Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl Notes

On paper it sounds like a hell of a match-up between two solid programs. Instead, a battle of the underachievers when the Miami Hurricanes and South Carolina Gamecocks go at it Saturday December 27th in the Independence Bowl.

Both programs are currently licking some wounds and will have to muster up some faux excitement after identical six-loss seasons and some downright ugly and disappointing football as the Canes and Cocks had higher expectations for 2014.

Miami rolls into the post-season riding a three-game losing streak—up on Florida State at the half, trumped in the final minutes and the soul sucked right out of the the Hurricanes’ program.

Back-to-back losses to sub-par opponents in Virginia and Pittsburgh followed, bringing morale to an all-time low in the Al Golden era—the noise getting even louder after a recent premier of “The U Part 2”, where Miami’s late nineties resurgence was highlighted and former head coach Butch Davis looked all the part of a hero for guiding the Hurricanes through the muck and mire of an NCAA investigation and sanctions.

For South Carolina. an topsy-turvy season that started ugly as a Johnny Manziel-less Texas A&M squad hung 52 points on the Gamecocks, exposing glaring defensive woes.

From there, wins over East Carolina, Georgia and Vanderbilt seemed to right the ship, but the Gamecocks dropped four of their next five, earned two of their six wins over Furman and South Alabama and got thumped by in-state rival Clemson for the season finale.

Theoretically this should be a shootout as both teams boast high-octane offenses as well as defenses that leave a lot to be desired.

For Miami, a the trend of settling for field goals (only 22 touchdowns in 43 red zone opportunities) or walking away empty-handed isn’t going to fly against South Carolina. Gamecocks’ quarterback Dylan Thompson led the SEC with 3,280 passing yards on the season, while running backs Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds are a proven handful.

There are obviously more layers to what South Carolina brings to the table offensively, but this game is less about what the Hurricanes defense can do to the Gamecocks offense and everything to do with Miami’s offensive firepower, sustained drives and finding the end zone opposed to settling on field goals.

To that point, the Gamecocks should have their hands full with both the Hurricanes’ ground and aerial assault. Brad Kaaya has some healthy weapons at his disposal by way of Phillip Dorsett, Stacy Coley, Braxton Berrios and tight end Standish Dobard, who will be replacing injured senior Clive Walford, who suffered an MCL injury in the home finale.

In the backfield, Duke Johnson will suit for most-likely his last game at “The U”, while Joe Yearby and Gus Edwards will get their carries, too.

Offensively, it’s all about Miami keeping the chains moving and establishing a run that opens up the passing game. Such has been the case all year and when it works, the Hurricanes find success.

When it doesn’t, a lot of three-and-out situations, as well as getting worked in time of possession, keeping a struggling Miami defense on the field to get picked apart.

The numbers don’t lie. Miami’s offense was 8-of-18 on third down in the loss to Pittsburgh and 7-of-17 at Virginia, where the Cavaliers held the ball for 35:56. A week later, the Panthers’ offense was on the field for 32:01.

The Hurricanes’ defense held its own early against the Seminoles, taking a 23-10 lead into the locker room, before eventually falling, 30-26.

Since then, Miami’s biggest issue has been uninspired football and never shaking off a season-defining loss, where the program went all-in, failed and has gone through the motions since. Coaches began erring back towards earlier, conservative ways, while players have gone into a shell, coming off dazed and emotionally checked-out.

That said, players have been talking the talk the past few weeks—starting with that recent airing of the latest Canes-themed 30 For 30. Kaaya was quoted as saying current players made it clear they want to be “Part 3” and made it clear he came to South Florida to win titles, not for the nightlife.

“The U Part 2” obviously had an impact on these current players, but can a full-blown attitude adjustment take place during those four weeks between a season finale and mid-tier bowl game?

That and some other questions Miami must answer Saturday as it (sadly) looks to secure a winning season:

What will the Canes’ offensive identity be against the Gamecocks and how will they keep drives sustained? A good case study for Miami this year was a late-September win over Duke.

Despite amassing 426 total yards, rushing for 206 and a 223-yard, interception-free evening from Kaaya, the Canes only scored 22 points—including a miracle 4th-and-19 touchdown pass to Herb Waters in the driving rain.

Late in the game Miami was uber-consertative, nursing a lead and content to run-run-run and punt, despite the Blue Devils stacking the box.

Other times the run was unstoppable and the Canes would attempt passes that weren’t there, setting up third-and-long situations, taking the once-effecitve run away. (UM is 98th in the nation, only covering 36-percent of the time on third down.)

To Miami’s credit, it held Duke to a season-low 10 points on the day but without that, a solid offensive outing could’ve easily resulted in a loss due to an inability to convert and execute.

In short, that cannot be the case against a potent South Carolina offense that will get theirs. The Canes’ best defense is to keep its offense on the field and that works by having a game plan and identity, sticking to it and keeping the chains moving.

