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It truly is impossible to fathom when you stop and think about it; three straight losses to North Carolina.

Yes, Butch Davis is a solid coach and yes, he’s turned that program around, but law of averages would have you believing that Miami would’ve taken at least one since Randy Shannon assumed head coaching duties.

Funny how perception becomes reality as disgruntled fans talk about Davis “owning” Shannon or the Tar Heels “kicking the Canes ass” since the fourth-year coach took over. In the end, sure, it’s all about who gets the “W”. Can’t debate that, but you can argue legend versus truth.

Turnovers were the difference-maker each of the past three seasons. Miami threw ten interceptions with a different quarterback under center each year. North Carolina had one turnover in those same twelve quarters of play.

In 2007 the Canes fell behind 27-0 at the half, pulled to within a touchdown entering the third quarter and Kyle Wright gave it away with two fourth quarter picks – the final, with a 1st and goal from the Miami eight.

A year later both sides of the ball failed the Canes. A ten-point lead with ten to play, the defense gave up a 74-yard strike to Hakeem Nicks while conservative second half playcalling from then-offensive coordinator Patrick Nix set the tone.

Under four minutes to play, a three-point lead and Nix called three straight runs with Graig Cooper, the final on 3rd and 12. North Carolina got the ball back, scored and took the lead.

Miami got one last shot, but Robert Marve’s strike to the back of the end zone sailed through the fingertips of Kayne Farquharson and into the mitts of a Heels’ defender.

Last season, a Wright-like performance when a banged up Jacory Harris had four interceptions of his own – two picks sixes – in a nine-point loss where the Canes outgained the Heels by over a hundred total yards, shredding their highly-touted defense.

Miami actually topped North Carolina yardage-wise each of the past three years, with three different quarterbacks, offensive coordinators and defensive coordinators. This series really has been about everything except Butch versus Randy, most notably the football gods and their sense of humor, or lack thereof.

This time around an entirely different set of circumstances as North Carolina travels south with a shell of the team they expected to field when the season kicked off. Six players are missing the entire season – Charles Brown, Robert Quinn, Greg Little, Brian Gupton, Jonathan Smith and Marvin Austin, who has been booted from the squad.

Kendric Burney was rumored to be back this game, but is still out, as are Michael McAdoo and Devon Ramsey. Others have been suspended but have since returned, including Da’Norris Searcy, Denuta Williams, Shaun Draughn, Linwan Euwell and Ryan Houston (though there is talk of a redshirt).

Quite possible the Heels’ biggest loss comes from injury, not hot water as tight end Zack Pianalto broke his fibula last week and will miss the remainder of the season. Pianalto was quarterback T.J. Yates’ favorite target and he had five receptions for 51 yards against the Canes last season. (Yet another tight end who was running amok over Miami’s defense last year.)

Few ever thought they’d see the day that North Carolina’s roster read more like a rap sheet than Miami’s, but we never expected a basketball school to take three straight from a football powerhouse, further proving the parity in today’s game as well as the leveled playing field.

Personnel aside, UNC has been resilient this season. A near upset of now-sixth ranked LSU in the opener, after falling behind 30-10 at the half. (Pianalto couldn’t haul in a would-be game winner on the game’s final play after the Heels held the Tigers scoreless in the second half.)

A week later North Carolina fell to Georgia Tech, but has rattled off four straight wins – Rutgers, East Carolina, Clemson and Virginia, giving the Heels and the Canes matching 4-2 records entering this weekend.

Lack of proven talent aside (re: suspensions), North Carolina is the type of team that gives Miami fits. Built more like a SEC team than an ACC squad, the Heels will get physical and the Canes need to enter this contest having learned and recovered from the punch in the mouth Florida State delivered weeks back.

There aren’t too many times you get a ‘do over’ but that’s exactly what Miami faces tomorrow night. Another night game against an important conference rival. Back home a week after a road win. Nationally televised audience tuning in and a fan base clamoring for a victory.

We can call this a ‘must-win’ game for Shannon, but it’s not. Not as far as the administration is concerned, at least. A new contract has been signed, it’s year four and there’s a lot of ball left to play. It would take a colossal failure for UM’s top brass to dump the fourth-year coach come December. Losses against North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech would possibly seal Randy’s fate at 7-5, but let’s not go there until it’s time.

This is a winnable game and it absolutely is season-defining. A win and you have Virginia and Maryland on deck, which could have the Canes 7-2 for the Georgia Tech road trip mid-November. A loss and you’re staring down the barrel of 4-3 with little reason to cheer, momentum lost and the ACC title most likely an impossibility.

