Breaking down CFN’s Miami Hurricanes ’08 analysis…

CollegeFootballNews.com broke down the 2008 version of the Miami Hurricanes earlier today. Their Miami preview was pretty solid, but being that CFN has a slew of teams to analyze and only so much time and manpower to do so… I figured I’d take a stab at things and break down their breakdown even further.

The CFN opening: “How patient can Miami be? While there’s a good nucleus of players to build around, like RB Javarris James, it could be tempting to throw several true freshmen from this year’s great recruiting class to the wolves. Check out the CFN Preview of a Hurricane team that should be better, but should still be a year away.”

Hard to disagree that the Canes are at least a year away, despite the beliefs of some of the uber diehards. Miami did reel in a top-ranked class this past February and Randy Shannon has definitely righted the ship, but until the depth returns Miami is still going to have some ups and downs.

A week or so ago I broke down the 2004 tussel with Louisvile, where Miami railled to a 41-38 comeback victory. If you look at the names on that roster, the Canes were loaded and two-deep at some positions. Compare that to 2001 where Miami was damn near three-deep in several spots, it’s all a far cry from 2008 where the Canes simply don’t have the depth to make a legit run and beat some of the bigger name teams on the schedule.

Sure, anything can happen and that’s why they play the game… but it’d take a near flawless season by the Canes, who’d have to remain injury-free, hit the ground running regarding the new youth movement and pull a few upsets to gain the momentum needed to become anything close to a contender in 2008.

This season is all about improvement, valuable playing time for younger players, winning the close games Miami has dropped the past few years and proving the Canes are on the right track, in an effort to haul in another big time class in 2009.

“Although this latest recruiting class has brought a spark and some rare positive national pub back to the Miami program, it’s not likely to have a profound impact on the Hurricanes’ win total in 2008.”

Gotta love the “rare positive national pub” jab. Typical. Moving on, I slightly disagree with this class not having a “profound impact on the Hurricanes’ win total in 2008.” Miami dropped seven games last year. Losses to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Virginia were utter beatdowns with no way to spin positively.

That said, losses to North Carolina, Georgia Tech, NC State and Boston College were all winnable games. A 27-0 halftime deficit was the difference-maker in a 33-27 loss at UNC. An inability to stop Tashard Choice on the ground in the second half gave GT the 17-14 win. A 1 of 14 performance by then-quarterback Kirby Freeman caused The U to fall in OT, 19-16 to NCST and even the 28-14 season finale at BC was 14-14 with 11:21 left in the contest.

5-7 could’ve, should’ve and would’ve been 9-3 if last year’s team had a little more depth, experience and heart. With a lot of the ‘wrong’ players gone and the right players in place, Miami can grow leaps and bounds this upcoming season. The ACC crown is still a year away, but winning most of last year’s losing efforts is a reality.

Offensively: “The last time Miami started a freshman under center, Bernie Kosar was a teenager on campus in the 1980s. It’ll happen again this year, as Robert Marve tries to reverse a recent trend of inconsistency at quarterback and a last place ACC finish in passing. He’ll be surrounded by 10 players with something to prove, particularly RB Javarris James and WR Sam Shields. James is looking to bounce back from an injury-riddled sophomore season and a drop in production. Shields has a world-class blend of speed, burst, and leaping ability, but needs to put it all together to finally reach his enormous potential.”

Ten players have something to prove, but it all starts and finishes with Robert Marve. End of story. Miami has been a non-factor offensively since Ken Dorsey rode out of town with a 38-2 record.

True, ol’ Brock Berlin had his share of big time wins while at The U and wound up 5-0 against Florida and Florida State — but he’s also the gunslinger who didn’t sling in a 31-7 loss at Virginia Tech, a 10-6 loss to Tennessee, a putrid second half collapse against Clemson (L, 24-17 OT) and another big time faceplant to end the 2004 season with an ACC title on the line (L, 16-10 to the Hokies).

Marve needs to be “the man” and needs to hit the ground running. The Canes will go as far as their quarterback takes them. Period. Yes, Sam Shields needs to be the wideout everyone expects and the frosh and soph wide outs need to step up, but Marve needs to look more Dorseyesque than Kyle-Wronged.

A healthy Javarris James and beefed up Graig Cooper are going to take some of the pressure off the passing attack, while a more experienced offensive line needs to prove their worth.

Defense: “The Cane defense will be looking to rebound from a November collapse that saw it sink to an un-Miami-like 10th place ACC finish in scoring D. While LB Colin McCarthy and DE Eric Moncur will be the catalysts, new coordinator Bill Young will also be weaving in a handful of younger players, including blue-chip true freshmen Marcus Forston, Arthur Brown, and Sean Spence. Keep an eye on sophomore DE Allen Bailey, a converted linebacker who has torn it up in the offseason and possesses a ridiculous combination of size, speed, and strength.”

