowboys certainly won’t be the unit that is in the mix for the Canes tonight. Still, if Miami plays its game, it has a shot.

If not, all benefit of the doubt is gone moving forward. As mentioned via Twitter today, a close loss is tolerable barring the Hurricanes come to play. Another main stage blowout and … let’s not go there until or unless it happens. Positive thoughts. Good things.

Four hours ’til kickoff. Go Canes.

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