A win tomorrow doesn’t erase what happened against Florida State, but it gets this program one step closer to Charlotte and at this point of the year it’s about progressing, not regressing.

When you look at the college football landscape this season you’ve seen some big time wins and some devastating losses. What you haven’t seen out of Miami yet is that ‘signature win’ which so many others have picked up. Is this finally the weekend? Quite possibly.

Those who don’t believe, I can’t argue. I get your frustration and I’m right there, too. Prove it and then I’ll believe. It’s an understandable approach. As I searched for reasons to buy into a Miami win this weekend, I came up with the following.

>>> Though there’s been some lackluster play, this is still the same squad that held their own at Ohio State, dominated Pitt and forced six turnovers at Clemson. At that point of the year the mindset was that only Miami could beat Miami and if this coaching staff has these kids ready, a win over a depleted North Carolina bunch is very plausible.

>>> Harris, while still appearing mentally frazzled and distant, hasn’t killed the Canes the past few weeks. Three pick in three games, compared to the turnover machine he was in Columbus.

The deep ball is still off, but even more off, the playcalling of Mark Whipple. Seeing Miami in a five wide receiver set on third and short and throwing deep twice on fourth and short last week, both were as illogical as the early third and long draws called the week prior.

A year ago Miami converted 81% of its trips to the red zone, finding a way to put points on the board. This year’s red zone scoring ranks 102nd out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams and the Canes rank 77th annually regarding third down conversions, as opposed to 16th last season.

Opposing defensive coordinators seemed to have solved the mystery that was UM’s offense for the first two games last year – Florida State and Georgia Tech. Beyond becoming predictable, sometimes the Canes simply defy logic. At Duke, Harris’ arm was called on 34 times – 20 of those passes longer than ten yards. When going short, Harris was 11-of-14 for 84 yards and a touchdown.

Again, stick to higher percentage, shorter passing plays and rely on the receivers’ speed and legs to make plays, not Jacory’s arm.

>>> Coach Whip, for better or worse, Harris is your guy. This isn’t the NFL and you can’t cut anybody, turning the gig over to a league vet you signed Monday morning. The mark of a good coach is finding a way to make your players successful. If you want to be cute with the Madden-style, fourth down deep ball against Duke, so be it. Against a stout North Carolina defense, you move the chains and pick up first downs with higher percentage plays.

>>> The return of Lamar Miller will boost Miami’s ground game tremendously. Miller had some solid runs against Pitt and Clemson, both on the heels of an 88-yard kickoff return at Ohio State week two.

No one doubts that Damien Berry is the guy, but Miller seems to be a more solid number two than Mike James, who is the Canes best number three. That trio needs to set the tone in this physical game and Miller needs to be the x-factor against a stout, fundamentally strong defense.

>>> Although it was only two receptions, they might’ve been two of the most important this season when Asanti Cleveland made his presence felt at Duke. Chase Ford has dropped too many passes to be considered a facet of this offense and Harris needs his tight end back.

Dedrick Epps and Jimmy Graham were two of Harris’ faves last season and their 36 receptions, 460 yards and eight touchdowns last season added another dimension to the offense. To date, Ford, Cleveland and Richard Gordon have 10 receptions for 90 yards and one touchdown.

>>> Lastly, what can the Miami defense do now that Yates doesn’t have Pialanto to worry about? Dwight Jones was ‘the guy’ at wideout last week, but Pianalto is the legitimate ‘go to’. If Brandon Harris and the secondary can focus on Jones and the front seven can contain Draughn and Houston (if he plays), it’s a battle the Canes D can and must win.

Turnovers have been the difference the past three seasons and Miami’s staff knows that. Stress protection of the football and put Harris in position to make plays – not to give the game away. The Canes can move the ball and finally have a stout enough defense that is making plays.

Last week turnovers were created, but not enough were capitalized on. Again, you can leave points on the field against Duke, but not North Carolina.

Shannon and staff won’t say it, but they know what’s on the line. It’s an ocean between 5-2 and 4-3, not to mention two ACC losses before November. This one is do or die and whether they admit it or not, there better have been a sense or urgency stressed to these player. Especially after the Florida State debacle.

Unfortunately this is the proverbial lose-lose game. Beat the Heels and Shannon will hear that’s what he should’ve done due to the all the suspensions. Fall to a lesser team that enters with a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude and you’ll wake up with ‘For Sale’ signs in the yard Sunday morning.

I won’t even attempt to predict the rest of the season with this in flux team, but I believe the stars are finally aligned and Miami finally gets one over North Carolina.

Night game at home and memories of the FSU upset still fresh. ACC rival many of these kids have never beaten. Depleted Tar Heels squad. It’s time.

Miami 30

North Carolina 20

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