Kaaya is still green and the Gamecocks will come after him. Have to establish a run early and to force South Carolina to respect the ground attack.

Miami is outscoring opponents 111-49 in the first quarter and 223-133 in the first half. Good news in that the Canes are a quick-start bunch, but with six losses on the season, proof this bunch fades down the stretch. Conversely, opponents are outscoring Miami, 97-58 in the fourth quarter this season.

On the other sideline, South Carolina is 0-3 when trailing at halftime. If there’s any game this season where getting an early lead could matter most, it’s this one.

Curious to see how Walford’s recent knee inure effects Miami’s outbound talent like Johnson, Dorsett and Denzel Perryman, all who play high-octane and full-throttle. Fact remains this is a “meaningless” bowl game and all three need to strut their stuff at the upcoming NFL Combine.

While the risk of injury is there every time these kids take a snap, sitting at 6-6 and playing a game for pride-sake, late-December in Louisiana—it’s night a day from Willis McGahee keeping those legs churning for extra yards, down a field goal in the fourth quarter of the national championship.

What speed will Miami’s NFL-bound players go at how much does a game like the mean to them? Sad as it sounds, riding a three-game losing streak it wouldn’t be surprised if many have already checked out and are thinking about the Combine.

When asked about potential injury by Matt Porter of the Palm Beach Post, Johnson replied, “I broke my ankle last year. I’m not really concerned about getting hurt anymore. It’s part of the game. I play the way I play.”

Here’s hoping for Miami’s sake that is truly the case come Saturday in cold, rainy Shreveport.

It’s been a tale of two offensive lines for the Hurricanes this season. Will Art Kehoe have his bunch ready? A lot of reshuffling and some injuries over there, with Miami playing all-world at times, while also no-showing (still hard to forget that performance at Nebraska.)

The Canes hope to get freshman Nick Linder back, who’s been a pleasant surprise this season, but will remain without Taylor Gadbois and KC McDermott, who were lost months back.

Shane McDermott, Jon Feliciano and (most-likely) Ereck Flowers will be playing their final games with Miami, so for the veterans, one last shot to go out with a bang and a lot to prove after such erratic play at times this season.

Could this be the game where special teams specialist Stacy Coley finally breaks out of his season-long slump? If so, might be less about the Canes (who have also struggled) an more about the Gamecocks, who boast one of the worst special teams units in the nation.

Bowl games always seem to get a spark from somewhere—a trick play, a blocked kick, a pick-six, etc. For Miami, nothing would bode better than a Coley return, as No. 3 has been starved for a big-play moment, while the team needs to snap out of a ten-quarter funk.

Lastly, while there’s ultimately little difference between 7-6 or 6-7, as well as the fact a win will do little to quiet the masses, from an entering-the-off-season standpoint, Miami needs this victory.

Shocking as it may seem, the Hurricanes haven’t won a bowl game since the end of the 2006—topping Nevada in the Blue Turf Bowl, wrapping the season 7-6 and sending Larry Coker on his way, kicking off four years of the Randy Shannon era.

During that time the Canes didn’t qualify for a bowl (2007), lost to Cal (2008), lost to Wisconsin (2009) and lost to Notre Dame (2010), weeks after Shannon was fired.

Golden’s Canes got ahead of the NCAA sanctions, self-imposing bowl bans in 2011 and 2012, before finally earning a post-season berth, only to get thumped buy Louisville last year, 36-9.

It’s become too easy to write-off bowl games of this nature, acting like they don’t matter and have zero impact, but fact remains there oft is a bit of a bowl hangover when a team loses, while psychologically a program can build on and sell a win.

Any notion that a fourth-straight loss will cost Golden his job simply isn’t true.

If by some behind-the-scenes miracle the fourth-year coach and Miami are parting ways in the coming weeks, a win or loss on Saturday will have zero impact on that … and based on what is, there’s zero reason to believe Golden will be anywhere but Coral Gables next fall, with at best, some position coach turnover.

Sending out a handful of NFL-bound Canes on a win, ending a three-game losing streak and trying to gain an ounce of recruiting momentum with a post-season narrative of knocking off a perennial SEC East power—while also ending a seven-year bowl win drought for Miami—it makes Saturday afternoon in Shreveport a bit more important than some folks are willing to admit.

THE PREDICTION: Meh. Nothing would be a shocker, here as both the Hurricanes and Gamecocks have shown flashes of greatness, while also proving to be two of the most-underachieving teams in the nation. This one is a toss-up, as proven by a line that was hovering around even for weeks, until the lined moved to Miami by a field goal.

For simply no reason other than not wanting to imagine a scenario where the Canes end the year on a four-game losing streak, picking Miami over South Carolina, 34-31 in what should be a down-to-the-wire finish.

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