The real key defensively has less to do with the players and more to do with the head honcho pulling the strings. Bill Young is your difference-maker here. He’s as important to this defense as Marve is to the offense. Shannon ran the defense from 2001-2006 and there’s no mystery why 2007 was the abortion of season as it was; Tim Walton. Walton didn’t have the pedigree to run Miami’s defense. He couldn’t improvise or adjust on the fly and the Canes paid dearly. Most notably in the 48-0 loss to Virginia where the Cavs seems to run the same few offensive plays and the Canes never found a way to stop them.

The upgrade from Walton to Young is the difference between a Yugo and a muscle car. Young is a wily veteran who’s made his name on gameplanning for each week’s particular opponents and employing the blitz. Young might already have more talent in Miami than he had in just over half a decade in Kansas. The Canes team speed and Young’s scheming are going to make this a completely different defense than witnessed in 2007.

And yes, names like Marcus Forston, Arthur Brown and Sean Spence are going to be immediate impact players. Colin McCarthy and Eric Moncur have to pick up where they left off last year and they have to get better with this addition of newer, yet raw, talent. Allen Bailey is going to be an utter freak this season and will be a household name by year’s end. No doubt.

Schedule: The Canes will know just how much better they’ve gotten this off-season in a big hurry. After a warm-up against Charleston Southern, road dates at Florida and Texas A&M could either set the tone for the season or show just how far the program still has to go. On the flip side, the big Coastal showdown against Virginia Tech is at home, missing Clemson and Boston College from the Atlantic, and getting Florida State in Miami are all tremendous breaks. Closing up with three road dates (Virginia, Georgia Tech and NC State) in the final four, with the home game against the Hokies, isn’t a plus.

One has to almost pray a hurricane warning is in effect September 6th when Miami is slated to go to Gainesville. This will be the first time in the past six meetings that A) the Canes aren’t ranked and B) that the Gators will be the higher ranked team. There was a formula to Miami’s six-game win-streak against Florida and that’s not the case in 2008. A road game with a freshman QB on one side of the ball and a Heisman winner on the other also doesn’t bode well.

The Canes had a similar experience last year getting #4 Oklahoma on the road the second week of the season and we all remember how that played out (L, 51-13). That said, it didn’t truly “set the tone” for 2007. The Canes could’ve absorbed the out of conference loss and moved forward.

The true tone-setter was a 24-14 win against Duke where Miami nursed – and almost blew – a 17-14 lead with upwards of three minutes remaining. If the Canes struggled against the Blue Devils, how would Miami fare the rest of the way conference-wise? How about 2-6 — with the other win, an inexplicable upset at Florida State.

Wins against Florida or Texas A&M would be great feathers in a young team’s cap, but the tone-setter is North Carolina on September 27th. Earn revenge for last season, get to 1-0 in ACC play and gear up for the annual showdown with Florida State the following week.

The home schedule is favorable, but Miami has three road games in November – @Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and @ NC State. Sandwiched in there, a home game against Virginia Tech.

This Miami team will have to actually get BETTER as the year goes on and not backslide like they did in 2007. Games in Gainesville and College Station can literally be thrown out the window as long as this team is ready for ACC play.

The Rest: CFN says James is the best offensive player – I like Cooper. I think the added weight and explosiveness are the difference. James will be much better this year, but I think Coop is the more special player.

Defensively CFN gives the nod to McCarthy, but I like Moncur. Defensive line is the key this season and Moncur needs to be in 2007 what Calais Campbell should’ve been in 2007. Pressuring opposing quarterbacks and stuffing the run at the line will take the pressure off the linebackers and secondary. Moncur needs a monster season.

Everyone’s in agreement that the November 13th match up against Virginia Tech is the game of the year. The ACC could be on the line and Miami will have nine games under their belt by that point of the season. We’ll all know by mid-November if this team has jelled or not. This game could mean everything if the Canes have come together or mean little if Miami stumbles in 4-5.

CFN calls the season a ‘success’ if Miami goes 8-4 and returns to the postseason – and that’s the magic number in my book, as well. Eight wins is doable with this home schedule and OOC match ups. But it’s also not a gimmie when coming off of 5-7 and some of the shellackings the Canes took last season.

As successful season is one that gives everyone hope for a legit run in 2009. To do that, it’ll take the Canes overachieving instead of underachieving. Marve needs to get Miami one step closer back to being Quarterback U. Receivers need to step up and keep progressing – which is a lot considering guys like Lance Leggett and Ryan Moore actually regressed during their tenure at The U.

Guys like Shields and James need to reach their potential, while younger guys need to have an immediate impact.

Defensively, Young needs to be as good as advertised and truly put his fingerprints all over that side of the football. His players need to be quick learners and Miami needs to set the tone early on, instead of simply “reacting” to what other offenses throw their way.

Some other not-so-fun stats that need to change? Fourth quarter scoring. Gone are the days of holding up ‘four fingers’ and owning the final period of play. Miami needs to take that back, pronto. Last season the Canes were outscored 112-61 in the fourth en route to seven losses.

Regarding third down conversions, opponents were 67 of 174 (39%)and Miami was 61 of 167 (31%). The Canes needs to wake up on offense and shut ’em down on defense.

All in all, a good enough outlook from CFN. Now we’ll see how fair other publications prove to be as summer is near.

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